Current Market Analysis

The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis. But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:

  • If to buy or sell an asset
  • At which levels to enter a trade
  • At which level to put the target to hopefully take profit on the trade
  • Or, if the analysis proves incorrect, when and where is the trade wrong and at which level to exit the trade.

In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.


Intermediate

Equities rebound as “risk on” theme restarts; Oil surges to $80

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Positive soundings on the US debt ceiling talks have helped riskier assets (such as stocks/ equities) in early October. The “risk off” theme that struck global financial markets in September has started to reverse back to a “risk on” theme, despite the extension to higher yields across global bond markets (led by … Continued

Intermediate

Forex markets mark time through US Jobs report

US Dollar Index goes sideways (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar has major support below (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Positive appears on Euro-Pound ahead of major support (EURGBP forecast)

Intermediate

“Risk off” moves in equities resume, US Dollar strengthens

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The “risk off” theme that had struck global financial markets earlier in September resumed into month-end as inflation concerns returned, alongside higher yield pressures. Global stock indices reversed previous recovery rebounds, looking technically vulnerable. Debt ceiling and stimulus uncertainty are also weighing on riskier assets. Although the federal government passed a short-term … Continued

Intermediate

Dollar Stalls

The US Dollar Index stalled in a major resistance zone and posts negative meaning profits taken on long positions.  US Dollar-Yen posts false breakout up and builds reversal

Intermediate

“Risk off” moves in stocks reversed, US Dollar stays strong

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The “risk off” mode that has gripped global financial markets in September due to growth and inflation concerns was intensified early last week with Evergrande contagion worries. However, these contagions fears have eased through the week, as have the growth and inflation worries, which have seen global stock indices post robust recovery … Continued

Intermediate

Key Forex technical levels in focus

Aussie holds support  (AUDUSD forecast) A negative on USD-CAD  (USDCAD forecast) A major “Bear Trap” lies below on the Euro-Dollar (EURUSD forecast)

Intermediate

Growth and inflation worries extend “risk off” moves

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing growth and inflation concerns have left global financial markets in “risk off” mode, and still vulnerable to further erratic, “risk off” moves. Growth concerns have been sparked by three main factors: ongoing supply chain worries fuelling inflation fears Inflation worries putting the spotlight on Central Banks and in particular the Fed … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar shows broad strength

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast)  Euro breaks down, but futures has a major support nearby  (EURUSD forecast)  Aussie drifts down  (AUDUSD forecast)  Dollar-CAD breaks up  (USDCAD forecast) 

Intermediate

Delta variant and supply chain concerns spark “risk off” moves

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The ongoing global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant and the concerns regarding the new Mu variant, have impacted on growth expectations. In addition, ongoing supply chain worries have continued to fuel inflation fears and accentuate growth concerns. These factors leave global financial markets vulnerable to erratic, “risk off” moves. On Thursday … Continued

Intermediate

Equities stay strong, despite disappointing US Employment report

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the August US Employment report on Friday, which was disappointing, the headline Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data missed expectations, posting at 235K, with 750K expected. Prior monthly gains were revised higher though, whilst the Unemployment Rate fell to a pandemic-era low at 5.2%. Global Purchasing Managers … Continued

Intermediate

Jackson Hole has muted impact as stocks grind higher

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, but it ended up as a non-event, as Fed Chair Powell did not signal anything different than previously communicated with respect to removing policy accommodation. The chaos, unrest and terrorist activity in Afghanistan has had muted impact on global … Continued

Beginner

Fed taper talk sees stocks plunge and bounce, US Dollar gains

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event last week was the Fed Minutes which showed increasing talk of tapering Bond purchases later this year. The data even last week were the US Retail Sales numbers which fell 1.1% in July (though June data was revised higher). Chinese stocks remain under pressures with the ongoing regulatory clampdown … Continued

Beginner

European stock averages lead global indices higher

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event in a light data week was the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with the ex-Food & Energy number coming in at 0.3%, below consensus estimates. On the fiscal side, the US Senate passed the infrastructure spending bill, approximately USD 1 trillion with about USD 560 billion of new … Continued

