Current Market Analysis

The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis. But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:

  • If to buy or sell an asset
  • At which levels to enter a trade
  • At which level to put the target to hopefully take profit on the trade
  • Or, if the analysis proves incorrect, when and where is the trade wrong and at which level to exit the trade.

In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.


Beginner

Stock averages surge to all-time highs, growth stocks re-energizing

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments On the Central Bank side last week, we had the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes released on Wednesday and Fed Chairman Powell spoke on Thursday. The FOMC Meeting Minutes and speech by Powell simply reiterated a still ongoing dovish stance. This has seen US yields retreat from multi-year yield highs … Continued

Beginner

US yields hit multi-year highs AND stock averages at record levels

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The global Market and US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports were out on Thursday and were broadly better than expected. The US Employment report for March was released on Friday and the Non-Farm Payroll data far exceeded the anticipated number of 675K, posting at 916K, whilst … Continued

Beginner

Non-Farm Payrolls Proves To Be A Good Signal For Dollar Bulls

Non-Farm Payrolls booked the best gain in seven-months The contrast in vaccine strategy and stimulus spending between the U.S and Europe is striking The economic paths of the U.S. cf. Eurozone and Japan are diverging The Dollar Index is set to rotate higher in an impulsive channel It is an odd fact that Good Friday … Continued

Intermediate

Yields correct lower, but US Dollar strengthens

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments In various speaking engagements this past week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated the US Central Bank’s dovish stance. This saw US yields (and global bonds) move back modestly to lower yield territory (from recent high yield extremes). The German Ifo business climate index for March posted at to 96.6 from 92.7 … Continued

Intermediate

Mixed US Dollar signals – FxExplained.co.uk

Dollar Index and Dollar-Yen break up (DXY and USDJPY forecasts) Aussie and Kiwi post positives (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) EuroPound close to restarting the downtrend (EURGBP forecast)

Intermediate

Sterling To Book Further Gains

EURGBP is in a corrective channel The contrast in vaccine strategy between the U.K and Europe is striking The Eurozone economy is heading toward another recession Sterling is going to continue its outperformance If one looks at the One-Month chart, shown below in Figure 1, one can see the spot price of EURGBP has shown … Continued

Intermediate

Higher bond yields in focus; growth -> value stock rotation continues

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The focus this past week was on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, statement and press conference, with a still very dovish stance emphasised again. However, a slight shift in the dot plot chart towards a possibly earlier than expected rate hike in 2022 from some members eventually … Continued

Intermediate

Forex Signals from Shaun Downey

A very quiet week sees resistance drop on the Dollar Index and lowers the breakout point (DXY forecast) Positive appears on Dollar-CAD (USDCAD forecast) A major buy signal appears on Euro-Pound (EURGBP forecast)

Beginner

Value stocks rally as growth stocks rebound, despite higher yields

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments President Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill was passed into law this week. A lower-than-expected US CPI report on Wednesday calmed inflationary worries and built on the strong US jobs report from the prior week. This sent value stocks surging higher and allowed for a rebound in growth stocks, which continue to … Continued

Intermediate

Dollar Reverses Midweek

Dollar reverses (DXY forecast) Euro posts positive along with Pound  (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts) Kiwi holds support and Dollar-CAD close to breaking down  (NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)

Beginner

US Dollar gains with higher yields, with stocks choppy

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another relatively quiet week for global financial markets from a macroeconomic and geopolitical perspective, but as at the end of February price action across the major asset classes was still volatile. The ongoing development last week was the continuing surge in global yields, particularly in the US and notably at the longer … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar continues to strengthen

Dollar Index break up (DXY forecast) Euro reaches first downside target (EURUSD forecast) Kiwi also hits support target (NZDUSD forecast)

Intermediate

Any Old Iron

Iron Ore Fines spent the last month rotating in an impulsive channel There is disruption to shipments from Brazil Chinese mills are at over 90% capacity and growth plans are ambitious Prices are going to rise early in the week and a break over USD200/Tonne is seen If one looks at the One-Month chart, shown … Continued

Intermediate

Positives on the US Dollar

Positives on the US Dollar Index (DXY forecast)Major negatives posted for Euro, Pound, Aussie, Kiwi and Canadian Dollar versus  the US Dollar.Broad signals for a change in trend for the FX Majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD forecasts)Euro-Pound downtrend ends (EURGBP forecast)

