Current Market Analysis

The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis.

But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:

  • If to buy or sell an asset
  • At which levels to enter a trade
  • At which level to put the target to hopefully take profit on the trade
  • Or, if the analysis proves incorrect, when and where is the trade wrong and at which level to exit the trade.

In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.


Intermediate

GBP catches a solid bid – breaks above Median Andrew Pitchfork line

Sterling jumped on Thursday after Germany’s Angela Merkel says Brexit backstop solution is possible by October 31st. In response GBP/USD pushed to its highest since late July, breaking above the median line of a bearish Andrews Pitchfork. Close above 1.2249/50 could allow GBP to continue higher, targeting the following key upside levels:  c.1.2335 – Upper … Continued

Intermediate

Stock indices poised for more positive signals

A firm recovery tone has been seen across global stock markets since the end of last week, that continued into Wednesday’s release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, from when the Fed cut rates in late July. This positive price action has been a reflection of a lack of escalation on the trade war and if … Continued

Intermediate

DJ EuroStoxx 50 (Eu50) Futures – 20190822

Recap EuroStoxx we wrote: First resistance at 3358/62 but above here allows a retest of 3375/80. A break higher today meets a selling opportunity at 3390/3400, with stops above 3410. We hit the selling opportunity & topped exactly here but no sell off yet to offer a profit on shorts. Daily Forecast – 22 August … Continued

Intermediate

Crude OIL – Triangle Pattern on Energy Points Lower!

Hello fellow traders, A bigger triangle as part of a three-wave A-B-C reversal can be unfolding on crude oil in wave B. Now we are tracking final stages of a triangle, so be aware of a drop once final leg E of a triangle fully shows up. A drop below the lower triangle line would … Continued

Intermediate

Global markets poised into Fed Meeting Minutes; USDJPY in focus

Global financial markets remain nervous and volatile due to trade war tensions and concerns regarding the global economic slowdown and recessionary fears for the US economy. Today’s FOMC Minutes from the last meeting could provide directional tone across asset classes in the short-term. Here we focus on the risk barometer from the Forex markets, the … Continued

Intermediate

Global stock averages basing, led by the S&P 500

The trade war is still dominating the global financial market landscape, with various statements and rumours from both the USA and China throughout August, leading to erratic and volatile price action for global asset classes, with equity indices signalling intermediate-term vulnerability earlier this month. BUT there have been positives, with the US and China indicating … Continued

Intermediate

DJ EuroStoxx 50 (Eu50) Futures 20190820

EuroStoxx topped exactly at resistance at 3375/80 as expected & shorts worked on the dip to 3358/62. Minor support at 3350/47 then strong support at 3325/20. Longs need stops below 3315. A break lower targets 3305 & 3290/85. First resistance at 3375/80 of course. A break higher today meets a selling opportunity at 3390/3400, with … Continued

Intermediate

FTSE 100 Daily, Intra Technicals

DAILY FTSE 100: BEARISH; Market continues its bounce of lows. UK benchmark continues rally from Aug lows @ 7020 set last Thursday, trading back above the 50% retrace of the Dec18-Jul19 uptrend. Market remains negative on the medium term as it trades below our key EMA’s. 50/21 EMA’s continue trending lower, 200 begins to tilt … Continued

Intermediate

FX Explained MacroWatch: w/c 19/08/19

Recap The trade war continues to dominate global financial market price action, with various leaks, rumours and statements from both the US and China over the past week creating very volatile market conditions across Stock, Bond, Forex and Commodity markets. Moreover, the plunge in US Treasury Bond yields to multi-year and in some place historic … Continued

Intermediate

Correction Continues

Last week’s 800-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrials made it clear that we are in an extended, ongoing correction. Despite a strong rally at the end of the week which is most likely a counter-trend rally, we should not see the end of the corrective process until the middle of next month.  The fact … Continued

Intermediate

The Forex Zone – Erratic activity as trade tensions send mixed signals

Here in The Forex Zone we review the day trade views for most the major Forex currencies in a volatile week for FX markets amid ongoing trade concerns and inverting yield curves. Again, we spotlight the significant levels to watch and the directional biases for the key Forex pairs; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and … Continued

Intermediate

Dax weekly report 20190815

Dax retests & holds the low so far at 11435. A break lower targets 11400/380, 11320/300 & below 11280 risks a slide as far as support at 11180/170. Bulls need a double bottom at 11435/425 to trigger a recovery targeting 11485/495 & first resistance at 11520/530. If we continue higher look for 11580/590 & minor … Continued

Intermediate

US yield curve inversion sees global stocks resume bear theme

An inversion of the US Treasury 2-10yr yield curve on Wednesday was the first such occurrence since 2007. This sent negative shock waves through global financial markets, as an inversion of this segment of the yield curve is often a signal of a future resurrection in the US. Furthermore, the US 30yr Bond moved to … Continued

Intermediate

AUDNZD and EURNZD Both Stopping for A Pullback!

