Current Market Analysis

The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis.

But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:

  • If to buy or sell an asset
  • At which levels to enter a trade
  • At which level to put the target to hopefully take profit on the trade
  • Or, if the analysis proves incorrect, when and where is the trade wrong and at which level to exit the trade.

In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.


Intermediate

EURUSD dips on Brexit concerns & Texas Instruments revenue warnings

A dip lower for the Euro on Tuesday give concerns regarding Brexit. The UK Parliament agreed to progress the Brexit deal but then took control of the timetable, which the government would not accept. The government then paused any further passage of the Brexit bill as Boris Johnson stated that he would await the response … Continued

Intermediate

Brexit deal hopes sees GBPUSD break 1.30

The Pound has stayed strong on global Forex markets, despite disappointment at the weekend, with the so called “Super Saturday” not so “Super” as the Government failed to progress its new Brexit deal with the EU. However, the new Brexit deal just seems on course to be pushed through Parliament before the 31st October deadline, … Continued

Intermediate

Gold & Silver Forecast

Recap Gold trades sideways holding minor resistance at 1493/94 before a slide to very minor support at 1488/87 but we held the next target of 1482/81. Silver beat key resistance at 1750/60 for a buy signal but we just missed the 1790 target. Daily Forecast – 22 October 2019 Gold first resistance at 1488/91 but … Continued

Intermediate

Weekly Report / Overview 14th October 2019 – 20th October 2019

USDThe US Dollar continued its decline last week, which has seen a large amount of bullish positions starting to unwind. The Dollar Index (DXY) fell 1.2% to close the week at 97.14. EURThe Euro stayed steady and took advantage of a weaker Dollar, with EUR/USD pushing higher on the week, even though the Eurozone CPI … Continued

Intermediate

Market Turning Points – More Congestion (Distribution)

Market Overview SPX traded in a less than 50-point range last week, continuing what appears to be the formation of an intermediate distribution top which could bring a sizeable correction when complete.   IWM, which has done a good job of acting as a barometer for SPX still provides the same reading of relative weakness, thereby … Continued

Intermediate

MacroWatch A new Brexit deal sends GBPUSD surging close to 1.30

The UK Government last week built on the prior week’s breakthrough with the Irish Government with UK and European Union agreeing a new Brexit deal. The attention turned to the UK Parliament Saturday for a meaningful vote on the new deal, but the Letwin amendment (an insurance policy to ensure that a no deal Brexit … Continued

Expert

US Dollar extends losses

Euro breaks up and leaves a distant target (EURUSD) Aussie breaks higher (AUDUSD) Yen produces minor negative (USDJPY)

Intermediate

The Forex Zone – The Pound (GBP) soars on Brexit deal agreement

A new Brexit deal has seen the GB Pound surge once more against major currencies with GBPUSD nearly hitting 1.30, whilst the US Dollar stays broadly weak. The Forex Zone highlights day trade ideas for the major Forex rates; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY. EURUSD: Intermediate-term bull shift above key 1.1110 (as flagged) … Continued

Intermediate

Euro stays firm (EURUSD)

The US Dollar remains on the backfoot across major currencies (apart from the safe-haven Japanese Yen), with the USD weakening due to a global “risk on” scenario and with ongoing anticipation of further easing from the US Federal Reserve into latter 2019. Alongside this US Dollar weakness, the Euro has advances on growing hopes and … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD – GBPJPY Forecast 17 October 2019

Recap GBPUSD we wrote: higher to the next target of 1.2780/90 & above 1.2800 targets minor resistance at 1.2830/40. On further gains look for 1.2860/65… These targets were hit & we topped 10 pips above. GBPJPY bounced 17 pips above strong support at 137.30/20 & shot higher through 138.15, 139.30 & 139.60/70 to top just … Continued

Intermediate

European equities surge on Brexit hopes and positive US earnings (DAX)

European stock markets and equity indices surged higher again Tuesday with ongoing positive comments from Brexit negotiations. This has built on the constructive breakthrough last week and also on the positive US-Sino trade talks. In addition, US earnings season started in earnest Tuesday with a host of financial companies reporting, with earnings and revenues in … Continued

Intermediate

Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?

