Current Market Analysis

The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis. But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:

  • If to buy or sell an asset
  • At which levels to enter a trade
  • At which level to put the target to hopefully take profit on the trade
  • Or, if the analysis proves incorrect, when and where is the trade wrong and at which level to exit the trade.

In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.


Intermediate

Stock averages erratic – basing efforts or bear market rallies?

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2022, from Sintra, Portugal saw the world’s major central bankers reaffirm their commitment to fighting inflation. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data was mixed last week, with some of the European data beating expectations, whilst the US PMI data from S&P Global just … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar Attacks Highs

The US Dollar Index Approaches Multi-Year Peak (DXY forecast) Aussie & Kiwi Dollars Break Down (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) Euro Vulnerable Too (EURUSD forecast) Pound Creates Major Support (GBPUSD forecast)

Intermediate

Stock averages base with glimmers of inflation peaking and slowdown signs

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Moderating inflation pressures and falling growth data helped global stock indices secures gains and technical bases last week. Global S&P Flash PMI on Thursday were not only lower than for May, but also below expectations in many instances, with the US services data hitting its lowest level since January. In addition, long … Continued

Intermediate

Central Bank activity leaves stocks vulnerable, but mixed signals elsewhere

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Central Banks were front and center last week, with the Swiss National Bank (SNB), US Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) all in play. First, the ECB held an ad hoc, emergency meeting on Wednesday to deal with surging bond yields for … Continued

Intermediate

ECB Pivots + Hot US CPI = Risk Off Acceleration

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) pivoted to a more hawkish stance on Thursday, signaling a rate hike in July and maybe more aggressive rate hikes than anticipated thereafter. In addition, they announced the end to their Quantative Easing (QE) program, the Asset Purchase Program (APP) Friday’s US CPI data showed … Continued

Intermediate

Stock averages consolidate bases, “risk on” theme intact

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The EU agreed on a partial ban on Russian oil. OPEC+ agreed on bigger oil-output hikes for July and August on Thursday, but still disappointed the oil market, which rebounded strongly, having previously sold off in anticipation of more aggressive hikes. EU inflation hit a new record high at 8.1%. Despite markets … Continued

Intermediate

Strong stock index rebounds for technical “bases”, “risk on”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Selling exhaustion in the equity markets saw recoveries last week, and a cross market shift to a “risk on” theme. This was helped by some positive forecasts from Macy’s, Ralph Lauren and Nordstrom. Fed Minutes pointed to hints of flexibility, helping the more positive outlook. Economic data was mixed, but the PCE … Continued

Intermediate

Recession fears sees S&P 500 threaten bear market

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Poor results from US retailers, notably Target, but also Walmart, Lowe’s and Home Depot, highlighted a weakened US consumer. This stoked fears of a larger slowdown and future recession. This on top of US and global inflation worries, and hawkish Central Banks stoked the stagflation fire. Fed speakers, including Chair Powell have … Continued

Intermediate

US inflation still running hot, BUT hints at stock averages basing

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US CPI headline data year over year rose 8.3%, falling from March’s pace but not as much as expected, with consensus around 8.1%. Jerome Powell again stated that a hike of 0.75% was not something being actively considered, but was still a possibility. Possible easing of pandemic lockdowns in Shanghai, China brought … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks stay bearish even after “less hawkish” Fed

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A 0.5% hike by the Fed as expected, but Jerome Powell stated that a hike of 0.75% was “not something we are actively considering.” Stock indices initially rallied strongly on this information Wednesday, then reversed these gains and more on Thursday and Friday. Friday’s US Jobs reports saw 428K jobs added in … Continued

Intermediate

Disappointing tech earnings leave stocks vulnerable, after erratic April end

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Disappointing earnings results from the tech sector last week, including Alphabet and Amazon, and concerning forward guidance from Apple eclipsed solid Meta numbers. The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index YOY data, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge posted its first deceleration in over a year, whilst the YOY headline … Continued

Intermediate

The US Dollar is King

Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) But US Dollar Index stops at a major upside resistance (DXY forecast) Kiwi breaks final support (NZDUSD forecast)

Intermediate

Hawkish Fed > higher yield pressures > stocks plunge again

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments More hawkish comments from various Fed policymakers, notably Bullard and Fed Chair Powell indicated even more aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022 and also in the near future, sending bond and stock markets lower in the US and globally. European Central Bank (ECB) hawks and doves have called for earlier and more … Continued

Intermediate

Higher yield pressure sees value stocks outperform growth counterparts

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US headline CPI data leapt by 1.2% in March, with the year-over-year rise at 8.5%, above consensus expectations to a four-decade high. More hawkish comments from Charles Evans of the Fed (historically a dove) regarding accelerated rate hikes echoed the comments the prior week from another dove, Lael Brainard. The European Central … Continued

Intermediate

Even more hawkish Fed sends bonds and stock averages lower

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Hawkish comments from Lael Brainard of the Fed (usually more of a dove) regarding rate hikes and balance sheet normalization saw Bonds yields surge last Tuesday, with growth/ tech stocks leading the US stock averages lower. This was affirmed by Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes, which reinforced a more hawkish threat from the … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar strength!