AUDNZD unfolded five legs within wave a, which can be part of a bigger, bullish reversal. Completed five legs within a trend indicate a three-wave retracement to follow, which is already the case on AUDNZD; an a)-b)-c) pullback to around 1.043/1.039 region, where bulls may again take over. A later rise in impulsive fashion would … Continued

Intermediate

US$ rebounds as trade tensions ease, EURUSD vulnerable

Trade tensions have eased over the past 24 hours, with the US stating they would delay the imposition of new tariffs until 15th December and also that trade negotiations would resume shortly. This sent riskier assets higher, with equites rallying and saw a selloff in safe havens, notably the Japanese Yen (USDJPY surging higher) and … Continued

Intermediate

Share indices look vulnerable again

In last week’s spotlight on the German benchmark share index, the DAX we highlighted a more resilient tone for global equity indices (after the aggressive selloffs at the start of August). However, an inability to build on basing efforts, a lack of any positive news on the trade war, the protests in Hong Kong and … Continued

Intermediate

DAX Report 2019-08-13

Dax is holding what is now resistance at 11700/720 on the bounce to re-target 11650 & 11610/600. Further losses target 11550/560 perhaps as far as 11470/460 before a retest of the low so far at 11435. A break lower targets 11400/380, 11320/300 & below 11280 risks a slide as far as support at 11180/170. Bulls … Continued

Intermediate

60.0 Region Can be Seen on NZDJPY

Hello fellow traders, NZDJPY recently broke below the recent swing low of wave D of a bigger triangle correction, which now suggests a completed triangle, and a bearish continuation. If that is the case, then a five-wave drop may follow into a higher degree wave C), targeting 60.0 region. NZDJPY, Weekly On the 4h chart … Continued

Intermediate

GBP weakness

Pound stays down (GBPUSD)Aussie reaches major downside target (AUDUSD)

Intermediate

More Weakness Ahead

After several weeks of distribution at its recent high, the bottom dropped out and was followed by a 200-point decline in the SPX in about a week’s time.  The decline found support at the bottom trend line of a bullish channel which started to form at the December 2018 low of 2346.  That, and a … Continued

Intermediate

FX Explained MacroWatch: w/c 12/08/19

Recap A reaction last Sunday/ Monday from China with a currency depreciation versus the US Dollar; USDCNY pushed through the 7.00 barrier. This stimulated another aggressive global stock market selloff Monday, with major global equity averages echoing selloffs seen at the end of July and to start August. The lack of further trade war tensions … Continued

Intermediate

The Flame Of Natural Gas Is Flickering Out

As the Fed indicate rate cuts are coming gold will keep rising over the summer There is a disconnect between asset price inflation and the real economy Earnings will be flat or disappointing and too much debt has little or negative yield U.S. Natural Gas futures look to be ready to break below the $2.00 … Continued

Intermediate

GOLD: Holding Near Highs After This Weeks Surge. 1509 Key

GOLD broke the 1500 level for the first time since 2013, a psychologically important figure. In our prior post we highlighted topside targets to GOLD as the precious metal pushed out of a consolidation pattern. Safe haven demand has underpinned GOLD amid rising global trade tensions and as the global economic picture becomes more gloomy. Central banks … Continued

Intermediate

Stock averages still trying to form better bases and recoveries

Global equity indices are continuing to prove resilient this week after the aggressive selloff seen at the start of August last week and again on Monday this week. The moves lower have been driven by global growth concerns in the wake of an escalation in trade war tensions between the US and China. The solid … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD stays vulnerable to further weakness

Equity market turmoil due to global trade war tensions in early August have had muted impact on the GBPUSD Forex rate. The US Dollar has been slightly weaker across major currencies during the recent market turbulence, but Sterling has been unable to show a decent recovery against the US currency. This reflects ongoing convers regarding … Continued

Intermediate

BTCUSD and EURNZD – Both Bullish! (Elliott Wave)

BTCUSD is recovering in a five-wave manner up from the 9200 region, where a higher degree correction had found a base. We see a clear recovery underway, which can now be stopping for a temporary correction as wave (iv), which can be either a flat or a triangle. Once wave (iv) fully develops, that is … Continued

Intermediate

Emini Dow Jones Nasdaq Forecast

Emini Dow Jones minor resistance at 25370/390 then strong resistance at 25550/580. Shorts need stops above 25600 for the next target of 25740/750 & strong resistance at 25880/920. Very minor support at 25285/255 before the low at 25050/030. Best support at 25000/24900 so a break below 24800 is a sell signal targeting important support at … Continued

Intermediate

Equities plunge, BUT looking for a rebound today

An extremely aggressive selloff across the global stock markets on Monday in reaction to an escalating trade war between the US and China. The major US equity averages suffered their worst day of 2019, reinforcing intermediate-term bear trends established after the selloff last week that began August. HOWEVER, further losses and then rebound overnight into … Continued

Intermediate

Copper Holds Below Key Trendline

We downgrade our neutral conviction stated in our prior post on Copper to Short.  Bears finally pierced a major uptrend line dating back from 2016. Trendline, now at 2.6099 may offer bears further opportunities to sell on retracements.  Trending setups reinforce the near-term negativity as 50/21-Week EMA’s continue lower. Momentum setups too confirm bear themes as MACD … Continued

