Current Market Analysis

The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis.

But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:

  • If to buy or sell an asset
  • At which levels to enter a trade
  • At which level to put the target to hopefully take profit on the trade
  • Or, if the analysis proves incorrect, when and where is the trade wrong and at which level to exit the trade.

In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.


Intermediate

MacroWatch – “Risk on” theme extends

After the tensions that began 2020 between Iran and the US with the Middle Eastern airstrikes, a quick and significant de-escalation has seen markets focus back on global economic conditions. The signing of the US-China phase one trade deal on Wednesday had little market impact as we had suggested in last week’s MacroWatch, though markets … Continued

Intermediate

Market Turning Points – January 17 2020

Market Review Point & Figure Overview of SPX Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course.  A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target to as high as 4080.  P&F does not predict time, only price. (no change) … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar (USD) resilience

A quiet week sees Dollar Yen (USDJPY) extends gains Minor negatives on the Aussie (AUDUSD) and Kiwi (NZDUSD) represent partial profit taking points

Intermediate

European Stock Indices Poised to Advance (EURO STOXX 50 and DAX)

The “risk on” theme continues with global stocks staying strong over the past 24 hours since the signing of US-China trade deal. The US stock averages have soared to new all-time higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) above the 29000 level and the broad benchmark index, the S&P 500 through 3300. The Q1 … Continued

Intermediate

“Risk on” theme points the Japanese Yen lower (USDJPY forecast)

The Japanese Yen remain under negative pressures with global financial markets continuing their “risk on” theme into the start of 2020. This has seen USDJPY strength over the past week since the de-escalation of tension in the Middle East and leaves the USDJPY forecast for further gains (see the technicals below). The “risk on” theme … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays vulnerable to losses – GBPUSD forecast

The Pound Sterling has been under downside pressures over the past week and in fact since the start of 2020. This has been driven by three factors with respect to the GBPUSD Forex rate: A more dovish tone from at least three members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, including outgoing … Continued

Intermediate

Crude Oil Is Bearish Near-term – Elliott wave analysis

Crude oil can be unfolding a big triangle correction in wave B, with price now specifically unfolding sub-wave D. Once all five legs: A-B-C-D and E fully develop, that is when a new impulse lower as wave C may follow. Crude oil, daily #1 On count #2 we are observing a three-wave A-B-C move in … Continued

Intermediate

Playing Taps For The Middle Class

It is not at all a mystery as to the cause of the wealth gap that exists between the very rich and the poor. Central bankers are the primary cause of this chasm that is eroding the foundation of the global middle class. The world’s poor are falling deeper into penury and at a faster … Continued

Intermediate

Risk on theme resumes – S&P 500 Forecast

A surge higher by US and global equity averages to start this week, with the US board benchmark index future, the S&P 500 E-Mini hitting another new record level on Monday and in overnight trading. This has reflected a rejection by markets of fears and negative pressures from an escalation of the conflict that began … Continued

Intermediate

Media’s Mega Rise in 2020

Media anticipates a great spending year in 2020 Political spending in the U.S. will rise 59% There are risks for static corporates and agencies from digital growth The perennial weak spot will be advertising in newspapers The advertising, communications and media sectors endured a torrid time during 2017 and 2018. This was not to be … Continued

Intermediate

Market Turning Points – January 12 2020

Point & Figure Overview of SPX Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course.  A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target to as high as 4080.  P&F does not predict time, only price. (no change) Intermediate trend: … Continued

Intermediate

Early 2020 volatility gives way to “risk on”

As we highlighted in last week’s MacroWatch, the bullish sentiment that started 2020 was significantly damaged by the increase in geopolitical risks from the U.S. airstrike that killed General Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian Quds Force chief. Moreover, global stock averages plunged lower in the middle of last week as Iran retaliated with airstrikes aimed at … Continued

Intermediate

Bitcoin: The 3rd halving is coming

Crypto currency has a reputation for ‘get rich quick’ and, therefore, attracts many new traders. Since its inception, Bitcoin became one of the biggest bubbles in recent market history that burst during December 2017 after hitting the astonishing $20,000 mark. After continuously losing ground all the way down to $3000 level, we are looking at … Continued

Intermediate

Euro under downside pressures (EURUSD forecast = negative)

A further selloff for the Euro over the past 24 hours, leaving risks lower. Global financial markets have seen aggressive volatility so far in 2020 given Middle Eastern tensions, with Gold and Oil markets swinging aggressively, as well as stock averages seeing notable selloffs and recoveries. On the currency side, FX markets have seen a … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD forecast remains to the downside

Global financial markets have seen some aggressive swings to tart 2020 with the tension in the Middle East, particular on the individual stock and equity index, alongside the Gold and Oil markets. On the Forex side, however, despite a choppy tone to USDJPY and Japanese Yen cross rates (due to the aforementioned tensions and the … Continued

