Current Market Analysis

The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis.

But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:

  • If to buy or sell an asset
  • At which levels to enter a trade
  • At which level to put the target to hopefully take profit on the trade
  • Or, if the analysis proves incorrect, when and where is the trade wrong and at which level to exit the trade.

In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.


Intermediate

Pound aims higher – GBPUSD forecast

Global financial markets have shifted to more of a “risk on” theme since the start of this week, rejecting the “risk off” phase seen at the beginning of April, last week. This has been in reaction to coronavirus new cases/ deaths showing some signs of slowing down in some parts of Europe (Italy and Germany) … Continued

Intermediate

Global stock outlook improves (S&P 500 forecast)

Stock indices have posted strong gains to start this week, rallying to new recovery high as coronavirus new cases/ deaths have shown some signs of slowing down in some US States (NY State) and in some parts of Europe (Italy and Germany). This has rejected the “risk off” theme from the start of April last … Continued

Intermediate

Markets calming, consolidation themes

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Relatively speaking, compared to the chaotic developments throughout March, the end of the month and move into the second quarter and April, has seen a lack of significant developments on the geopolitical side. Yes, the COVID-19 coronavirus continues to spread globally, with the current epicentre shifting to the US, but still with … Continued

Intermediate

Tough To See A Reason To Buy Natural Gas

Natural Gas demand has fallen heavily as result of COVID-19 Markets initially tried to rally during the week but there were no buyers in the ring Even if home heating demand rises there will be no lasting upside The right trade is to short any early Monday bounce The level of global demand for natural … Continued

Intermediate

Approaching Short-term Low – Market Turning Points

Point & Figure overview of SPX Long term trend:  Only intermediate targets reliable at this time. Intermediate trend:  Maximum 2170-2030 this phase into mid-year after relief rally. Important  cycles followed I follow only a few cycles that I consider reliable in my analysis.  This is complemented by the analysis of Erik Hadik (www.insiidetrack.com). The 80-d … Continued

Intermediate

Stock indices stay vulnerable to further losses (FTSE forecast)

Global financial markets have shifted back to more of a “risk off” phase since the start of Q2 into April, with stock averages lower (see our recent reports on the DAX and S&P500 Share indices did manage modest rebounds Thursday, after a more promising outlook was seen for the Oil price, with the Oil and … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY aiming back lower (USDJPY forecast)

Global financial markets have shifted back to more of a “risk off” phase since the start of Q2 into April, with stock averages lower (see our recent reports on the DAX and S&P500 ). In turn, this “risk off” phase has seen broader US Dollar strength resuming, except against the Yen, with the safe haven … Continued

Intermediate

DAX Triple Top keeps threat to the downside

Day trade outlook: A significant selloff on Wednesday through key supports at 9422 and 9411.5, to confirm a Triple Top pattern, to reinforce Tuesday’s recovery failure from below the recent recovery peak at 10117 (down from 10073), to keep the bias lower for Thursday. We see a downside bias for 9300; a break below aims for 9188.5 and maybe 9068. … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD stays resilient

Day trade outlook: Resilient consolidation, risks stay higher Again, a resilient consolidation Wednesday (as also seen Tuesday) after the spike lower and rebound from 1.2242, retaining a positive tone from the latter March surge above key 1.2423 (to switch the intermediate-term bear trend to neutral), to keep the risk higher into Thursday.  We see an upside bias for 1.2444 then 1.2485; … Continued

Intermediate

Stock averages recoveries fading (S&P 500 forecast)

Global share indices tried to advance further on Tuesday into the end of quarter (end of the Japanese fiscal year) but have been unable to resume the bullish themes seen through latter March, last week. The subsequent hesitant setback over the past 24 hours may have reflected recovery fatigue, but also potentially a conclusion to … Continued

Intermediate

Q1 – CHART PACK: A Shock Start!