Intermediate

Sterling Soars

GBPUSD has broken the corrective channel as the 200-day moving average is surpassed The 50-day moving average is proving harder to break The economy is staging a recovery; debt is manageable Taxes will rise, but the public will understand If one looks at the long chart of GBPUSD over the past nine-years, shown below in … Continued

Intermediate

Higher yields globally see stocks dip, US Dollar weakness resumes

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another relatively quiet week for financial markets, with the main central bank activity from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releasing their prior Meeting Minutes, with minimal impact on markets. Macroeconomic data releases were on the lighter side with the global Markit Flash Manufacturing and … Continued

Expert

Broad US Dollar weakness resumes

The Pound , Aussie and Kiwi have no resistance (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD forecasts) US Dollar-CAD threatens to breakdown (USDCAD forecast) Euro-Pound continues its descent (EURGBP forecast) 

Intermediate

Stocks grind higher; US Dollar trying to turn back positive

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments An extremely quiet week, with no significant central bank activity, no notable macroeconomic data releases and with earnings season closer to an end, with most of the very big companies already reported. The progression of President Biden’s COVID relief bill has had to take a back seat as the US Senate has … Continued

Beginner

US Dollar 2021 strength is trying to resume

The US dollar has seen significant gains versus major currencies in early 2021 This was assisted by higher US yields in anticipation of a large, Democrat-driven fiscal boost  Corrective US Dollar losses seen over the past week have started to stall This has seen the US Dollar see notable turning points and rally against the … Continued

Intermediate

But You’re Just Aluminium

Aluminium has spent the last month in a rotating, horizontal channel There will be a boost to global demand this year China now has become a producer that has too much inventory Prices are going to rise early in the week, however, excess supply will stall the recovery If one looks at the 12-Month chart, … Continued

Intermediate

Normality returns with “Reddit frenzy” reversed, stocks surge

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments This past week has seen a reversal of the price action from the frenzied stock market activity driven by the Reddit posts, particularly from WallStreetBets. The surge in stocks such as GameStop, AMC and Blackberry, alongside the Silver price was reversed. In turn, the broader markets shrugged off their panic sell offs … Continued

Intermediate

AUDJPY Can Break To New Highs

AUDJPY is very bullish since end of October when pair completed a higher degree pullback. From there we can see sharp recovery with no overlaps so we believe that’s an impulsive trend. Impulses are made by five subwaves so more upside will be expected after current wave four which can be a triangle. It is … Continued

Intermediate

GameStop (GME) frenzy > wider “bubble” concerns > stocks plunge

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments This past week has been all about frenzied stock market exuberance, often a reflection of an inflating equity market “bubble” and the fears and concerns that this activity brings. GameStop shares have skyrocketed in the past week having already seen an aggressive rise in January, driven by a herd mentality of individual … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar recovery theme continues, US earnings mostly inspire

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments President Joe Biden’s inauguration passed without any notable incident, which was likely a relief for financial markets. Four central banks were in play last week, with modest signals from the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank of less dovish, de facto minimally more hawkish tones. Earnings season played a significant … Continued

Beginner

Q1/Q2 Elliott Wave views for the Forex Majors – Exclusive interview with Jim Martens!

Here is an in-depth interview with Jim Martens, Elliott Wave International’s (EWI) Senior Currency Strategist and editor of the trader-focused Currency Pro Service. In this interview, we will discuss the Major currency pairs, including EURUSD, the US Dollar Index (DXY), GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD and USDCAD. Here is a link to a free report on trading … Continued

Intermediate

2021 “risk on” theme stalls, despite US fiscal stimulus statement

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments President-elect Joe Biden announced his American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package on Thursday. However, in some respects this fell short of the anticipation from the markets, with some of the details below the higher end of expectations. The Democrats filed and passed a single article of impeachment through the … Continued

Expert

Dollar switches trend to up

US Dollar Index aims higher (DXY forecast) Euro breaks down – EURUSD forecast Major negatives appear on Pound (GBPUSD forecast) and Aussie (AUDUSD forecast)

Intermediate

Should I invest in American Airlines?

