A great deal is going on in the macro department and this can make it difficult to understand where risk is flowing in broader market as well as the G-10 FX space. A constant back-and-forth between virus related risks and U.S.-China tensions is continuously squeezing equity rallies which has somewhat seeped into G-10 FX risk … Continued
Akif SH. Din MSTA, CFTe, 2018 Bronwen Wood Memorial Prize Winner, has a solid understanding of global markets, fundamental analysis as well as having a vast amount of knowledge in technical analysis. Akif has experience as a proprietary trader, fund manager and technical analyst, providing daily market commentary and analysis to institutional clients. He has analysed & traded various asset classes including, G10 & EM FX, Fixed Income & Rates, European Equity Indices, Energy, Agricultural and Soft Commodities.
Akif first studied at LAT London, where he learnt the basics of financial markets and their structure all the way through to trade setups, risk management and Options trading. During his time at LAT, Akif gained tuition and mentorship from leading financial market professionals, including Steve Miley. Akif attained an ABE Level 5 Diploma in Professional Applied Financial Market Trading with Futures & Options and achieved the highest ever mark on the course since it began.
After completing his studies, Akif began trading his own capital across G-10 FX, Commodities & Indices. In late 2017, he secured a position as a proprietary trader in the City. Here, Akif had the opportunity to trade G-10 and EM FX, Commodities and European Equity bourses and apply heavily testing proprietary technical analysis strategies. He further expanded his knowledge on risk management and learnt how to code with Python to build custom charts and signals.
With an interest in writing, Akif began writing on his journey as a young trader for a UK based site called www.traderlife.co.uk. Here, he wrote a series about how he found an interest in Markets and his journey so far.
During the latter stages at the fund, Akif wrote internal TA reports for across G-10, EM FX, precious and base metals, energy and agricultural commodities.
As a young trader, Akif was interested in developing his knowledge within financial markets, especially Technical Analysis. After advice from his ex-mentors, Akif chose the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) to deepen his understand of Technical methods within trading. At the STA, he learnt advanced Technical Analysis methods, risk management strategies and techniques alongside a range of other vital topics. He attained a high-mark distinction and in 2019, was bestowed with the prestigious Bronwen Wood Memorial Prize, an honour only a few hold. He holds the MSTA and CFTe (Certified Financial Technician) professional designations (accredited by the STA and IFTA).
Akif now provides daily technical analysis, reports, commentary, trade ideas and insight across G-10 and EM FX, Fixed Income, Credit & Rates, Commodities and Equity markets for a global institutional client base. He continues to trade is own capital using both fundamental and technical analysis with STEM methodology for form a market view. Akif concentrates on Spot FX, commodity, Index futures and FX Options.
Regional cross EUR/GBP has widened its bullish management, infringing a bear Cloud Top and the Mar-Apr correction midpoint at 0.9085, to shift the attention to the vital 61.8% fib @ 0.9183; So far, mkt has surged 77pips, breaching its 70pip 10-day ATR value which could imply that prices have completed their sharp leg higher today … Continued
Sterling Rate markets are stealing the limelight today as a dire sub 1% inflation reading added to speculation that the BoE may have to join its German and Japanese peers in substantial policy measure, including the potential of dropping the benchmark interest rate below zero. This would aid an increasingly huge bond-buying programme in a … Continued
EUR/GBP has managed to sustain positivity as dips were bought yday into the Cloud Base at 0.8890, potentially augmenting bullish risks for a potential rally into the Mar-Apr midpoint at 0.9085. Euro strength stems from German and French led plans for a 500-billion euro EU Coronavirus recovery fund and debt issuance. This has allowed premiums … Continued