The mainstream financial media is absolutely ebullient about global central banks’ renewed enthusiasm to cut interest rates to a level that is even lower than they already are. And, most importantly, Wall Street is completely confident that theses marginally-lower borrowing costs will not only be enough to pull the global economy out of its malaise; … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD – GBPJPY – Forex forecast 20191015

Recap GBPUSD longs at support at 1.2590/80 were stopped below 1.2560 but we bottomed exactly at strong support at 1.2520/10 with longs offered up to 130 pips profit on the bounce. 1.2630/40. (We topped exactly here). GBPJPY broke support at 136.10/00 but bottomed exactly at the next target of 135.60/50. Forecast – 15 October 2019GBPUSD … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays firm on Brexit deal hopes (GBPUSD)

Positive soundings last week on Thursday from talks between the UK and Ireland and then Friday between the UK and EU regarding a possible Brexit deal breakthrough have assisted global stocks higher and a stronger Pound. GBPUSD surged from 1.22 to 1.27 on Thursday-Friday. Concerns regarding a breakthrough over the weekend saw Sterling dip on … Continued

Intermediate

MacroWatch – Stocks surge on US-Sino and Brexit deal hopes

Geopolitics came back with a bang last week with a Thursday breakthrough in Brexit negotiations as the Governments in the UK and Ireland declared progress regarding the issue of the Irish border and backstop. This advance was reinforced Friday after positive talks between UK officials and those in the European Union, with more intensive talks … Continued

Intermediate

Range bound – Market Turning Points

Market Overview Ever since it made its all-time high of 3028 on 7/21, SPX has been trading in a 200-point range which could either be a consolidation pattern, or the building of an intermediate top formation.  The same can be said of IWM, although the latter made its high almost a year earlier and is … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar Stays weakened

US Dollar Index confirms negatives (DXY) Euro Positive (EURUSD) Aussie holds support (AUDUSD) Pound breaks up against the Dollar and on the crosses (GBPUSD)

Intermediate

Euro aiming higher with a weakening US Dollar (EURUSD)

A move to higher yields for European Government Bonds given the tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has seen the Euro rally over the past 24 hours. In addition, we see a still vulnerable US Dollar, as the deteriorating US economic data in October has been reflected by a perception of a more dovish Fed, … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD & USDCAD Forecast – 10 October 2019

Recap EURUSD still holding our selling opportunity at 1.1000/10 (for 5 days in a row). Outlook negative as long as we hold below 1.10000. USDCAD holding first support at 1.3310/20 is an important medium term buy signal & yesterday we bounced off 1.3300 with longs offered 25-35 pips profit as I write. Daily Forecast – … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD stays positive as US Dollar is seen weakened

A plunge lower for the US Dollar last week after very negative US ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing data highlighted that the global slowdown is significantly impacting the US economy. A respite for the US$ after Friday’s firm US Employment report with a USD rebound, but the US Dollar’s negative tone has started to resurface into … Continued

Intermediate

Global stocks stay in rebound mode, S&P 500 aims higher

A plunge lower last week with global share markets plummeting in the wake of very negative, US ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing data, plus the heightened tension from the WTO ruling in favour of the US over the EU. However, the intraday rebound from last Thursday through Friday’s US Employment report and again to start this … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD & USDCAD Forecast – 08 October 2019

Recap EURUSD topped exactly at our selling opportunity at 1.1000/10 with shorts offered 40 pips profit as I write. USDCAD holding first support at 1.3310/20 is an important medium term buy signal…we spiked down to 1.3286 but managed a quick recovery. Daily Forecast EURUSD selling opportunity at 1.1000/10 with stops above 1.1025. A break higher … Continued

Intermediate

Gold: It’s All About Real Rates Not the Dollar

The Federal Reserve’s recent need to supply $100’s of billions in new credit for the overnight repo market underscores the condition of dollar scarcity in the global financial system. This dearth of dollars and its concomitant strength has left most market watchers baffled. Since 2008, the Fed has printed $3.8 trillion (with a “T”) of … Continued