American Airline (AAL) has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as have all the other airlines, which has subsequently destroyed the demand for air travel as people were forced into lockdown. AAL stock went from $29.32 high in February down to $8.23 low in May. Since then, the price has … Continued

Intermediate

The US Dollar in 2021

The dollar index (DXY) has had a good start the first week of this year, compared to the abominable 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has touched all financial markets and the mighty dollar felt the impact of it more than any other main currency. From my last article on March 12, 2020 DXY lost over 8%. … Continued

Intermediate

BTCUSD; A Parabolic Ride Fueled By FOMO

BTCUSD has been making new highs; again The time based technicals are mixed; they suggest more upside The U.S. level of debt : GDP is a driver,  as are the turbulent final days of Trump Many once sceptical voices are now becoming converts “…You gotta take it up a level and go up higher Put … Continued

Intermediate

WTI prices in 2020 and outlook for 2021

The year 2020 was a major crisis for oil prices as the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed demand with economies shutting down. According to IATA, passenger demand for air travel fell in February by 80% in Europe and USA and by 67% in Asia Pacific region. Prices collapsed in March to an unprecedented historic low. Oil practically … Continued

Intermediate

Bullish into 2021 with blue sweep confirmed

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The Democrats won both seats in the Georgia Senate runoff elections from Wednesday, confirming a “blue sweep”, the Democrats now taking control of both houses of Congress alongside the presidency. Then, Thursday saw unprecedented and shocking events in Washington DC, with Trump supporters storming the Capitol building. The fact that President Trump … Continued

Beginner

Global Markets Outlook 2021

Initial Parameters: Chart analysis is technical and taken from medium-term historical pattern Technical projections based on a twelve-month time horizon Targets set are based on the most recent, significant technical adjustment Analysis is based on Elliot Wave and Fibonacci techniques Technical analysis only guides; exogenous factors can shock any market Markets, being capricious, forecasts are … Continued

Expert

US Dollar stays weak as AUDUSD and USDCAD approach key levels

Dollar Index reaches final major support (DXY forecast) Euro breaks up (EURUSD forecast) Pound posts negative (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie reaches major monthly resistance (AUDUSD forecast) Dollar-CAD approaches its major support zone (USDCAD forecast)

Expert

US Dollar bear signals across the Forex markets

US Dollar Index posts negative and targets 91.76 weekly support (DXY forecast) DXY major level lies below at 91.06 (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar posts positive and closes at final resistance, to the pip (EURUSD forecast) Aussie creates positive signal from within weekly support zone (AUDUSD forecast)

Intermediate

US relief package hopes sees “risk on” phase resume

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Republicans and Democrats have still been unable to come to an agreement on a new economic relief package, but hope remains, which has helped the “risk on” theme this past week. This was despite President Trump at one point stating that a deal would NOT be done before the election. The other … Continued

Expert

US Dollar starts to weaken again; EURGBP negative

Negatives on the US Dollar Index (DXY Forecast) Positive signals on the Euro and Aussie to reach their first upside targets (EURUSD and  AUDUSD Forecasts) A fresh negative appears for Euro-Pound (EURGBP Forecast) Dollar-CAD also pointing lower (USDCAD Forecast)

Expert

US Dollar strength fully resumes

Dollar Index reaches major upside target and is at a pivotal point (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar futures has major support close (EURUSD forecast) Aussie breaks key support  (AUDUSD forecast) Kiwi posts major negative (NZDUSD forecast) USD-Loonie breaks up (USDCAD forecast)

Expert

US Dollar looking vulnerable

Pound Breaks up (GBPUSD) Dollar-Yen close to breaking down (USDJPY) Aussie and Kiwi get close to major monthly upside targets (AUDUSD and NZDUSD) Euro-Pound breaks down (EURGBP)

Expert

US Dollar forms support

Euro and Pound move into sideways trends (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts) Dollar-Yen posts a negative (USDJPY forecast)

Intermediate

USDCAD weakness

USDCAD day trade outlook: Still bearish Day trade update and view A Tuesday sell-off to probe below 1.3270 support to 1.3266, then despite a bounce from here to still reinforce Monday’s stall back lower after the Thursday-Friday rebound remained capped by 1.3420 resistance, to renew bear forces from the early August sell-off through the key swing low … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar rebounds, looking firmer

Fresh positive on the US Dollar Index with major zone of support just below (DXY forecast) Euro holds above critical daily support (EURUSD forecast) Big negatives on Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD forecast)