Current Market Analysis

The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis.

But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:

  • If to buy or sell an asset
  • At which levels to enter a trade
  • At which level to put the target to hopefully take profit on the trade
  • Or, if the analysis proves incorrect, when and where is the trade wrong and at which level to exit the trade.

In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.


Intermediate

EUR/GBP: New 2.5 year lows; 0.8381-67 Next Key SUP Zone

EUR/GBP is on track for a big week as sellers breach the YTD low at 0.8469, continuing bearish developments since August and tapping prices last seen in May 2017. The pair is testing an important corrective fib level at 0.8435. This is the 38.2% fib of the 2015-2016 bull trend and may offer longer-term bulls … Continued

Intermediate

The Pound surges on poll: GBPUSD forecast higher after 1.30 break

A more positive poll favouring the Conservative party over the past 24 hours has seen a stall in the narrowing in the polls recently between the Conservative and Labour parties. The better performance by Labour had been a theme over the past week, but the halt and reveres of this trend in favour of the … Continued

Intermediate

US Stock Averages plunge (S&P 500 forecast)

Stock averages suffered a further slide on Tuesday as markets continued to react to the US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Brazil and Argentina, but also now have raised concerns that the US-China trade war could extend long into 2020. Comments from President Trump alongside U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross indicated that the … Continued

Intermediate

Priced for Perfection

The stock market has now priced in a perfect resolution for all of its erstwhile perils. Wall Street Shills would have you believe that since the Fed has turned dovish it will always be able to push stocks higher. The trade war is about to reach a peaceful conclusion and that will be enough to … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD forecast is positive with a weakened US Dollar

A broad “risk off” scenario hit global markets Monday as US President Trump put tariffs on Steel and Aluminum imports from Brazil and Argentina, heightening the global trade war. This sent stocks lower, and in this scenario had a negative impact on the US Dollar within G3, with the greenback losing ground to both the … Continued

Intermediate

A cautious Thanksgiving week ahead of a busy week

The US-China trade talks yielded some upside last week with reports of a positive phone call between China’s top trade negotiator Liu He and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury Secretary on Tuesday. This was followed by China announcing new guidelines and penalties for the protection of patents and copyrights, which … Continued

Intermediate

Rising Eurozone Inflation does not lift EUR/USD Prospects

Eurozone inflation picked up in November Broader economic picture does not indicate pricing pressure The market is showing a greater disposition to the Dollar The EURUSD pair cannot break out from a long running bear channel Despite signs of recovery in recent Eurozone data the Euro to U.S. Dollar (EURUSD) exchange rate ended the week … Continued

Intermediate

Cautious Forex through the Thanksgiving week

Very quiet conditions see minor negatives on the Dollar Index (DXY) Positives on the Euro (EURUSD) Markets tend to reverse or accelerate around holidays, so some action and bigger ranges should begin this week

Intermediate

Where Are We? – Market Turning Points

Market Overview Long-term trend:  The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course.  A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target of 3680+.  A few weeks ago, it was not clear if structurally, SPX would retest its 12/18 low of 2346 … Continued

Intermediate

The Forex Zone Forecasts – US Dollar King of G3 with Yen and Euro vulnerable

US Dollar stays strong amid a more positive spin from the US-China trade talks The Forex Zone looks at day trade views and forecasts for the major Forex rates; EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY. EURUSD: Still targeting key 1.0988, maybe critical 1.0939 A low-level consolidation Thursday after Wednesday’s prod lower to just hold above key … Continued

Intermediate

Pound rebounds on YouGov poll pointing to Tory majority (GBPUSD)

In the U.K. a YouGov poll using a method that successfully forecast the 2017 general election result was released late Wednesday. It has forecast a Conservative win, critically giving them a 68-seat majority. This helped the Pound rally in late trading Wednesday with GBPUSD pushing back up to 1.2950 Remember, however, markets are likely to … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY forecast higher, following stocks in “risk on” mode

A risk on theme again this week with further positive soundings from the US-China phase one trade deal, as Trump states a deal is close (again). This has pushed global equity markets still higher, with the US the stock market benchmark averages (the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq) all hitting new all-time … Continued

Intermediate

US equity futures at new record highs: S&P 500 forecast higher

A shift back to a risk on theme over the past 24-36 hours after last week’s shift to a risk off bias (after cautious and mixed signals from the US-China trade talks). This week has seen positive rumours and more upbeat soundings, with a report overnight stating that the top-level negotiators had been on a … Continued

Intermediate

Trade talks appear to stumble

US-China trade negotiations started the week with some positive comments from both sides, but by Tuesday the soundings from both the US and China  were more negative, with China looking for a roll back of tariffs, whilst President Trump threatened the imposition of further tariffs if a deal faltered. In addition, the market fears that … Continued

Intermediate

Risks to Global Growth in 2020

OECD growth expectations have deteriorated Weak trade flows are a serious concern There is a need for greater urgency on a global basis to tackle climate change The U.S. will turn inwards in election year, so growth in China will be crucial The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has said in a new … Continued

