Current Market Analysis

The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis. But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:

  • If to buy or sell an asset
  • At which levels to enter a trade
  • At which level to put the target to hopefully take profit on the trade
  • Or, if the analysis proves incorrect, when and where is the trade wrong and at which level to exit the trade.

In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.


Intermediate

The US Dollar in 2021

The dollar index (DXY) has had a good start the first week of this year, compared to the abominable 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has touched all financial markets and the mighty dollar felt the impact of it more than any other main currency. From my last article on March 12, 2020 DXY lost over 8%. … Continued

Intermediate

BTCUSD; A Parabolic Ride Fueled By FOMO

BTCUSD has been making new highs; again The time based technicals are mixed; they suggest more upside The U.S. level of debt : GDP is a driver,  as are the turbulent final days of Trump Many once sceptical voices are now becoming converts “…You gotta take it up a level and go up higher Put … Continued

Intermediate

WTI prices in 2020 and outlook for 2021

The year 2020 was a major crisis for oil prices as the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed demand with economies shutting down. According to IATA, passenger demand for air travel fell in February by 80% in Europe and USA and by 67% in Asia Pacific region. Prices collapsed in March to an unprecedented historic low. Oil practically … Continued

Intermediate

Bullish into 2021 with blue sweep confirmed

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The Democrats won both seats in the Georgia Senate runoff elections from Wednesday, confirming a “blue sweep”, the Democrats now taking control of both houses of Congress alongside the presidency. Then, Thursday saw unprecedented and shocking events in Washington DC, with Trump supporters storming the Capitol building. The fact that President Trump … Continued

Beginner

Global Markets Outlook 2021

Initial Parameters: Chart analysis is technical and taken from medium-term historical pattern Technical projections based on a twelve-month time horizon Targets set are based on the most recent, significant technical adjustment Analysis is based on Elliot Wave and Fibonacci techniques Technical analysis only guides; exogenous factors can shock any market Markets, being capricious, forecasts are … Continued

Intermediate

Taper Nervous Breakdown

The next time the Fed reduces its bond purchase program the market reaction should be more like a nervous breakdown rather than just a tantrum. First let’s review a bit of the historical histrionics surrounding the initial Taper Tantrum. Back in September 2012, the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program was running at the level of $85 … Continued

Intermediate

Markets end 2020 in “risk on” mode

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Trump finally signed the $900 billion COVID relief bill, a relief for markets. The EU-UK trade deal finally got done over the holiday season and was implemented at the end of 2020. Europe and the USA are still seeing aggressive increases in the numbers of cases, hospitalisations and deaths from COVID-19, as … Continued

Intermediate

Take the Under on 2021 GDP

Wall Street is universally bullish on the economy and stock market for 2021. For example, Morgan Stanley is on record predicting the U.S. economy will expand by 5.9% next year. The stock market has front-run this optimism. The most important valuation metric, total market cap to GDP, currently stands at an unprecedented 185%. This absurd … Continued

Intermediate

Land Mines

When the market cap of equities reaches 183% of GDP and gov’t bonds yield near 0%, or even less overseas, the notion that one can just buy and hold a balanced portfolio is extremely dangerous. The minefield is not packed with IEDs, it is actually replete with tactical nukes. One of those land mines would … Continued

Intermediate

Minor Correction Underway – Market Turning Points

Cycles:  Looking ahead!  90-yr cycle – last low: 1932. Next low: 2022 7-yr cycle – last low: 2016.  Next low: 2023 Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts SPX-IWM weekly charts During the past week, IWM outpaced SPX and  retained its current relative strength.  According to my interpretation, this is bullish for the market, suggesting that … Continued

Intermediate

New Short-term Target – Market Turning Points

Cycles:  Looking ahead!  90-yr cycle – last low: 1932. Next low: 2022 7-yr cycle – last low: 2016.  Next low: 2023 Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts SPX-IWM weekly charts Over the past few weeks, IWM has caught up with SPX by outperforming it.  There were signs this week that it may be slowing down … Continued

Intermediate

Euro and Pound bull breakouts (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts)