Expert

Major Negative on US Dollar Index

Negative USD signal (DXY forecast) Positive on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Pound holds support (GBPUSD forecast) So does Euro-Pound (EURGBP forecast)

Beginner

Global stocks rally on strong US Employment report

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event in the week was Friday’s strong US Employment report, with 943K jobs added in June, notably above consensus estimates. Thursday saw the Bank of England Meeting and a slightly more hawkish tone stating that “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary”. … Continued

Beginner

Chinese stocks plunge, a “dovish” Fed and an Amazon sell off, but still a “risk on” mode

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A regulatory crackdown by Chinese authorities on large internet stocks saw Chinese share indices plunge and also saw some delayed and limited contagion effect on global stock averages. We got the Fed decision on Wednesday last week, with a slightly more hawkish tone in the statement, but a slightly more dovish tone … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar posts positive signals

Positive on the US Dollar (DXY forecast) Negative on Pound  (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie threatens to break down  (AUDUSD forecast)

Beginner

Euro needs to confirm negative pattern

Euro negative threat (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar Index close to key resistance (DXY forecast) Pound breaks lower (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie posts negative with no support (AUDUSD forecast) US Dollar-CAD breaks up (USDCAD forecast)

Beginner

Delta variant spread and Fed fears sees “risk off” market reactions

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial markets reacted to ongoing fears of more hawkish monetary policy in the US, alongside concerns around the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant globally. As we will look at below, this is sent global bond markets higher (to lower yields, led by the US), whilst world stock averages sold off … Continued

Intermediate

Positive Euro Signals

Euro posts major positives against the US Dollar and on the cross rates (EURUSD, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURGBP forecast) Positive on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie and Kiwi hold major support (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) US Dollar-CAD posts fresh negative (USDCAD forecast)

Beginner

Share averages stay strong through US Employment report

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for June mostly beat expectations on Thursday 1st July, both from Markit for many major economies and from the US Institute of Supply Managers (ISM), with the Manufacturing PMI coming in at 60.6%, beating consensus for a 13th straight month above 50.0%. The US Employment report … Continued

Intermediate

Risk of a negative US Dollar correction

Dollar Index posts negative (DXY forecast) Euro positive after holding key support  (EURUSD forecast) Pound posts positive at support (GBPUSD forecast) Kiwi holds major weekly and monthly support (NZDUSD forecast)

Intermediate

Oil Boom

Crude oil has recovered all the lost ground of 2020 The  global market is in deficit OPEC+ is ready to increase supply whilst shattering the current price structure Look for the market to test the localised high of October 2018 “…Give me one more oil boom before I die …..Give me one more chance to say … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks shrug off hawkish Fed, pushing higher into late Q2

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Last week, global financial markets were still digesting the big event of the prior week with the US Federal Reserve signalling a more hawkish tone than the financial markets had anticipated. Fed officials this past week have sought to calm markets and allay fears that they were about to start to tighten … Continued

Expert

US Dollar holds key support

US Dollar support focus (DXY forecast) Pound send positive signal, but resistance above (GBPUSD forecast) Positives also on Aussie and Kiwi, but still see resistances (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) Negatives on US Dollar-CAD signals end of uptrend (USDCAD forecast)

Intermediate

More hawkish than anticipated Fed dominates markets

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The big event of the past week was US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision and statement on Wednesday. The FOMC dot plot chart at least two quarter-point rate increases in 2023. This was a more hawkish tone than the US and global financial markets had anticipated, causing significant price … Continued

Expert

US Dollar surges after a more hawkish Fed

Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Pound support disappears (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie breaks down and Kiwi closes below major support  (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) US Dollar-CAD breaks up  (USDCAD forecast)

Beginner

Stocks and Bonds rally, despite inflationary signals

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US CPI data was higher than expectations, with the headline data posting at 5% year-on-year for May, at its fastest pace since August 2008, with the core rate at 3.8%, its highest for nearly three decades. But Bond markets and stock indices shrugged off this data, with moves to lower yields and … Continued

Intermediate

Caterpillar: Bug or Butterfly?