Intermediate

FX Explained MacroWatch 071019 – US data disappoints, stocks and the US Dollar dive lower

US macroeconomic data became a key driver of financial markets last week with Tuesday’s and Thursday’s releases from the US Institute of Supply Management (ISM). The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for September was 47.8% on Tuesday, the lowest level since 2009 and then Thursday’s Non-Manufacturing Index was 52.6,with expectations of 55.3, notably down from August’s … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar weakens

Dollar index stalls in weekly zone (DXY) Euro holds key support (EURUSD) Support strengthens in the Aussie (AUDUSD) Yen a hostage to the S&P 500 (USDJPY)

Intermediate

Service sector decline points to an American economic reversal

U.S. Services PMI is at its weakest for three-years The growth in new business is stalling Job creation averaged 161,000 per month in 2019, cf. 223,000 in 2018 The re-election prospects of the president are taking a tumble Meeting minutes from the Fed will be keenly watched in the week ahead for further indications as … Continued

Intermediate

Market Turning Points – Back to Neutral

Market Overview After a plunge of 137 points to 2856 early in the week, SPX staged a strong two-day rally back to 2952 to end the week with a minor loss instead of something much larger, had the 40-week cycle continued to push prices lower.  The question to ask is whether or not the 40-week … Continued

Intermediate

The Forex Zone – US Dollar weakness on Fed rate cut concerns

A weaker US Dollar this week with a global and more specifically US risk off theme emerging, with trade tension escalating to Europe and poor US ISM Manufacturing data highlighting US economic weakness. The Forex Zone looks at day trade set ups for the major Forex pairs; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY. EURUSD: … Continued

Will Risk-off Continue? Elliott Wave on GOLD and SP500

Gold and silver are moving higher after another weak US data; weakest ISM non-manufacturing report in 3 years! We see them breaking to the high of the day, but it can be fifth wave moving into Elliott Wave channel resistance so market may start slowing down in the very near term, but only for a … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD & USDCAD – Forecast – 03 October 2019

Recap EURUSD we wrote: outlook negative if we hold below 1.0940 targeting 1.0920/10. This worked but we then unexpectedly reversed & broke higher to strong resistance at 1.0960/70. As I write we topped exactly here. USDCAD down 1 day & up the next for 2 weeks but we finally broke higher yesterday to test 2nd … Continued

Intermediate

FTSE 100 and global stocks plunge after weak US Manufacturing

A plunge lower Wednesday for the FTSE 100, the UK’s broad, benchmark stock index, with global share markets also plummeting. This has been in the wake of Tuesday’s very negative, US ISM Manufacturing data, highlighting a slowing US economy. Concerns that the US economy is now being impacted by the global trade war and economic … Continued

Intermediate

Australian Dollar reflects geopolitical concerns (AUDUSD)

A plunge lower for the Australian Dollar to start October having already been weakened through latter September, as the Australian economy continues to weaken with risks growing for a possible rate cut. This has echoed ongoing, global geopolitical concerns from the US-Sino trade war, the Chinese slowing of economic data, Middle East tensions and the … Continued

Intermediate

Watching Paint Dry in the Repo Market Part 2

The Fed has now begun to pave the way for a return to Quantitative Easing. The reason for this was the recent spike in borrowing rates in the Repo market. At his latest press, Chair Powell said this about the spike in the Effective Fed Funds and Repo rates: “Going forward, we’re going to be … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays vulnerable

Indecision around UK politics remains to the fore with more than just confusion regarding the path of Brexit into the end of this month, with the 31st October now looming. The UK political backdrop is very fragile, with outcomes very difficult to predict for the coming days, weeks and months. Our best guess is for … Continued

Intermediate

FX Explained MacroWatch: w/c 30/09/19 – Trump impeachment enquiry

Recap: Trump impeachment enquiry and UK politics to the fore The main event last week was the publication of the conversation between US President Trump and the Ukrainian President. Subsequently, Nancy Pelosi (the House of Representatives Speaker), has initiated an impeachment inquiry into President Trump’s actions. The impact on riskier assets classes (notable stock markets) … Continued