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast)  But Euro-Dollar does not break down (EURUSD forecast)  Blow off tops on Aussie and Kiwi  (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) 

Intermediate

Stock index rally extends, but slows

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have been less dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as a lack of any significant escalation has seen a further shift towards more of a “risk on” theme for stocks since mid-March. There have also been hopes from the Ukraine/ Russia talks and also from reported setbacks suffered … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks surge as Bonds plunge

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have been less dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as a lack of any significant escalation has seen a further shift towards more of a “risk on” theme for global risky assets (notably stocks) since mid-March. This has also been assisted by hopes from the Ukraine/ Russia talks … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY surges, Commodity currencies rally

US Dollar-Yen continue its march higher (USDJPY forecast)  Aussie approach major resistance  (AUDUSD forecast)  US Dollar-CAD continues its breakdown  (USDCAD forecast) 

Intermediate

“Risk on” theme emerging

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have once more been dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but with a shift towards more of a “risk on” theme through mid-March. This has been driven by hopes from minimally positive signals from the Ukraine/ Russia talks. And, although there have been some upsetting impacts on civilians, … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar supports under pressure

Reversal on US Dollar Index but key support held (DXY forecast)  Pound reaches breakout point (GBPUSD forecast)  US Dollar-Yen reaches major upside target (USDJPY forecast)  

Beginner

“Risk off” theme slightly eases despite Russia/ Ukraine conflict

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have again been dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with shifts between “risk on” and “risk off” themes. Further punitive sanctions including the US barring Russian oil imports has increased the threat to global trade and global economic growth. Global commodity prices have again risen aggressively, but also … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar strong within G3

Euro Future hits major downside target (EURUSD forecast)  Pound breaks down  (GBPUSD forecast)  US Dollar-Yen breaks up  (USDJPY forecast) 

Intermediate

“Risk off” theme as Russian invasion continues

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The financial markets have again been dominated by developments in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with shifts between “risk off” and “risk on” themes. More punitive sanctions have seen European and U.K. stocks under particular pressure given the likely impact on global trade and the global economy. Global commodity prices have risen … Continued

Intermediate

Russian invasion of Ukraine sees “risk off” then “risk on”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The markets were dominated last week with shifts between “risk off” then “risk on” themes with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The “risk off” theme on the initial invasion quickly shifted to “risk on”, as is often seen when conflict is predicted by markets and then finally breaks out, “sell the rumour, … Continued

Intermediate

Intensifying Russia/ Ukraine fears reinforce “risk off” theme

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The markets were dominated last week with shifts between “risk on” then “risk off” themes with conflicting reports regarding the potential for conflict starting between Russia and Ukraine. Reports of Russian troops withdrawing saw a “risk on” move earlier in the week, which was dismissed by Western statements regarding a potentially imminent … Continued

Intermediate

Euro recovery tops out

Euro tops out at major resistance to the tick on Thursday (EURUSD forecast) Euro-Pound tops out at its monthly resistance (EURGBP forecast) Positive appears on US Dollar-CAD (USDCAD forecast) US DollarYen reaches upside target (USDJPY forecast)

Intermediate

Stocks rebound through volatile earnings and Central Bank hawkishness

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A more hawkish tone from global central banks with the Fed shifting more hawkish through January, on Thursday we saw the Bank of England and European Central Bank both signal a more hawkish tone. The Bank of England delivered a 25bp interest rate hike as anticipated, but the vote was close for … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar reverses lower, Euro surges

US Dollar Index posts major negative (DXY forecast) Euro signals major positive (EURUSD forecast) Uptrend over on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie posts fresh negative (AUDUSD forecast)

Intermediate

More hawkish Fed sees volatile stocks and a strong greenback

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments We got the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, statement and press conference on Wednesday and although markets moved initially to a “risk on” theme after the statement, the press conference saw a “risk off” shift, as, markets interpreted comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as opening the door … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar surges, still bullish!

US Dollar breaks up (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast) Aussie breaks final major support Kiwi accelerates lower

Intermediate

Inflation/ interest rate/ Ukraine fears trigger “risk off”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Increasing worries of global inflationary pressures and fears of even higher interest rates from the major Central Banks have seen a more aggressive shift to a “risk off” phase through mid-January. These concerns have been heightened by the threat of conflict as Russia continues to amass troops on the Ukrainian border. These … Continued

Intermediate

Positive US Dollar tone

A  quiet week sees Pound, Aussie and Kiwi retreat (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD forecasts)  The US Dollar Index reaches first upside target (DXY  forecast)  A major positive appears on EuroPound (EURGBP forecast)

Intermediate

Stocks trying to rebound, despite still more hawkish Fed

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing concerns of global inflationary pressures have seen an erratic start to the year for global markets, seen again last week. The US CPI data for December showed a 7% rise over a year, the highest inflation rate since 1982! Although this was priced in, it continues to fuel inflationary and higher … Continued

Intermediate

Mixed US Dollar Signals

US Dollar Index hits major support and posts positive (DXY forecast) Pound uptrend over (GBPUSD forecast) Negatives appear on Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) Dollar-CAD reverses (USDCAD forecast)

Intermediate

Higher yields and hawkish Fed send stocks lower

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments 2022 kicked off with a continuation of the latter 2021 theme of rising concerns of global inflationary pressures. This saw a rise in not just US bond yields, but in global bond yields, particularly in the major, economic centres. This higher yield theme was reinforced by the release of the Minutes from … Continued

Intermediate

Omicron and hawkish Central Bank fears send stocks lower

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the Omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have resurfaced over the past week. This has been driven by global medical institutions warnings of the more contagious aspect of Omicron the surging numbers of cases in many countries (for example the … Continued