Gauging risk-sentiment amid global lockdown measures has been a key challenge. However, a ratio that can offer insight into the prevailing risk tone is the XAU/XAG cross. It essentially tracks precious metals over industrials (Silver known for its industrial applications and well bid as factories restart production) and therefore can help us understand how traditional … Continued
In this special report, we review some of the major moves across global assets (excluding G-10 FX – Stay tuned for an exclusive FX Chart Pack for Q2) that have shocked the entire mkt in Q1 2020. We will go through interesting Global Equity Benchmarks, Emerging Markets, Commodities and Bonds. COVID-19 – The Catalyst It … Continued
As global central banks turn on the stimulus taps by slashing rates and restarting large QE programs, global equity benchmarks have recovered from their CV pandemic crash lows into mean-reversion. With fresh bullish targets projected on a Point & Figure model, we eye vital breakouts required in DAX and STOXX 50 Futures to widen tactical … Continued
Treasury Futures rallied to new ATHs, smashing past the 132.14 September peak as the deadly Coronavirus begins to spread around the world, even as cases in China fell; Gilts and Bunds have fallen off their respective day highs but Treasury’s have retained a bid tone as participant’s dash to safe haven assets. Mkt has violated … Continued
Persistent hammering of USD/TRY on a mixture of dollar strength and Lira weakness helps bullish players lift prices above the vital make-or-break 76.4% fibonacci level at 6.055. With strategic risks skewed to the topside and the corrective intermediate downtrend coming to an end, key tactical target levels have been activated at 6.1510 and Summer 19 … Continued
Dollar bulls continue to power forward, churning through key resistanace levels. The lastest, most notable casualties were rallies past the 100% fib ext. at 99.19 then the 99.42 wick high; Prices are quickly approaching the 2019 high at 99.67 where we’d potentially see some profit taking and resistive pressures occur, especially as momentum models look … Continued
GBP is under broad pressure as dovish weekend comments from Bank of England’s monetary policy committee ratchets rate cut bets. Jan. 31 BoE rate cut odds jump to 50-50 vs. a 0% chance of a move just a week ago. GBP/USD has pierced key support from the Ichimoku Cloud Top and pressures a move to key … Continued
EUR/GBP is on track for a big week as sellers breach the YTD low at 0.8469, continuing bearish developments since August and tapping prices last seen in May 2017. The pair is testing an important corrective fib level at 0.8435. This is the 38.2% fib of the 2015-2016 bull trend and may offer longer-term bulls … Continued
Cable’s recent surge on Brexit europhia had caused prices to scrape the 1.30 level for the first time since May. Initially, it may have seemed that GBP/USD found resistance due to 1.30 being a round, psychological figure, or had felt bearish pressures from the nearby 76.4% fibo of the March-September decline at 1.3046. However, with … Continued
Short-term EUR/USD buyers bought dips today, stalling a correction lower at the Ichimoku Cloud Top at 1.1105 as the market awaits the ECB. October has been a strong month for the common currency as shorts fail to dig lower at the foundations put up by bulls and consequently buyers have shifted the near-term view to … Continued
NZD/USD continued higher on Tuesday after yesterday’s Bullish reversal candle pattern. The Piercing Pattern, which is similar to the Bullish Engulfing skews s-t risks higher. Market closed above the midpoint of the of the Friday bear candle suggesting a s-t turn in sentiment. Reinforcing the pattern is the Bullish Divergence on the RSI. RSI formed a higher low … Continued
Sterling has staged an impressive rally as GBP/USD posting its biggest 2-day rally in 10 months with an index posting a 0.63% rise over the same period. A trade weighted GBP index was trading down 0.73% earlier this week, until the currency caught a broad bid on Wednesday & Thursday as No-Deal Brexit fears faded. … Continued
Copper Futures continue to decline to its lowest since Q2 2017 as a grim global outlook persists and fading prospects of a de-escalation of the U.S.-China trade spat hits sentiment. USD strength is also weighing on Copper as a stronger dollar pushes down dollar-denominated commodities. Market sustains negative angle of attack as it drops through … Continued
