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Latest USD TRY Analysis and Forecasts

USD/TRY Breakout Actuates 6.2446 May 2019 TGT

Persistent hammering of USD/TRY on a mixture of dollar strength and Lira weakness helps bullish players lift prices above the vital make-or-break 76.4% fibonacci level at 6.055. With strategic risks skewed to the topside and the corrective intermediate downtrend coming to an end, key tactical target levels have been activated at 6.1510 and Summer 19 high at 6.2446. Lira has maintained an offer tone as disputes between Turkey and Syria continue to hit the fragile currency; The focus is on whether bulls can sustain their dominance, even as short-term momentum models enter overbought conditions; we favour the upside on ‘dip-plays’ into the 6.055 support level or even the 21-EMA at 6.009 for a penultimate target at 6.2446.

  • TRY/ZAR may provide an effective hedge as the ZAR underperforms the TRY; Above 2.4955 on TRY/ZAR could offer a bullish opportunity.
USDTRY chart

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Other major currency pairs

BUY - rate is expected to increase, i.e. the first currency gains value against the second currency.
SELL - rate is expected to go down, i.e. the first currency is expected to lose value against the second currency.

USD/TRY – Live and Historical Rates

Despite the size and strength of the Turkish economy, the Turkish Lira (TKY) is not a major currency. The USD on the other hand is indeed just that. The pair that the two currencies make does not qualify as a major, or as a commodity pair. The chart presented on this page is a graphical illustration of the amount of TKY required to purchase a USD.


Having started the floating trend back in the 1970s, the USD is indeed a floating currency. That does not mean of course that it is completely unleashed from all control, like some of the other floating currencies out there. The Federal Reserve is rather strict in keeping the greenback on a leash, through the manipulation of its interest rates.

The USD is without a doubt the most important currency of the world economy. At one point, all other currencies were pegged to it in one form or another. The USD is the most traded currency in the world as well as the most popular reserve currency.


The Turkish Lira was last introduced to the world markets in 1844. Since then, its ride has been anything but smooth. It went through periods of fierce devaluation, so in 2007, a new Lira version was introduced, which set the parity with the USD to 1.26. The exchange rate has remained relatively stable since, as a result of the new monetary policies of the Turkish authorities and the strengthening of the Turkish economy. Agriculture serves as the bulwark of the Turkish economy, though manufacturing is a significant part of it too.

USDTRY Analysis

The difference in size between the Turkish and the US economies is obvious. Due to this fact, Turkish economic performance has a significant impact on this pair. Another factor to watch is Turkey’s political stability.

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