Intermediate

Market Turning Points – 2019-08-05

“It ain’t over till it’s over!”  IT’S OVER! My view was that for the last couple of weeks, the market was just hanging around waiting for a catalyst to put an end to its suffering!  Last week we got two!  The first was when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-point at Wednesday’s … Continued

Intermediate

FX Explained MacroWatch: w/c 05/08/19

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concluded Wednesday with an expected 25bp rate cut, which saw equity markets push lower, frustrated with a less dovish tone than expected, BUT then a more plunge lower for stocks and a US$ strengthening in the wake of Chairman Powell’s comments, stating the rate cut was a “mid-cycle … Continued

Intermediate

Emini S&P 500 & Nasdaq September Contract

Emini S&P topped exactly at key trend line resistance at 3030/3040 making a new all time high on Friday. Obviously this is the most important level of the week. A sustained break higher is a buy signal despite overbought conditions, for 3046/48, 3056/60 & 3070/74. Failure to beat 3030/3040 triggers profit taking to 3019/17 (& … Continued

Intermediate

Market Turning Points 2019-07-28

Lately, the market trend has been reduced to a grinding move to new highs – or is it really “the market”?  Inspired by a new high in the Nasdaq 100, SPX made a new high this past week!  But the Dow did not!  And the NYSE composite – the broadest exchange of all – did … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD Set to Slide as Economies Diverge

ECB should have acted now; not delayed The economic data in the Eurozone is weak and getting worse The U.S. economy is coping incredibly well The Fed will cut rates, but the ECB has a more urgent need to act The ECB held interest rates unchanged at their meeting on Thursday July 25, 2019 with … Continued

Intermediate

WTI Crude Daily Forecast July 25th 2019

WTI Crude quickly collapsed back below 5695/5705 signalling losses to 5660/55, first support at 5630/20 then 5580/70 & 5540/30. We bottomed exactly here but further losses target 5500 before support at 5470/60. A break below 5440 is a sell signal targeting 5405/00, 5380/70, 5350/40 & perhaps as far as 5310/00. Gains are likely to be … Continued

Intermediate

What the World Doesn’t Need Now is Lower Rates

The Q2 earnings season is upon us and the risks to the rally that started after the worst December on record at the close of last year is in serious jeopardy. We received a glimpse of this with some of the current companies that have reported. For example, to understand how dangerous this earnings reporting … Continued

Intermediate

Market Turning Points – 2019-07-21

Current Position of the Market SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question. Intermediate trend – The continued strength has muddied the water and we may have to wait until August/September before the intermediate trend becomes more clear. Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily … Continued

Intermediate

Sterling Support will be Short-lived

Sterling has little positive technical sentiment beyond the very opening on July 22nd The benefits Sterling may gain from a Fed rate cut are overwhelmed by Brexit The future of Sterling will be dictated by the way Brexit is conducted Target Sterling to drop as amid the uncertainty the path of least resistance is lower … Continued

Intermediate

Golden Breakout: Potential for 1,486 for spot gold

We upgrade our neutral conviction on GOLD, mentioned in our prior post, to buy. Yesterday saw a solid 1.3% rise in XAUUSD on the back of a weaker USD, Middle East tensions and Ray Dalio comments. The precious metal broke above key 1,438.63 resistance and a consolidation pattern. A close near the top reinforces bull … Continued

Intermediate

Elliott wave Analysis: GBPUSD On A Bearish Ride

Hello fellow traders! GBPUSD is looking bearish and can now be unfolding final stages of a sub-wave 3) of blue wave 1. We are observing minor leg 5 of 3) in progress, with possible support, and a turn into a corrective wave 4) around the Fibonacci ratio of 261.8 (1.235/1.223 region). GBPUSD, Daily On the … Continued

Intermediate

Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like ’95 or ‘07?

You should completely understand that the market is dangerously overvalued and that global economic growth has slowed to a crawl along with S&P 500 earnings. However, you must also be wondering when the massive overhang of unprecedented debt levels, artificial market manipulations, and the anemic economy will finally shock Wall Street to a brutal reality. … Continued

Intermediate

Gold Getting a Boost as Fed Expresses Concern

As the Fed indicate rate cuts are coming gold will keep rising over the summer  There is a disconnect between asset price inflation and the real economy  Earnings will be flat or disappointing and too much debt has little or negative yield  I last looked at Gold on May 26, 2019 when I called for … Continued

Intermediate

Market Turning Points – 2019-07-15

Current Position of the Market SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question. Intermediate trend –  The continued strength has muddied the water and we may have to wait until August/September before the intermediate trend becomes more clear. Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily … Continued

Intermediate

FX Explained MacroWatch: w/c 15/07/19

Recap On Wednesday the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress, continuing the dovish tone seen from June, as markets were looking for and had mostly discounted, though three was also apprehension that the tone could be less dovish in the wake of the robust June US Employment report, published in early July. The Chairman … Continued