Andre Gratian

Cycles:  Looking ahead!  90-yr cycle – last low: 1932. Next low: 2022 7-yr cycle – last low: 2016.  Next low: 2023 New minor low about mid-November. Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts SPX-IWM weekly charts The forte of IWM as a leading indicator is to show relative weakness to SPX at the top of an … Continued

Cycles:  Looking ahead!  90-yr cycle – last low: 1932. Next low: 2022 7-yr cycle – last low: 2016.  Next low: 2023 Nest of short-term cycle lows on about 10/15-20 Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts SPX-TRAN- IWM – daily charts In an unusual display of strength, last week IWM made a new high and surged … Continued

P&F:  Short-term projection: 3300-3260 – Objective reached on 9/18 with SPX 3292 intra-day low. Cycles:  Looking ahead!  90-yr cycle – last low: 1932. Next low: 2022 7-yr cycle – last low: 2016.  Next low: 2023 20-td – 9/17 – bottomed on 9/18 Nest of short-term cycle lows on about 10/15-20 Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of … Continued

P&F target for near-term top:  3365/3390 (projection met) Cycle cluster ahead:  45-td cycle ~8/18, 26-day ~8/25, 36-td ~8-31 Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts) SPX-TRAN daily charts:  I have sought to make clearer the divergences warning of a top between the TRAN and SPX by marking on the SPX chart with a red vertical line, … Continued

SPX- TRAN daily charts:  The purpose of showing these two charts side by side is to get an early warning of top and bottom trend-reversals.  The TRAN appears to have the ability of making us aware of a reversal in the SPX before it happens, predominantly at a top.  While weekly charts are useful for … Continued

SPX made a new 4-week high last week which seems to be the result of the 37-td cycle making its low last week.  The 40-wk cycle was expected to make a low in about another week, but Eric Hadik has suggested that it will make a high instead, this time.  He appears to be correct!  … Continued

Important Cycles Did the 4.5-year cycle bottom in March instead of waiting for its ideal low point in July?  This is a possibility according to a Hurst analyst.  Perhaps we should not be too eager to call for an early low in the 4.5-year cycle.  Of course, the 40-wk cycle is also due in mid-July, … Continued

Important Cycles A 52-day cycle making its low on 5/14 interjected itself before the next 80-day Hurst (45-td) cycle low due ~6/08. This had the effect of altering the short-term price structure.   Point & Figure Overview of SPX Intermediate trend:  I should have stayed with my previous 2970 projection!  A new distribution pattern is … Continued

Important Cycles Next 80-day Hurst (45-td) cycle due ~6/08 Point & Figure Overview of SPX Intermediate trend:  2650 minimum into 80-day cycle low. Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QChart) SPX-IWM weekly charts  The indexes made their highs two weeks ago, retested them last week, again found resistance, and closed in the middle of their weekly … Continued

Point & Figure Overview of SPX Intermediate trend:  Re-accumulation suggests~2970 Important Cycles Next 80-day cycle due ~6/08  Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QChart) SPX-IWM weekly charts  On Friday 5/8, the labor dpt. released a horrific jobs report!  SPX celebrated by tacking a 49-point advance on top of the 33-point rally that it had registered on … Continued

Point & Figure Overview of SPX Intermediate trend:  2930 was exceeded by 20 points.  Rally top?  We need a congestion pattern to establish next count. Important Cycles Next 80-day cycle due ~6/08  Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QChart) SPX-IWM weekly charts  Last week, SPX reached a little beyond its projected target of 2930 and reversed … Continued

Point & Figure overview of SPX Intermediate trend:  Estimated top of countertrend rally ~2930 (?) May have fallen short of target! Important  cycles followed I follow only a few cycles that I consider reliable in my analysis.  This is complemented by the analysis of Erik Hadik (www.insiidetrack.com). The 80-d cycle was due on 4/8(actual 4/3); … Continued

Point & Figure overview of SPX Intermediate trend:  Estimated top of countertrend rally ~2930! Important  cycles followed I follow only a few cycles that I consider reliable in my analysis.  This is complemented by the analysis of Erik Hadik (www.insiidetrack.com). The 80-d cycle was due on 4/8(actual 4/3); next on 6/8; 40-wk ~7/15; 4.5-yr or … Continued