Intermediate

Caution Warranted – Market Turning Points

Market Overview On Friday, with daily SRSI and the A-D indicator already in the red, the daily CCI dipped into the red.  That makes it unanimous and tips the market trend from neutral to negative.  It is not something that should be ignored!  In the past, this has led to a serious decline.  In addition, … Continued

Intermediate

The Forex Zone – US Dollar stays strong

A broadly stronger US Dollar over the past week is the main theme across global Forex pairs. The Forex Zone focuses on day trades for the major currency pairs; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDJPY. EURUSD: Bear theme further reinforced A Thursday selloff to probe below the multi-month lows at 1.0926/24 and reinforce Wednesday … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD & USDCAD Forecast 20190927

Recap EURUSD longs at 1.0935/25 worked perfectly as we topped exactly at the 1.0965/75 target. We then broke important support at the September low at 1.0935/25. USDCAD trades sideways in a range from 1.3230 to 1.3300/10 for almost 2 weeks & we just held the lower end of the range yesterday. Daily Forecast – 27 … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar strength sends EURUSD down through support

The US Dollar stays broadly strong, with the US currency rallying at times this week (and in fact over recent weeks) in both risk on and risk off scenarios. Risk off – The USD saw strength earlier this week on the Trump impeachment threat (although the greenback did lose ground versus the Japanese Yen) Risk … Continued

Intermediate

Risk off scenario sees the Japanese Yen rally (sets USDJPY lower)

A broader risk off scenario has taken hold this week, with global stock averages signalling short-term topping patterns. This has been a reaction to various factors including trade war concerns, Middle East tensions and more recently the heightened impeachment threat to US President Trump. This has produced a “flight to quality” across asset classes with … Continued

Intermediate

NZD/USD – Continues higher after after Bullish Reversal pattern. Watch 0.6350

NZD/USD continued higher on Tuesday after yesterday’s Bullish reversal candle pattern. The Piercing Pattern, which is similar to the Bullish Engulfing skews s-t risks higher. Market closed above the midpoint of the of the Friday bear candle suggesting a s-t turn in sentiment. Reinforcing the pattern is the Bullish Divergence on the RSI. RSI formed a higher low … Continued

Intermediate

Pound wobbles as Brexit deal seems distant

The Pound rallied to a new recovery high late last week after hopes of a Brexit deal were increased by positive comments from the ECs Junker. However, these hopes were subsequently dashed by various sources including comments from Ireland that a deal was still a long way off, which has seen the Pound falter back … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD & USDCAD Forecast 20190924

Recap EURUSD broke minor support at 1.1000/1.0990 to hit the next target of 1.0970/60 & bottomed exactly here. USDCAD shorts at strong resistance at 1.3300/10 worked perfectly on the collapse to first support at 1.3250/40 & we bottomed exactly here for a quick & easy 50 pips profit. Daily Forecast – 24 September 2019 EURUSD … Continued

Intermediate

Watching Paint Dry in the Repo Market Part 1

The world of fixed income trading has been extremely volatile lately. Rates have not only spiked in the Treasury market but borrowing costs in money markets have also become extremely disconcerting. The residual effects from Quantitative Tightening, which ended just this past July, are wreaking havoc on the liquidity in bond markets.  Ironically, the Fed’s … Continued

Intermediate

Top Almost Confirmed

Market Overview Last week, the market action came just short of confirming an important top in SPX.  On 9/12, the index made a new rally-high of 3021, seven points shy of the 3028 top of 7/26.  There was some cautious selling going into the FOMC meeting scheduled for the following week, leading into some volatility … Continued

Intermediate

FxExplained MacroWatch: w/c 23/09/19 – Fed rate cut overwhelmed by Trade and Middle East tensions

The geopolitical driven event last week was the aggressive oil price surge in reaction to the attacks on the Saudi Arabian oil fields. The oil price quickly reversed back lower, however, as it materialised that the output shortfall would not be as drastic as first supposed. BUT Saudi Arabia have stated they see Iran as … Continued