Intermediate

Stock averages plunge after Middle Eastern tensions increase

Global financial markets have seen riskier assets plunge and safe havens rally in very volatile activity overnight Tuesday-Wednesday amid an escalation in the tensions in the Middle East. Iran have attempted to strike at US targets in Iraq to intensify the negative, “risk off” theme that started 2020 after the US airstrikes in the Middle … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY retains negative tone, amid risk off threats

Global financial markets have attempted to shrug off the more negative, “risk off” theme that started 2020 after the Middle East airstrike by the US last week. This initially saw a significant selloff in riskier assets and a rush into safe havens, like the Japanese Yen, sending USDJPY lower. Despite a rebound in riskier assets … Continued

Intermediate

Potential Platinum bull market in 2020

With a bullish start to 2020 for many commodity markets due to the escalation in tensions between Iran and USA, we see potential for the start of the new bull market in platinum. Looking at the chart from a purely technical perspective, a confirmed trend line on the weekly chart has broken, with a solid … Continued

Intermediate

A volatile start to 2020 – MacroWatch

A truncated trading week to end 2019 and start 2020 last week, with global markets observing holidays during the turn of year. 2019 ended and 2020 initially started by echoing the “risk on” tone from the whole of last year with global stock averages extending the December, Santa rally through the end of year, albeit … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY analysis: Fear of war

After the airstrike on Iran from USA sanctioned by President Trump, the week turned into quite a roller coaster. The threat of war with Iran has created a fearful first week in the market, as safe havens surged with Gold and Silver gaining around 2.4% and 2.7% respectively since the start of 2020, with investors … Continued

Intermediate

Market Turning Points – January 6, 2020

Market Review Point & Figure Overview of SPX Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course.  A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target to as high as 4080.  P&F does not predict time, only price. (no change) … Continued

Intermediate

Point & Figure Overview of SPX

SPX-IWM weekly charts  Another weekly high for both indexes and another all-time high for SPX which reached the 3240 P&F projection.  It now has a fair chance of ushering in an intermediate high which, based on cycles, could give us a price correction into July 2020, but a valid top will have to be confirmed … Continued

Beginner

Market Chartist Coming Soon to FxExplained

Hi there traders, We have an exciting announcement, Market Chartist is coming soon to FxExplained. For all you individual professional traders you will now have the opportunity to share in the analysis used by investment funds and hedge funds, investment banks and institutional brokers, alongside high net worth individual traders. Can you afford not to … Continued

Point & Figure Overview of SPX

Long-term trend: The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course. A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target to as high as 4080. P&F does not predict time, only price. Intermediate trend: The ~3180 projection was pretty much ignored by the index which, … Continued

Intermediate

Farewell Paul Volcker Hello Monetary Madness

God bless Paul Volcker. He was truly a one of a kind central banker and we probably won’t see another one like him ever again. It took his extreme bravery to crush the inflation caused by the monetary recklessness of Arthur Burns and the fiscal profligacy of Presidents Johnson & Nixon. Raising interest rates to … Continued

Intermediate

FTSE 100 forecast stays higher into Bank of England Meeting

The FTSE 100 Index chart has soared since late last week, benefiting from the certainty that has come from the UK general election result, with the 80-seat majority for the Conservative government. In addition, the latest surge higher in the FTSE 100 index this week has been assisted by the Pound recoiling from above 1.35 … Continued

Intermediate

Pound slides as Brexit concerns quickly resume – GBPUSD forecast

A selloff for the Pound over the past 24-48 hours has accelerated through Tuesday with concerns quickly resurfacing regarding Brexit. The euphoric Sterling rally since last week’s strong general election result for the Conservative party and a large government majority has been erased with worries that a no deal Brexit is still a threat. The … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY and USDMXN Update – Elliott wave analysis

Good morning traders, and welcome to the intra-day morning updates. Let us start with USDJPY where we see a completed four-wave move to the upside, and latest intra-day rally from the 109.21 level as final move higher as wave 5). We can see that wave 4) had faced nice support right at the former wave … Continued

Intermediate

FTSE 100 surge leads European stock averages higher

A positive follow through for the UK benchmark averages on Monday, as the FTSE 100 led the European equity indices higher (see the UK FTSE 100 Index Chart, the German DAX Index chart and the Euro STOXX 50 Index chart and commentary) This has reflected a positive follow-through for the UK market after last week’s … Continued

Intermediate

Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why

Super low yields The global fixed income market has reached such a manic state that junk bond yields now trade at a much lower rate than where investment-grade debt once stood. Investment-grade corporate debt yields were close to 6% prior to the Great Recession. However, Twitter just issued $700 million of eight-year bonds at a … Continued