Caterpillar has endured a torrid week The  long-standing impulsive channel is under threat The company is looking to pay a larger dividend Look for the market to start buying this stock as the week wears on Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) ended the week in poor form as it closed down by 5.03, or 2.23% to print … Continued

Intermediate

Stock averages rally on US Employment report

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another quiet week in financial markets up until Friday, despite a busy data calendar. Markets kicked into life after Friday’s US Employment report, which saw 559K jobs added in May, which was slightly worse than expectations. Over the weekend, the G7 agreed a global minimum corporate tax of 15%. Global financial market … Continued

Intermediate

Dollar holds key support

Dollar Index holds key weekly support Key support rises on the Euro Negative appears on Dollar Yen Negative also seen on Pound. Tug of war in Dollar-CAD, awaiting the breakout.

Intermediate

Hold Me In Your Lap Of Luxury

The deal for LVMH to fully acquire Tiffany was completed in January The market for luxury goods was under pressure throughout 2020 The sentiment over sales performance in 2021 is much improved LVMH SE has enjoyed a good run; there is more to come Looking back to January, the decision by LVMH SE, the world’s … Continued

Intermediate

European averages take the lead as indices probe higher

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A quiet week in financial markets with muted central bank activity and a relatively light data calendar. The standout on Wednesday was a more hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). This helped the New Zealand Dollar post firm gains across the Forex board. Cryptocurrencies remained volatile, with Bitcoin … Continued

Expert

US Dollar Holds Key Final Support

Positives appear on US Dollar-Yen (USDJPY forecast) Negative signalled on Aussie  (AUDUSD forecast) Dollar-CAD posts extremely rare positives!  (USDCAD forecast)

Intermediate

Stock and forex markets hesitant

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Inflation concerns remain, after the recent spike in US CPI data. The Fed Minutes on Wednesday highlighted an improving US economy but still far from the Fed’s goals, this did not have a significant impact on global financial markets. Tensions in Gaza have eased with an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced. The Indian COVID … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar testing (but holding) critical support

Dollar Index repeatedly holds final critical support (DXY forecast)  Negative on Dollar-Yen (USDJPY forecast)  And on Kiwi (NZDUSD forecast)  These need to be confirmed by a breakdown through support

Intermediate

Plug In My Cable

The top question right now is “What is the outlook for inflation?” The expectation is for higher prices in both the U.S. and U.K. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI data for May, out this week looks set to turn lower Look for the proof of higher lows on Monday as a reason to plug into cable … Continued

Intermediate

Inflation spooks Big Tech, but stocks rebound from weakness

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The US Consumer Price Index released on Wednesday came in at 4.2% from a year ago and 0.8% from March, significantly higher than expected. This data heightened US and wider inflation concerns, which had already spooked Big Tech stocks through mid-May, pulling broader equity indices lower. Tensions in Israel have had little … Continued

Expert

US Dollar failed bull signals

Dollar Index fails to confirm bullish signal and then breaks down Euro holds support and breaks up Positives on Aussie and Kiwi US Dollar-CAD accelerates lower

Intermediate

Trading The Copperline

Copper has been moving higher since November 1 The research whilst mixed, has a bullish bias The need for infrastructure rebuilding and electrification of the auto space bodes well Look for prices to test U.S. Dollars 3.62/lb “…        Even the old folks never knew Why they call it like they do I was wondering … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks cautious, despite strong results from Big Tech – USD gains

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US President Biden announced his $1.8 trillion American Families Plan (human infrastructure) to complement the $2 trillion infrastructure plan announced at the end of March. Earnings season has continued with more positives, with Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook and Tesla all beating estimates (though the price action on these stocks has not been … Continued

Intermediate

SMACK THE SPAC

SPAC issuance value almost matched IPO’s Listing process needs sensible and firm regulation Investors must evaluate each prospectus fully Collateralized SPAC funds of funds could arise What Is a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)? A special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) is a company with no commercial operations that is formed specifically to raise capital through … Continued