The divergent relative strength between the two indexes is glaring, but they both participated in the third week of a countertrend rally from the 3/22 initial bear market low; and there is enough momentum to keep them going a little higher after a short pause.  However, indicators are suggesting that this rally will no be … Continued

Point & Figure overview of SPX Long term trend:  Only intermediate targets reliable at this time. Intermediate trend:  Maximum 2170-2030 this phase into mid-year after relief rally. Important  cycles followed I follow only a few cycles that I consider reliable in my analysis.  This is complemented by the analysis of Erik Hadik (www.insiidetrack.com). The 80-d … Continued

The first countertrend rally took SPX to its 200-DMA  where it was repelled. IWM did not fare nearly as well and remains with considerable relative weakness to the SPX.  There may be some additional trading within the range established this week, with the next short-term low due ~4/8.  An intermediate low is not due until … Continued

Point & Figure overview of SPX Long term trend:  Although I do have a potential lower target in mind, I will wait for some confirmation before disclosing it. Intermediate trend:  Maximum 2170 this phase.  Larger drop into mid-year after relief rally. Important  cycles followed I follow only a few cycles that I consider reliable in … Continued

Point & Figure overview of SPX Long term trend:  Although I do have a potential lower target, I do not want to disclose it at this time. Intermediate trend:  Maximum 2360 projection was filled on Friday in the futures (2380).  Initial countertrend to 2800. Important (known) cycles I follow only a few reliable cycles in … Continued

Point & Figure overview of SPX Long term trend:  It’s time to consider the possibility that the coronavirus pandemic could bring an end to the bull market.  This would become even more likely if the current correction extended below the October 2018 bottom of 2346. Intermediate trend:  Intermediate target minimum:  2620 with potential to 2360. … Continued

Point & Figure overview of SPX Long term trend:  The bull market which started in 2019 shows no sign of having run its course.  A count taken on the long term P&F chart gives us a potential target as high as 4080. P&F does not predict time; only price. (no change) Intermediate trend:  Intermediate target … Continued

The current 65-point pull-back in the SPX is only a blip on the weekly chart. And it will probably stay that way if this correction is only caused by the bottoming action of the 20-wk cycle. But we’ll need to make sure that this is confirmed by future market action. Concerns about the coronavirus is increasingly producing … Continued

Potential Short-term top Point & Figure overview of SPX Long term trend:  The bull market which started in 2009 shows no sign of having run its course.  A long count taken on the long term P&F chart gives us a potential target as high as 4080. P&F does not predict time; only price. (no change) … Continued

Market Review Point & Figure Overview of SPX Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run it’s course.  A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target to as high as 4080.  P&F does not predict time, only price. (no change) … Continued

Market Review Point & Figure Overview of SPX Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course.  A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target to as high as 4080.  P&F does not predict time, only price. (no change) … Continued

Market Review Point & Figure Overview of SPX Long-term trend: The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course.  A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target to as high as 4080.  P&F does not predict time, only price. (no change) Intermediate … Continued

Market Review Point & Figure Overview of SPX Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course.  A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target to as high as 4080.  P&F does not predict time, only price. (no change) … Continued

Point & Figure Overview of SPX Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course.  A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target to as high as 4080.  P&F does not predict time, only price. (no change) Intermediate trend: … Continued

Market Review Point & Figure Overview of SPX Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course.  A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target to as high as 4080.  P&F does not predict time, only price. (no change) … Continued

Point & Figure Overview of SPX Correctly predicting the market trend requires an objective analysis of the supply and demand forces which are constantly in play.  In my opinion, the methodology of P&F is one of the best ways to demonstrate graphically this perennial struggle. Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows … Continued

Point & Figure Overview of SPX Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course.  A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target of 3680+.  A few weeks ago, it was not clear if structurally, SPX would retest its … Continued

Market Overview Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course.  A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target of 3680+.  A few weeks ago, it was not clear if structurally, SPX would retest its 12/18 low of 2346 … Continued