Intermediate

Forex marking time

Minor negatives on Euro and Kiwi (EURUSD and NZDUSD) Dollar Yen (USDJPY) dictated by S&P 500, which is in breakout mode

Intermediate

Market Turning Points – Topping Behavior

Market Overview For the past three weeks SPX has been grinding higher, seemingly glued to the exterior of the lower line of the blue channel which started at the 2346 low.  That channel line has served as a strong resistance line and, sooner or later, prices are going to fall away from it, potentially indicating … Continued

Intermediate

The Forex Zone Forecasts – FX paralysis, with conflicting trade talk signals

Forex markets are mixed with varied and conflicting signals coming from both sides in the US-Sino trade talks. The Forex Zone looks at day trade possibilities and forecasts for the major Forex rates; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY. EURUSD: Intermediate-term bullish shift with probe of key 1.1092/93 A Thursday spike higher above the key 1.1092/93 resistance … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD upside threat to key 1.1092/93

A shift to a risk off theme over the past 24-26 hours has seen a move to safe havens, with the Euro outpacing the US Dollar, pushing EURUSD higher. This risk off tone has been driven by mixed signals from the US-China trade talks and growing concerns as the US impeachment enquiry has entered the … Continued

Intermediate

US indices hit further new record highs: S&P 500 Daily Forecast

An erratic Tuesday session with initial gains to a new record high for the S&P 500, alongside the major US equity indices, with ongoing hopes from last week on positive soundings from the US-China trade talks. However, some negative rumours from China alongside further tariff threats from President Trump saw stock markets retreat through the … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD Forecast: Upside threat to key 1.3013 reinforced

The Conservative party lead over Labour has seemed to be stretching over the past week, with polls indicating a lead of up t 17-points now, up from 10-points last week. This, alongside the Brexit Party last week standing down candidates in marginal seats that the Conservatives could win, has increased the potential for a Conservative … Continued

Intermediate

US stock averages stay strong hitting new record levels

11th-15th November 2019 USD The US Dollar performed well at the beginning of last week, however its strong performance depleted on Friday after disappointing US Retail Sales and because of a more positive outlook for the US-China trade talks. As a result of this, the Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.4% to close the week just … Continued

Intermediate

Trade News Still Relevant? – Market Turning Points

Market Overview Until Thursday’s close, the price action looked toppy!  For the past week, prices had traded in a narrow range and negative divergence had appeared at the daily and hourly level, and the fear & greed index has been at “extreme greed” for over a week.  Furthermore, we are in a time frame when … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar negative tone

Timing reversal on US Dollar Index creates a negative in a sideways trend. EURUSD posts opposite, positive signal to the US Dollar Index Aussie (AUDUSD) continues to underperform

Intermediate

The Forex Zone Forecasts – A solid US Dollar tone with risk on theme

The US Dollar has remained firm, though slightly hesitant driven by positivity from the US-Sino trade talks and upbeat comments from various Fed speakers on the US economy. The Forex Zone looks at day trade possibilities and forecasts for the major Forex rates; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY. EURUSD: Prod at key 1.0989 A … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD Forecast – Upside bias

A Thursday rebound to reject the minor Wednesday setback that held above the 1.2815/1.2799 support area, to retain upside forces from Monday’s surge up through the November down trend line and also 1.2832 and 1.2878 resistances, to leaves risks higher for Friday. We see an upside bias for 1.2898; break here quickly aims for 1.2917 and maybe notable 1.2976. … Continued

Intermediate

Euro vulnerable, at key support into GDP release

EURUSD remains vulnerable into Thursday with both potentially negative influences on the Euro side and possibly positive impacts on the US Dollar side. Today the focus will be on Jerome Powell’s second day of testimony to Congress, with Eurozone GDP earlier this morning. We continue to see risks for a more negative outcome on the … Continued

Intermediate

Equities stay solid through Trump speech

A much-hyped speech from US President Trump on the US-China trade talks Tuesday had muted impact as the major US equity averages probed higher hitting new all-time highs ahead of the speech. There was nothing particularly new from President Trump highlighting a phase one deal was close, but also stating that if an agreement was … Continued

Intermediate

Fed Can’t See the Bubbles Through the Lather

Recently, there has been a parade of central bankers along with their lackeys on Wall Street coming on the financial news networks and desperately trying to convince investors that there are no bubbles extant in the world today. Indeed, the Fed sees no economic or market imbalances anywhere that should give perma-bulls cause for concern. … Continued

Intermediate

Pound surges after Brexit Party “stands down”

The spotlight shifted to the UK on Monday, where general election politics had a significant impact on the Pound. Nigel Farage stated that the Brexit Party would not put candidates up for election in those parliamentary seats that were won by the Conservative Party in 2017. This is seen as a positive for the Tories, … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar rebounds with stock still strong

