EUR TRY

EURTRY Currency pair flag

Latest EUR TRY Analysis

A focus on the Euro versus the Eurozone periphery (EURSEK, EURPLN, EURTRY)

  • The Euro has seen a strong rebound in early June versus the US Dollar (EURUSD through notable resistances at the 1.1264/65 peaks, as the US$ has weakened due to concerns about a deteriorating outlook for the US economy and a more dovish FOMC.
  • HOWEVER, the Euro remains vulnerable to further losses versus the Eurozone periphery currencies.
  • Here we focus on the intermediate-term downside risks for the Euro versus the Swedish Krona, the Polish Zloty and the Turkish Lira (EURSEK, EURPLN and EURTRY).

EURSEK

A low-level consolidation to start June after the selloff from mid-May that saw a reversal of the uptrend line from latter April and through numerous supports to reject the up leg from early May.

This activity leaves intermediate-term bearish pressures intact and sets the bias lower for early June, this week, and also for the month.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 10.566.

  • Lower targets would be 10.432 and 10.378
  • What Changes This? Above 10.726 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 10.849 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURSEK Chart

eursek

EURPLN

A plunge lower in latter May into early June has reinforced the roll lower in mid-May from 4.3139, from below the key March failure peak at 4.3160, to leave an intermediate-term downside risk within a broader consolidation.

The intermediate-term threat is to the lower end of the 2019 trading range, which would look to offer support between 4.2699 and 4.2589

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 4.2371.

  • Lower targets would be 4.2699 and maybe towards 4.2589.
  • What Changes This? Above 4.3039 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 4.3160 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURPLN Chart

eurpln

EURTRY

A late May plunge lower reinforced the earlier May reversal below the accelerated, up trend line from late March to confirming an intermediate-term top and an intermediate-term bear theme.

The push still lower into early June has reinforces both the short- and intermediate-term bear trends, leaving risks lower for both this week and at least into mid-June.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 6.4537.

  • Lower targets would be 6.2414, 6.0000 and maybe 5.9568
  • What Changes This? Above 6.8999 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 7.0321 is needed for a bull theme.

Daily EURTRY Chart

eurtry

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Other major currency pairs


BUY - rate is expected to increase, i.e. the first currency gains value against the second currency.
SELL - rate is expected to go down, i.e. the first currency is expected to lose value against the second currency.


EUR/TRY – Live and Historical Rates

The EUR is a major currency, while the Turkish Lira (TRY) isn’t considered one. The overall small influence of the latter on the global economy means that the pair isn’t a major currency pair either. The above chart illustrates the amount of TRY one will need to purchase a EUR.

The EUR

The common currency of 21 Eurozone countries, the Euro is indeed the second most traded currency in the world as well as the second largest reserve currency. Introduced in 1999, it has represented the biggest and most ambitious attempt in history at creating a lasting currency union that would eventually encompass an entire continent. Despite its shortcomings and vulnerabilities laid bare by the 2008 economic crisis, the EUR is set to continue to expand – at least on paper. Several nations are required by treaty to eventually join the Eurozone, but some of these EU members have been dragging their feet on the issue lately.

The TRY

Introduced way back in 1844, the Turkish Lira is mostly known for its massive devaluations over the years. During its long history, it was pegged to other currencies several times. In 1946 for instance, it was pegged to the USD and the French Franc. The TKY’s first devaluation came in 1960, when it was pegged to the dollar again, following this initial meltdown. Up until 2001, its value withered away spectacularly, sometimes at the staggering rate of 40% a year. In 2007, a new version of the TKY was introduced, which has managed to hold on to its value within reasonable levels, since.

EURTRY Analysis

The EUR/TKY pair is a pretty volatile one, thus it offers speculators high risk opportunities quite often. Turkey used to be interested in joining the EU and eventually adopting the EUR, but it has all but given up on that bid now.

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