Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- US equities retreated amid AI disruption concerns, with the S&P 500 down 1.39%, the Nasdaq off 2.10% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.23%, as defensive sectors outperformed, Treasury yields declined, oil slipped and gold advanced in a broader shift toward caution.
- January’s nonfarm payrolls rose by a stronger-than-expected 130,000 and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, signalling continued labour market resilience despite prior downward revisions, while inflation cooled more than forecast, with headline CPI easing to 2.4% year over year, reinforcing expectations that price pressures are gradually moderating even as they remain above the Federal Reserve’s target.
- In a holiday-shortened week, investors will focus on the Fed’s January Meeting Minutes, fourth-quarter GDP and the PCE Inflation report, with solid growth expected but core price pressures potentially firming, reinforcing the central bank’s cautious, data-dependent stance on future rate cuts.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were lower.
- US and European bond yields were lower on the week
- The US Dollar Index moved lower.
- Gold futures nudged higher.
- Oil futures prices prodded lower for the week.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: This week’s key central bank activity includes the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Meeting Minutes on Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes on Wednesday, and the People’s Bank of China’s Interest Rate Decision on Friday.
Macro Data Watch: Investor focus this week will be on Friday’s US PCE Inflation and GDP releases, alongside Canadian CPI and UK Employment data on Tuesday, UK CPI on Wednesday, and a raft of updates on Friday including Global Flash PMI surveys and UK Retail Sales.
Earnings Watch: Another quiet week for US fourth-quarter, though notable updates are expected from Walmart and Warner Bros Discovery.
US markets will be closed on Monday 16th February due to Presidents’ Day
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 02/16/2026 | US markets closed due to Presidents’ Day; Japanese GDP; EU Industrial Production |
| 02/17/2026 | RBA Meeting Minutes; German HICP; UK Employment Report; Canadian CPI; US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
| 02/18/2026 | Japanese Trade Report; UK CPI, PPI and RPI; US Durable Goods Orders, Industrial Production and Building Permits; FOMC Minutes |
| 02/19/2026 | US Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, EU Consumer Confidence |
| 02/20/2026 | Global Flash PMI; PBoC Interest Rate Decision; Japanese CPI; German PPI; UK Retail Sales; Canadian Retail Sales; US PCE, GDP, Personal Income and Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Fed Monetary Policy Report |
| Date | Major Earnings Data |
| 02/16/2026 | Nothing of note |
| 02/17/2026 | Medtronic |
| 02/18/2026 | Analog Devices; Booking; Moody’s; DoorDash; Garmin |
| 02/19/2026 | Walmart; Deere&Company; Newmont GoldCorp; Southern |
| 02/20/2026 | Warner Bros Discovery |