Recap for 4th-8th November 2019 USD The US Dollar made a slight reversal last week; however, it continues to trade in a very volatile way. We saw strong ISM data, which helped boost the dollar higher, but its main driver was the US/China trade talks progression. As a result of this, the Dollar Index (DXY) … Continued

Intermediate

Cycles Peaking – Market Turning Points

Market Overview The best guesstimate is that SPX is in the process of creating an intermediate top, probably the B-wave of wave-4 of the bull market.  The only thing that would disprove this view is if market strength continued with IWM beginning to take the lead.  Since this is obviously not happening, we’ll have to … Continued

Intermediate

Macrowatch – Positive soundings on US-China trade talks

The trade talks between the US and China saw positive soundings from both sides. There were rumours of a delayed deal signing (from November back to December), BUT both sides are said to be considering rolling back tariffs as part of the Phase One deal (though Trump stated Friday he had not agreed to this). … Continued

Intermediate

The Forex Zone – US Dollar strength resumes

The US Dollar has seen a strong recovery over the past week in reaction to the early November publication of the October US Employment report, which was very robust. The recovery has been assisted by broadly positive news flow from the US-China trade talks. The Forex Zone spotlights day trade views for the major Forex … Continued

Intermediate

GBP in focus into the Bank of England Meeting

The macroeconomic spotlight Thursday is on the Bank of England Meeting and no changes in interest rates are expected. Financial market participants will focus on the any change in tone given shifts in UK economic political backdrop with the calling of a general election since the last meeting. The US Dollar has stayed firm this … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar positive with risk on theme aiming USDJPY higher

The US Dollar has rallied recently as US Treasury Bonds have continued to slide lower in price (to higher yields), with these safe haven assets losing their appeal as global financial markets stay within the current “risk on” environment. This lower yield move has encouraged a strengthening of the US Dollar, with the US currency … Continued

Intermediate

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) rebounds after RBA Meeting

Tuesday has already seen the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leave interest rates unchanged at their meeting but signal again that a ‘gentle turning point’ appears to have been reached in the economy. This has seen the Australian Dollar perform well versus the US Dollar overnight as the tone continues to shift to more positive, … Continued

Beginner

US Dollar weakness and equity strength

USD The US Dollar fell slightly last week, an unusual week considering Powell was not as dovish as expected and Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations Friday. The Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.7% to close the week at 97.12. EUR A very quiet week on the Euro front as it remained sideways, Mario Draghi finally passed over … Continued

Intermediate

Intermediate Topping Process Continues

Market Overview Last week SPX and NDX made a new all-time high.  DJIA failed to do so by a small margin.  NYA (the broadest index) remained well below its January 2018 high.  And, of course, IWM clearly remains in a 14-month downtrend.  It’s obvious that the stock market, as a whole, is a mixed bag.  … Continued

Intermediate

MacroWatch – Fed cuts rates and a UK general election for December

The Federal Reserve met last Wednesday and as markets had priced in, a third 2019 rate cut for 2019 was delivered by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC also indicated a pause, that the “mid-cycle adjustment” was complete (for now). US equities and stock averages pushed higher (as did global share markets), whilst … Continued

Intermediate

Good News, Bad Action

US Dollar continues to slide in spite of a strong US Employment report The US Dollar Index downside target remains distant Upside targets for the major currencies  (EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, NZD) are also some distance off

Intermediate

American Employment Growth Justifies Fed Caution

Non-Farm Payrolls in October exceeded expectations The only concern is manufacturing which continues to struggle The Fed seems justified in pausing on rates for now The declines durable goods orders and a build of excess capacity will need watching Non-Farm Payrolls in the U.S. is arguably the most important economic statistic in the world. It … Continued

Intermediate

BITCOIN Is Still Dominating In The Crypto Market

Hello traders,today we will talk about overall Crypto market and its Dominance. BITCOIN and most of the ALTcoins have seen a deeper decline in the last couple of months, mainly because BTC have been losing its dominance. But, after that strong BTCUSD bounce, seems like BTC Dominance is back, especially if we take a look … Continued

Intermediate

The Forex Zone – US Dollar weakens post Fed rate cut

The US Dollar sold off across the board from Wednesday after the Federal reserve cut interest rates, leaving the immediate risks for the greenback lower into today’s US Employment report. The Forex Zone highlights day trade ideas for the major Forex rates; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY. EURUSD: Bull theme intact A Thursday … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks push higher again on the Fed

The key focus Wednesday was on the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting and as expected a third rate cut for 2019 was delivered by the Fed. Although the Federal Reserve did indicate that the “mid-cycle adjustment” was likely over and they were on pause, markets reacted as if the Fed were dovish, with US Bonds … Continued

Intermediate

USDCAD in focus into the Fed and BoC Meetings

The US Dollar has moved even more into the trading spotlight over the past 24 hours as markets eye the Fed Meeting today (Wednesday 30th October). Markets are anticipating a rate cut, the third in this mid-cycle adjustment, but also with possibility of a slightly less dovish tone (de facto more hawkish), with expectations growing … Continued