Intermediate

Trade talks and UK election result affirm “risk on” theme

Markets began last week on a positive footing after the strong US Employment report the prior Friday (6th), as we highlighted in our Macro Watch report last week, with the November Non-Farm Payroll data particularly strong at 266K jobs added (expectations of 187K) and the Unemployment rate at 3.5%, matching the lowest jobless rate since … Continued

Intermediate

Market Turning Points – Market Review

Point & Figure Overview of SPX Correctly predicting the market trend requires an objective analysis of the supply and demand forces which are constantly in play.  In my opinion, the methodology of P&F is one of the best ways to demonstrate graphically this perennial struggle. Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows … Continued

Intermediate

Of Course; Boris Will Take Cable Higher

Boris Johnson has won an incredible election victory The U.K. will leave the EU on January 31st, 2019 The market was euphoric as the risk of Corbyn was dispatched GBPUSD pair will dip first thing, but then start building new strength Throughout the 2019 U.K. general election the Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson held … Continued

Intermediate

Pound is in breakout mode (GBP)

The UK election is over, the Pound is in breakout mode against a variety of currencies (GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPCHF, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPCAD). US Dollar in bigger range highlighted by the US Dollar Index (DXY)

Intermediate

GBPUSD bull theme reinforce after general election

An emphatic majority for the Conservative party was predicted by the exit polls at 10.00 p.m. on Thursday 12th December, which has been confirmed as the results have come in. This saw the Pound leap against the US Dollar above 1.35, with GBPUSD at its highest level since May 2018 and EURGBP plunging to levels … Continued

Intermediate

UBER could be the stock of 2020

After a bad IPO and falling stock price, we might finally be seeing a bottom at the end of the year. Overall, UBER had a very disappointing year, not to mention license problems in London and cases of sexual assaults. As 2020 starts big investors will be looking to invest in cheaper stocks and hold … Continued

Intermediate

Gold & Silver Spot

Gold trading in a bull flag formation but while holding within the mid point of this flag, as we are now, this offers little trading opportunities. We are making a break above resistance at 1472/74. Silver longs at important support at 1655/50 are working perfectly on the recovery to strong resistance at 1693/96. We topped … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD focus into a key general election

The focus Wednesday was on the Federal Reserve in their last FOMC Meeting of 2019. There was no change in interest rates as anticipated, through the Fed maintained their dovish stance, indicating that rates would likely remain on hold through 2020. Stock averages in the US and globally cheered this outcome, probing slightly higher. However, … Continued

Intermediate

Cannabis industry: Gearing up for 2020

The cannabis industry has exploded, since Canada legalized the formerly illegal drug, now with some big US states legalizing it. Thugs has sent a wave across the world and sparked a debate for more countries to legalize cannabis. This is a massive market worth billions of US Dollars every year. The chart in the technical … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD Election day approaches and final FOMC of 2019!

Looking at GBPUSD, the pair is waiting for the results of the election. While GBP surged on polls showing Tories dominance, they need 320 seats for a majority. YouGov’s latest findings suggest the Tories winning 339 seats, Labour 231 and Lib-Dems 15. The seat-by-seat system gets Tories 43% of the vote and Labour 34%. The … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY – EURJPY Forecasts

USDJPY holding below 108.70/80 is a sell signal.EURJPY up for a day or 2 then down for a day or 2 in a sideways trend. Today’s Analysis 11 Dec, 2019 USDJPY try shorts at 108.70/80 with stops above 109.00. A break higher targets 109.30/35 & 109.55/60. Try shorts at 109.65/80 with stops above 109.99. Shorts … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD Forecast: Positive tone ahead of the Fed and ECB

The focus today is on the Federal Reserve in their last FOMC Meeting of 2019. No change in interest rates in anticipated but given the better than expected US Employment data last week, the risk is for the Fed to begin to shift away from a more dovish stance to slightly more hawkish. Such a … Continued

Intermediate

Lagarde: The challenges ahead

What is the European Central Bank facing? Becoming the European Central Bank head might sound like the highest-level of any career achievement. The job requires responsibility for setting the Eurozone interest rate policy, controlling the Euros supply and overseeing the biggest European banks, all of that keeping an eye on inflation and unemployment (11 million … Continued

Intermediate

Dax, EuroStoxx and FTSE 100 forecasts

Dax Dax 30 December futures Dax topped exactly at 13180/13200 (sorry typo yesterday) but it is unlikely you had a chance to short before the sell off to 13110/090. Outlook is quite negative for today. 10 Dec, 2019 Dax it is worth trying shorts at 13180/13200 with stops above 13220. A break higher is a … Continued