Current Market Analysis

The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis. But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:

  • If to buy or sell an asset
  • At which levels to enter a trade
  • At which level to put the target to hopefully take profit on the trade
  • Or, if the analysis proves incorrect, when and where is the trade wrong and at which level to exit the trade.

In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.


Intermediate

Inflation/ interest rate/ Ukraine fears trigger “risk off”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Increasing worries of global inflationary pressures and fears of even higher interest rates from the major Central Banks have seen a more aggressive shift to a “risk off” phase through mid-January. These concerns have been heightened by the threat of conflict as Russia continues to amass troops on the Ukrainian border. These … Continued

Intermediate

Positive US Dollar tone

A  quiet week sees Pound, Aussie and Kiwi retreat (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD forecasts)  The US Dollar Index reaches first upside target (DXY  forecast)  A major positive appears on EuroPound (EURGBP forecast)

Intermediate

Stocks trying to rebound, despite still more hawkish Fed

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing concerns of global inflationary pressures have seen an erratic start to the year for global markets, seen again last week. The US CPI data for December showed a 7% rise over a year, the highest inflation rate since 1982! Although this was priced in, it continues to fuel inflationary and higher … Continued

Intermediate

Mixed US Dollar Signals

US Dollar Index hits major support and posts positive (DXY forecast) Pound uptrend over (GBPUSD forecast) Negatives appear on Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) Dollar-CAD reverses (USDCAD forecast)

Intermediate

Higher yields and hawkish Fed send stocks lower

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments 2022 kicked off with a continuation of the latter 2021 theme of rising concerns of global inflationary pressures. This saw a rise in not just US bond yields, but in global bond yields, particularly in the major, economic centres. This higher yield theme was reinforced by the release of the Minutes from … Continued

Intermediate

Omicron and hawkish Central Bank fears send stocks lower

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the Omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have resurfaced over the past week. This has been driven by global medical institutions warnings of the more contagious aspect of Omicron the surging numbers of cases in many countries (for example the … Continued

Intermediate

Omicron and inflation fears easing, as “risk on” theme resumes

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the Omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have decreased over the past week. This has been due to positive sounding from vaccine providers and medical institutions regarding the efficacy of vaccines and that the variant could be less severe than … Continued

Beginner

Omicron worries and faster taper talk increase “risk off” pressures

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Concerns that the omicron strain of COVID-19 could contribute to supply chain disruptions and weigh on global economic growth have impacted “riskier” assets. This has been intensified by relatively “hawkish” comments from Federal Chair Jerome Powell in testimony to Congress, indicating inflation worries and the potential to speed up the tapering of … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar breaking major resistances versus AUD and NZD

Aussie Dollar reaches major downside target (AUDUSD forecast) Kiwi breaks down  (NZDUSD forecast) Support rises on the Dollar Index  (DXY forecast) Cable sits just above final weekly based support  (GBPUSD forecast)

Intermediate

EUR/USD: How To Trade The Pair This Week

Fundamental factors EUR/USD ended last week with a steamrolling. This week, the pair keeps edging up. Why? First, the uncertainty over the new Covid-19 variant, omicron, led to a surge in demand in safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss. Since the US dollar lost its safe-haven role, traders preferred the EUR … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar sustains significant losses within G3

US Dollar Index posts major negative (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar a positive (EURUSD forecast) USD-JPY breaks down (USDJPY forecast) Aussie Dollar approaches major support (AUDUSD forecast)

Growth stocks extend bull trends as global yields fall

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments US Retail Sales data came in at 1.7% in October, its biggest gain since March, whilst September data was also revised higher. US Industrial Production for October also beat estimates. This has sustained the “risk on” theme, despite headwinds of higher inflation and rising COVID-19 rates in Europe. The high COVID-19 rates … Continued

Intermediate

Inflation worries from high US CPI data, sees bond yields higher and stocks dip and bounce

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event last week was the US CPI data on Wednesday, which came in much higher than expected at 6.2% year-over-year, its highest level since 1990. This fuelled ongoing, underlying inflation concerns, seeing global stock indices setback (then bounce), whilst global bonds pushed to higher yields. Tesla saw a steep decline … Continued

Intermediate

Broad US Dollar strength

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast)  Euro breaks down (EURUSD forecast)  Partial profits in order on the Aussie  (AUDUSD forecast) 

Intermediate

Dovish Fed and strong US Jobs report send stocks even higher

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on Wednesday and as expected announced the start of tapering their monthly bond purchases by USD 15 billion later in November and December. However, the FOMC statement again highlighted an expectation for inflation to moderate and signalled no rush to tighten monetary policy. Markets … Continued

Intermediate

Risk on theme, US Dollar gaining too

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The busiest week of the US earnings season saw mixed earnings from Big Tech, with positives from Facebook, Microsoft and Google, and a positive announcement for Tesla, but significant misses from Apple, and Amazon. Further progress was seen on Biden’s proposed social infrastructure bill Despite losses after the Apple and Amazon releases, … Continued

Intermediate

Positive US Dollar signals

Major positive on the US Dollar Index, but needs confirmation (DXY forecast)  Negative on Euro-US Dollar (again, needing confirmation, EURUSD forecast) 

Intermediate

US averages hit record peaks, despite higher US (and global) yields

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Earnings season continued in the US last week, with positive earnings surprises across sectors, reinforcing solid results from the financial sector the prior week. But Snapchat parent Snap did disappoint on Friday, dragging the tech sector and Nasdaq lower to end the week. Fiscal stimulus hopes also helped the “risk on” theme … Continued