Market Overview For the past three weeks SPX has been grinding higher, seemingly glued to the exterior of the lower line of the blue channel which started at the 2346 low.  That channel line has served as a strong resistance line and, sooner or later, prices are going to fall away from it, potentially indicating … Continued

Market Overview Until Thursday’s close, the price action looked toppy!  For the past week, prices had traded in a narrow range and negative divergence had appeared at the daily and hourly level, and the fear & greed index has been at “extreme greed” for over a week.  Furthermore, we are in a time frame when … Continued

Market Overview The best guesstimate is that SPX is in the process of creating an intermediate top, probably the B-wave of wave-4 of the bull market.  The only thing that would disprove this view is if market strength continued with IWM beginning to take the lead.  Since this is obviously not happening, we’ll have to … Continued

Market Overview Last week SPX and NDX made a new all-time high.  DJIA failed to do so by a small margin.  NYA (the broadest index) remained well below its January 2018 high.  And, of course, IWM clearly remains in a 14-month downtrend.  It’s obvious that the stock market, as a whole, is a mixed bag.  … Continued

SPX pushed a little higher last week, breaching the recent high of 9/15 by a tad, and challenging the all-time high of 3028 which is likely to be surpassed before this move is over.  This “exuberance” does not come as a surprise, since it was expected.  But avid bulls may soon be dismayed as the … Continued

Market Overview SPX traded in a less than 50-point range last week, continuing what appears to be the formation of an intermediate distribution top which could bring a sizeable correction when complete.   IWM, which has done a good job of acting as a barometer for SPX still provides the same reading of relative weakness, thereby … Continued

Market Overview Ever since it made its all-time high of 3028 on 7/21, SPX has been trading in a 200-point range which could either be a consolidation pattern, or the building of an intermediate top formation.  The same can be said of IWM, although the latter made its high almost a year earlier and is … Continued

Market Overview After a plunge of 137 points to 2856 early in the week, SPX staged a strong two-day rally back to 2952 to end the week with a minor loss instead of something much larger, had the 40-week cycle continued to push prices lower.  The question to ask is whether or not the 40-week … Continued

Market Overview On Friday, with daily SRSI and the A-D indicator already in the red, the daily CCI dipped into the red.  That makes it unanimous and tips the market trend from neutral to negative.  It is not something that should be ignored!  In the past, this has led to a serious decline.  In addition, … Continued

Market Overview Last week, the market action came just short of confirming an important top in SPX.  On 9/12, the index made a new rally-high of 3021, seven points shy of the 3028 top of 7/26.  There was some cautious selling going into the FOMC meeting scheduled for the following week, leading into some volatility … Continued

Market Overview Last week was the first time since the beginning of the rally from SPX 2835 that indicators displayed negative divergence at hourly, daily and weekly levels simultaneously.  This is a serious warning that the significant correction that I have been anticipating—I should say “we” because I am not the only qualified analyst to … Continued

Market Overview News that trade talks are set to resume in October (this time for real) drove the SPX to 2885, breaking above the previous consolidation highs by about 40 points.  This move, which was anticipated as possible by some EWT analysts, does not alter significantly the market condition unless the short-term trend extends much … Continued

Market Overview Since its initial drop of 200 points in late July, SPX has attempted two rallies of over 100-points each.  Both failed miserably with prices being shoved back down to the bottom of the large congestion band which has formed above 2820.  On Friday, SPX again reached  2835 minutes before the close, and started … Continued

Last week’s 800-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrials made it clear that we are in an extended, ongoing correction. Despite a strong rally at the end of the week which is most likely a counter-trend rally, we should not see the end of the corrective process until the middle of next month.  The fact … Continued

After several weeks of distribution at its recent high, the bottom dropped out and was followed by a 200-point decline in the SPX in about a week’s time.  The decline found support at the bottom trend line of a bullish channel which started to form at the December 2018 low of 2346.  That, and a … Continued

“It ain’t over till it’s over!”  IT’S OVER! My view was that for the last couple of weeks, the market was just hanging around waiting for a catalyst to put an end to its suffering!  Last week we got two!  The first was when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-point at Wednesday’s … Continued