In this special report, we review some of the major moves across global assets (excluding G-10 FX – Stay tuned for an exclusive FX Chart Pack for Q2) that have shocked the entire mkt in Q1 2020. We will go through interesting Global Equity Benchmarks, Emerging Markets, Commodities and Bonds. COVID-19 – The Catalyst It … Continued

Intermediate

Euro recovery theme intact, despite dip

A Euro dip versus the US Dollar to start the week, after EURUSD surged back higher last week. EURUSD has recouped much of the loss sustained through mid-March, during the panic buying of US Dollars. Despite this week’s early dip, we see this as corrective for now and see an upside theme resuming today, aiming … Continued

Intermediate

“V” Shaped Recovery Will Need Viagra

My clients have known for a long time that the nucleus of the next crisis will be in the overleveraged corporate bond market. This notion was confirmed recently in an article from the WSJ: companies that borrow in the junk loan market are now in a far weaker condition financially than they were prior to … Continued

Intermediate

Corrective moves for stocks and the US Dollar

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The COVID-19 coronavirus continues to spread globally, with the current epicentre still in Europe, but quickly shifting to the US. The British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson and Heath Secretary Matt Hancock have both tested positive for coronavirus (though symptoms are understood to be mild). The surge in cases in New York and … Continued

Intermediate

Next Cycle Low ~4/7

The first countertrend rally took SPX to its 200-DMA  where it was repelled. IWM did not fare nearly as well and remains with considerable relative weakness to the SPX.  There may be some additional trading within the range established this week, with the next short-term low due ~4/8.  An intermediate low is not due until … Continued

Intermediate

DAX Projects 11300 TGT; STOXX 3375

As global central banks turn on the stimulus taps by slashing rates and restarting large QE programs, global equity benchmarks have recovered from their CV pandemic crash lows into mean-reversion. With fresh bullish targets projected on a Point & Figure model, we eye vital breakouts required in DAX and STOXX 50 Futures to widen tactical … Continued

Intermediate

Stock indices build on bases with firm recoveries (S&P 500 focus)

Global share indices advanced further Thursday, as we had flagged in our report on Tuesday with the US Senate passing the $2 trillion economic relief bill, which moves to the House on Friday. Stock averages have pushed up through numerous resistance barriers, to build on bases and confirm short-term recovery themes. We still do NOT … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD recovery with negative US Dollar correction

The surging US Dollar strength through mid-March has continued to reverse this week and over the past 24 hours. This has reflected an easing of global funding and credit concerns, as global central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve in the US, have acted to provide global liquidity for US Dollars. The corrective weakening of the … Continued

Intermediate

Stock averages form bases, aim higher (FTSE 100 focus)

Global share indices rebounded further Tuesday, with the US Congress apparently in agreement on the $2 trillion economic relief bill Global stock averages have overcome through resistance levels, to form bases and signal a more positive outlook in the very short-term. This does NOT end the bigger bear market theme, but the threat has switched … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD bounce as US Dollar strength recedes

The aggressive US Dollar strength of the past 1-2 weeks has begun to recede this week. This has been as equity averages have stabilised globally and begun to rebound, alongside commodity prices, whilst credit concerns have been eased by global central bank actions. This has seen a more negative, correction, a weakening of the US … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks bounce but still heavy, with US economic relief bill stalling – S&P 500 forecast

Global stocks averages have rebounded overnight into Tuesday, despite the US Senate stalling on the $2 trillion economic relief bill Asian and European stocks have advanced through resistance levels, BUT are far from bullish US equity futures, however, remain under negative pressures having gapped lower to new bear cycle lows on Here we focus on … Continued

Intermediate

Debt be Damned

The U.S. National Debt is about to surge like never before, along with the rest of the entire planet’s gigantic pile of sovereign IOUs. America started with a $23.5 trillion debt before the Wuhan virus outbreak, with annual deficits running over a $1 trillion; and projected to be at least that amount for the next … Continued

Intermediate

USD index In A Bullish Run – Elliott wave analysis

Hello traders, todays article is about USD Index and its daily time frame. On the daily chart of USD Index we see price trading within a higher degree wave C) up from 94.68 level, as part of a bigger, A-B-C move. We know that wave C) is also an impulse, therefore a five-wave recovery can … Continued

Beginner

Why is Gold selling off?

