In this special publication, we go through a number of AUD/X charts & setups that have caught our attention. We find the AUD at critical areas, which could dictate the directional bias of the AUDTWI in the 2H 2019.
Across our momentum breadth studies for 19 AUD/X pairs:
- RSI Breadth – 68% bullish.
However, divergence from another key breadth measure underpins the overall negativity.
- MACD Breadth – 78% Bearish.
AUDJPY: Risk Barometer AUDJPY retraces of lows after entering a key rejection area. Underlying fundamental themes keep AUDJPY negative. Rate now trading at a key resistance zone at c.76.06. Long-term bias persists to the downside.
Bulls need to work extremely hard to change the technical outlook for the pair. Key topside levels may offer bears some compounding opportunities. 50 EMA at 76.00 coupled with 50% fibo at 76.30 of the April-June weakening have been robust. Moreover, the RSI is failing to breach the 57 level.
Potential topside targets lie at:
- 76.61 (Cloud base)
- 77.34 (38.2% fib)
- 78 (Cloud top)
- 78.70 (Inverse H&S MPO)
If a position is loaded on the breakout then a risk zone < 75.26 (61.8% fib) would be prudent.
If a short position is established, then aim for shorts below the aforementioned risk zone.
EURAUD: Recent AUD strength clawing back some gains after selloff causes the pair to drop from 2019 highs into the cloud at 1.6068. Bearish themes exacerbated through bearish activity in the MACD. 50% fibo of the April-June rally defending gains for now at 1.6069. Risk > 1.6070 would be prudent for any shorts. Rate has potential for cloud base at 1.5971 or even 76.4% fib at 1.5869.
AUDCAD: Pair trades at a crucial level as AUD continues to underperform CAD. Solid long-term support comes in at 0.9113. Weekly insinuates a cautious tone as RSI diverges and ADX/DMI’s overstretched to the downside.
Daily AUDCAD shines a little extra light on key levels. Psychological level 0.92 is stalling bulls from advancing. In addition, 21 EMA lies at this key price providing more problems for bulls. A violation of this level could deepen topside pressures.
A break below 0.9113 would see a potential risk zone > 0.92.
AUDCHF: Recent AUD strength against safe haven CHF at crucial potential turning point. 38.2% fibo @ 0.6949 of Apr-June selloff defending the downside. 50DMA sitting neighbouring @ 0.6957. A break above may highlight a more risk-on tone in the FX space. A break above 38.2% could potentially see 0.7011 revisited. However, a rejection could see the pair trade lower targeting the 23.6% fibo at 0.6872. This would put risk levels > 0.6949.