BEARISH; Risks remain skewed to the downside for the UK benchmark despite late recovery attempts. Benchmark FTSE 100 closed higher this week for the first time in August after selling off for 4 consecuvtive weeks. The export-heavy index got crushed by sterling’s recovery, U.S.-China trade spat and a sharp drop in mining stocks. Miners were … Continued
Sterling took a hit across the board after headlines about the British government possibly asking the Queen to prorogue parliament. Gilts pushed higher in response with cable taking a knock to touch its lowest in 4 days. The pair touched its highest since July, but a bearish Andrews Pitchfork scuppered further upside. AP keeps dynamic … Continued
DAILY: BEARISH; Upside fails to materialise as mkt falls back towards 7132 – 50% retrace FTSE fell sharply as the U.S. FED dampened hopes of hefty interest rate cuts, while exporter stocks slipped as GBP rose after Brexit related comments from German chancellor Angela Merkel (read our GBP/USD piece) Fundamentals fall inline with our already … Continued
Sterling jumped on Thursday after Germany’s Angela Merkel says Brexit backstop solution is possible by October 31st. In response GBP/USD pushed to its highest since late July, breaking above the median line of a bearish Andrews Pitchfork. Close above 1.2249/50 could allow GBP to continue higher, targeting the following key upside levels: c.1.2335 – Upper … Continued
DAILY FTSE 100: BEARISH; Market continues its bounce of lows. UK benchmark continues rally from Aug lows @ 7020 set last Thursday, trading back above the 50% retrace of the Dec18-Jul19 uptrend. Market remains negative on the medium term as it trades below our key EMA’s. 50/21 EMA’s continue trending lower, 200 begins to tilt … Continued
GOLD broke the 1500 level for the first time since 2013, a psychologically important figure. In our prior post we highlighted topside targets to GOLD as the precious metal pushed out of a consolidation pattern. Safe haven demand has underpinned GOLD amid rising global trade tensions and as the global economic picture becomes more gloomy. Central banks … Continued
We downgrade our neutral conviction stated in our prior post on Copper to Short. Bears finally pierced a major uptrend line dating back from 2016. Trend line, now at 2.6099 may offer bears further opportunities to sell on retracements. Trending setups reinforce the near-term negativity as 50/21-Week EMA’s continue lower. Momentum setups too confirm bear themes as … Continued
We upgrade our neutral conviction on GOLD, mentioned in our prior post, to buy. Yesterday saw a solid 1.3% rise in XAUUSD on the back of a weaker USD, Middle East tensions and Ray Dalio comments. The precious metal broke above key 1,438.63 resistance and a consolidation pattern. A close near the top reinforces bull … Continued
DXY continues to grip key Fibonacci support post U.S. CPI data U.S. June Core CPI comes in at 0.3%, its largest monthly increase since Jan 2018. US Treasury Yields rally. EuroDollar & Fed Funds Futures drop, suggesting lower chance of rate cut. After yesterday’s rejection and 0.45% selloff from the 61.8% fibo at 97.15 of … Continued
GOLD SPOT: Approaching key support; We remain neutral on our gold position as the precious metal continues to slide from 6-year highs. Market closed below 23.6% fibo at 1,398.38 (May-June rally) reinforcing near-term negativity and potential overstretched conditions. Key support lies at 1,381 in line with an up sloping 21-Day EMA. Break below this level … Continued
In this special publication, we go through a number of AUD/X charts & setups that have caught our attention. We find the AUD at critical areas, which could dictate the directional bias of the AUDTWI in the 2H 2019. Across our momentum breadth studies for 19 AUD/X pairs: RSI Breadth – 68% bullish. However, divergence … Continued
Summary of the June monthly candlestick, along with trending & momentum developments across G-10 FX and implications for months ahead. EURUSD Monthly Candle: Strong bull candle with close above April & May highs. Large body shows strong sentiment. Implication: Trimming losses after April/May show indecision through long legged Doji and Spinning Top patterns. Confirms a … Continued