Gold as a safe haven Gold is usually seen as the ultimate safe haven, an obvious beneficiary during a flight to quality, when the global economic or geopolitical outlook is seen as particularly negative. Examples of a gold price surge during a flight to quality would be during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) 2008-2009 and … Continued

Beginner

Why is the US Dollar so strong?

Initial US Dollar weakness into early March The US Dollar weakened in late February-early March at the early stages of the coronavirus COVID-19 spread through Asia and into Europe. This was due to the fact that the Federal Reserve was seen as one of the few major, Central Banks that had a significant number of … Continued

US Dollar surges in flight to quality; GBPUSD hits multi-decade low

The COVID-19 coronavirus continues to spread, with a global surge in cases and the inevitable fatalities. The still more aggressive spread of the virus in the UK, across European nations and also throughout the USA has seen multiple countries go into some form of lockdown, with restrictions on public movement and work from home rules … Continued

Expert

US Dollar bullish breaks

Dollar breaks up and forms short term exhaustion pattern (DXY) Similar exhaustion shows on the Pound along with the Aussie (GBPUSD and AUDUSD) Euro-Pound signals a fresh exhaustion and powerful reversal pattern (EURGBP)

Intermediate

Online Home Working There Is Room To Zoom

The move to working at home is in full cry It will not be long before a full lockdown is in force across all major economies The wheels of business and education have to keep turning amid coronavirus fears The stay at home stock of Zoom, still has room to well….ZOOM PLEASE NOTE…TRYING TO CALL … Continued

Intermediate

Minor Cycle Bounce – Market Turning Points

Point & Figure overview of SPX Long term trend:  Although I do have a potential lower target in mind, I will wait for some confirmation before disclosing it. Intermediate trend:  Maximum 2170 this phase.  Larger drop into mid-year after relief rally. Important  cycles followed I follow only a few cycles that I consider reliable in … Continued

Intermediate

Not going down is the new going up! – FTSE 100 forecast

Global stock averages have stabilised over the past 1-2 days, and despite probes to new bear cycle lows, markets have NOT displayed the bearish, capitulation-type activity seen previously through March. This “not going down” could be viewed as “the new going up”, though we are far from indicating that any sustainable bottoms are in place. … Continued

Intermediate

Pound in freefall, as US Dollar surges, GBPUSD lowest since 1985!

A thirst for the US currency given a funding and liquidity panic, plus as a safe haven flight to quality has seen the US dollar surge across all major currencies, even seeing the USD rallying against the usual go to safe haven, the Japanese Yen. In addition, partially due to the acceleration of the COVID-19 … Continued

Intermediate

Euro now plunges, whilst US Dollar stays strong – EURUSD Forecast

An aggressive selloff by EURUSD over the past 24 hours, primarily reflecting US Dollar strength, with a thirst for the US currency given a funding and liquidity panic, plus as a safe haven in these times of crisis. The global US Dollar shortage has seen the US currency rallying against the usual, go to safe … Continued

Intermediate

Global stock rebound falters – S&P 500 forecast

Global stock indices tried to rebound on Tuesday amid various countermeasures to stabilise the global financial markets by global Central Banks and governments. However, this rebound has quickly stalled with moves back lower and share averages back close to the recent bear market lows. This leaves the threat lower into today and this week, though … Continued

Intermediate

Capitulation pressures intensify

The more aggressive spread of the coronavirus into other European countries outside of Italy, after the lockdown last weekend of 15 Italian provinces was extended to the whole of the country, was underscored by the World Health Organisation (WHO) now categorising COVID-19 as a pandemic. Spain is now on lockdown too, with many European nations … Continued

Intermediate

Has a Countertrend Rally Started?