Intermediate

Euro Futures fail at key resistance

Negatives appear on Cable (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie and Kiwi also post negatives  (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) US Dollar-Yen uptrend ends  (USDJPY forecast)

Intermediate

Stock averages surge with strong earnings, in return to “risk on”

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Although the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday did indicate that bond purchase tapering is likely to begin before the end of 2021, the minutes also revealed that Fed officials are currently looking to keep interest rates at or near zero for the next couple of years. Data has suggested that both supply … Continued

Intermediate

Mixed signals again from the US Dollar

US Dollar Index remains trapped (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar posts rare positive pattern (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen accelerates up (USDJPY forecast)

Intermediate

Equities rebound as “risk on” theme restarts; Oil surges to $80

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Positive soundings on the US debt ceiling talks have helped riskier assets (such as stocks/ equities) in early October. The “risk off” theme that struck global financial markets in September has started to reverse back to a “risk on” theme, despite the extension to higher yields across global bond markets (led by … Continued

Intermediate

Forex markets mark time through US Jobs report

US Dollar Index goes sideways (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar has major support below (EURUSD forecast) US Dollar-Yen breaks up (USDJPY forecast) Positive appears on Euro-Pound ahead of major support (EURGBP forecast)

Intermediate

“Risk off” moves in equities resume, US Dollar strengthens

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The “risk off” theme that had struck global financial markets earlier in September resumed into month-end as inflation concerns returned, alongside higher yield pressures. Global stock indices reversed previous recovery rebounds, looking technically vulnerable. Debt ceiling and stimulus uncertainty are also weighing on riskier assets. Although the federal government passed a short-term … Continued

Intermediate

Dollar Stalls

The US Dollar Index stalled in a major resistance zone and posts negative meaning profits taken on long positions.  US Dollar-Yen posts false breakout up and builds reversal

Intermediate

“Risk off” moves in stocks reversed, US Dollar stays strong

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The “risk off” mode that has gripped global financial markets in September due to growth and inflation concerns was intensified early last week with Evergrande contagion worries. However, these contagions fears have eased through the week, as have the growth and inflation worries, which have seen global stock indices post robust recovery … Continued

Intermediate

Key Forex technical levels in focus

Aussie holds support  (AUDUSD forecast) A negative on USD-CAD  (USDCAD forecast) A major “Bear Trap” lies below on the Euro-Dollar (EURUSD forecast)

Intermediate

Growth and inflation worries extend “risk off” moves

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Ongoing growth and inflation concerns have left global financial markets in “risk off” mode, and still vulnerable to further erratic, “risk off” moves. Growth concerns have been sparked by three main factors: ongoing supply chain worries fuelling inflation fears Inflation worries putting the spotlight on Central Banks and in particular the Fed … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar shows broad strength

US Dollar Index breaks up (DXY forecast)  Euro breaks down, but futures has a major support nearby  (EURUSD forecast)  Aussie drifts down  (AUDUSD forecast)  Dollar-CAD breaks up  (USDCAD forecast) 

Intermediate

Delta variant and supply chain concerns spark “risk off” moves

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The ongoing global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant and the concerns regarding the new Mu variant, have impacted on growth expectations. In addition, ongoing supply chain worries have continued to fuel inflation fears and accentuate growth concerns. These factors leave global financial markets vulnerable to erratic, “risk off” moves. On Thursday … Continued

Intermediate

Equities stay strong, despite disappointing US Employment report

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the August US Employment report on Friday, which was disappointing, the headline Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data missed expectations, posting at 235K, with 750K expected. Prior monthly gains were revised higher though, whilst the Unemployment Rate fell to a pandemic-era low at 5.2%. Global Purchasing Managers … Continued

Intermediate

Jackson Hole has muted impact as stocks grind higher

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout economic event last week was the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, but it ended up as a non-event, as Fed Chair Powell did not signal anything different than previously communicated with respect to removing policy accommodation. The chaos, unrest and terrorist activity in Afghanistan has had muted impact on global … Continued

Beginner

Fed taper talk sees stocks plunge and bounce, US Dollar gains

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event last week was the Fed Minutes which showed increasing talk of tapering Bond purchases later this year. The data even last week were the US Retail Sales numbers which fell 1.1% in July (though June data was revised higher). Chinese stocks remain under pressures with the ongoing regulatory clampdown … Continued

Beginner

European stock averages lead global indices higher

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event in a light data week was the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with the ex-Food & Energy number coming in at 0.3%, below consensus estimates. On the fiscal side, the US Senate passed the infrastructure spending bill, approximately USD 1 trillion with about USD 560 billion of new … Continued

Expert

Major Negative on US Dollar Index

Negative USD signal (DXY forecast) Positive on Euro (EURUSD forecast) Pound holds support (GBPUSD forecast) So does Euro-Pound (EURGBP forecast)

Beginner

Global stocks rally on strong US Employment report

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The standout event in the week was Friday’s strong US Employment report, with 943K jobs added in June, notably above consensus estimates. Thursday saw the Bank of England Meeting and a slightly more hawkish tone stating that “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary”. … Continued

Beginner

Chinese stocks plunge, a “dovish” Fed and an Amazon sell off, but still a “risk on” mode

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A regulatory crackdown by Chinese authorities on large internet stocks saw Chinese share indices plunge and also saw some delayed and limited contagion effect on global stock averages. We got the Fed decision on Wednesday last week, with a slightly more hawkish tone in the statement, but a slightly more dovish tone … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar posts positive signals

Positive on the US Dollar (DXY forecast) Negative on Pound  (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie threatens to break down  (AUDUSD forecast)