Point & Figure overview of SPX Long term trend:  Although I do have a potential lower target, I do not want to disclose it at this time. Intermediate trend:  Maximum 2360 projection was filled on Friday in the futures (2380).  Initial countertrend to 2800. Important (known) cycles I follow only a few reliable cycles in … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar reverses

Major bull reversal in US Dollar reaches upside target (DXY) Powerful downside reversal in Euro (EURUSD) Pound breaks down and targets final support (GBPUSD) Reversal in Canadian Dollar signals trend possibly ending (USDCAD)

Intermediate

Do Not Ban Short Selling

Markets are in turmoil after Trump’s travel ban Coronavirus pandemic spreads recession fear Short selling blamed for accelerating the collapse Markets will, in time recover much of the losses I am starting to write this note at 14:20 GMT on Thursday, March 12, 2020. Once again all I see in the equity markets is a … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks plunge again to multi-year lows! (DAX forecast)

An extremely aggressive selloff by global stock averages Wednesday and overnight into Thursday reacting to ban on travel from Europe by the Trump administration. The major global share indices plunged lower to multi-year lows, through the troughs from Monday, to reinforce the bear moves seen from the gaps lower on Sunday night/ Monday morning. Here … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD pointing lower ahead of the UK Budget

A significant selloff in the past 24 hours for the British Pound Sterling versus the US Dollar, with GBPUSD wiping out much of the upside progress of the past week. This has primarily been due to a resumption of some modest, broad US Dollar strength, on hopes of a fiscal stimulus package from the US, … Continued

Intermediate

Fed’s Real Mandate: Ever Expanding Asset Bubbles

Wall Street hit a new all-time high on February 20th. It was supposed to be smooth sailing from there, riding along the global liquidity wave. But then, that wave crashed into what turned out to be the fastest correction from a new high in the history of the US stock market. Even though the fall … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks plunge, remain vulnerable despite bounces

An extremely aggressive selloff by global stock averages to start the week, reacting to the lockdown in Italy, the state of emergency on New York and the oil price war. This saw the major global share indices gap lower on Sunday night/ Monday morning, with circuit breakers kicking in on the S&P 00 future and … Continued

Intermediate

Recovery efforts fading and further capitulation threats

The more aggressive, global spread of the coronavirus outside of China in early March has further increased concerns regarding a pandemic, notably with the spread of the virus in Europe and the US. The more aggressive spread in Italy, and the lockdown this weekend of 15 provinces in the country has highlighted the potential risks … Continued

Expert

Dollar Extends losses

Dollar Index breaks weekly support (DXY) Dollar Yen targets major support (USDJPY) EuroPound hits high probability extreme (EURGBP)

Intermediate

Market Turning Points – Is The Bull Market Over?

Point & Figure overview of SPX Long term trend:  It’s time to consider the possibility that the coronavirus pandemic could bring an end to the bull market.  This would become even more likely if the current correction extended below the October 2018 bottom of 2346. Intermediate trend:  Intermediate target minimum:  2620 with potential to 2360. … Continued

Intermediate

Crude Oil Tumbles Amid No Agreement On Production Cuts

The Opec meeting wanted to cut production Russia, blocked such a move, claiming it can cope The market is falling as demand forecasts plummet on Coronavirus fears The price of WTI is in decline, it will break below $37 OPEC and non-OPEC allies (OPEC +) gathered in Vienna on March 5th and 6th looking to … Continued

Intermediate

Share averages slide, Europe leads, bear risks! (DAX forecast)

A more bearish tone for global equity indices over the past 24 hours after a more erratic theme this week, as markets now shift back towards the late February “risk off” fear phase. This has seen the rebound and basing attempts that began March starting to be dismantled. The risk is for the current bear … Continued