The US Dollar stays weak in the ongoing “risk on” environment. “Risk on” is being driven by Vaccine hopes Biden bounce Improving global data The Euro has pushed to a new multi-month peak versus the US Dollar (EURUSD forecast) The Pound is looking at progress at the EU-UK trade talks for further upside gains against … Continued

Intermediate

Bullish European stocks indices – DAX and EURO STOXX 50 forecast

A strong tone, with a dip and a rebound on Monday to end November for European (and global) equity averages. This “risk on” theme remains from vaccine hopes and the Biden bounce. Tuesday has already seen very strong Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, with further global data due today. European averages have managed … Continued

Intermediate

Bitcoin in 2020: Coming up to $20,000 again

This year has seen a massive resurgence of crypto optimists. The 3rd halving that happened in May propelled investors into the market and the COVID-19 pandemic trashing the economies only added more credit to crypto currencies as an alternative investment to FX. The end of the year became similar to 2017 scenario as everyone jumped … Continued

Intermediate

Markets keep the party going, despite surging US COVID-19 cases

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A fairly quiet week on the macroeconomic and geopolitical front, with the holiday shortened session in the US on Thursday and Friday because of Thanksgiving. The main development was on the US political side, as the Presidential transition of power has started properly, and although the Trump administration continues dispute the election … Continued

Expert

US Dollar stays weak as AUDUSD and USDCAD approach key levels

Dollar Index reaches final major support (DXY forecast) Euro breaks up (EURUSD forecast) Pound posts negative (GBPUSD forecast) Aussie reaches major monthly resistance (AUDUSD forecast) Dollar-CAD approaches its major support zone (USDCAD forecast)

Intermediate

NZD leads “risk” currencies higher – NZDUSD, AUDUSD, and USDCAD forecasts

A solid consolidation tone since midweek, but November strength seen across the major “commodity” or “risk” currencies (the New Zealand, Australian and Canadian Dollars) remains intact. The “risk on” price action is still being assisted by: Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca/ Oxford COVID-19 vaccine hopes Extension of the Biden bounce Mixed, but marginally positive economic … Continued

Intermediate

AUDJPY Is Looking Bullish – Elliott wave analysis

AUDJPY is trading bullish, up from March of 2020. We specifically see a completed five-wave cycle in wave A) at the 78.44 level, which was then followed by a probable completed corrective wave B), at the 73.12 level. Price did almost reach the area of a former wave 4, which can in many cases become … Continued

Intermediate

Euro and Pound stay bullish – EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts

A weaker US Dollar still the dominant Forex markets theme with the ongoing “risk on” environment. “Risk on” is being driven by the start of the US Presidency transition of power, the appointment of Janet Yellen as US Treasury Secretary, plus from the three vaccine announcements in November. The Euro has pushed above 1.1900 and … Continued

Intermediate

Evolution of the Fed

The evolution of humankind supposedly goes something like this: From a void and through a series of serendipitous happenstances arose; galaxies, the Earthly Primordial ooze, Bacteria, Monkeys, and eventually homo sapiens (wise man). The evolution of the Fed is deserving of equal derision, but with a much worse outcome. Back in 1913, the Federal Reserve … Continued

Intermediate

European stocks averages hit new cycle highs – DAX and EURO STOXX 50 forecast

A strong rally for European (and global) equity indices to start the week with more positive news from Astra Zeneca/ Oxford University on their COVID-19 vaccine trials. This “risk on” theme was also helped by Janet Yellen’s appointment as Treasury Secretary by US President-elect Joe Biden. Plus, the positive outlook for stock averages has been … Continued

Intermediate

“Risk on” mode reflected by “commodity currency” resilience

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The announcement last Monday from Moderna that their COVID-19 vaccine produced very positive trial results sustained the prior “risk on” theme, evident after the similar announcement from Pfizer the Monday before. This “risk on” tone was further reinforced by another positive statement from the Astra Zeneca/ Oxford University trial in the week. … Continued

Intermediate

“Risk currencies” consolidating, but still bullish – AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts

A consolidation theme over the past couple of days for the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars, the major “risk currencies” We see this as a digestion with the core “risk on” theme intact The “risk on” outlook driven by: The Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca/ Oxford COVID-19 vaccine announcements Congress looking to discuss the … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks dip but bull themes intact (S&P 500 and FTSE 100 forecast)

A dip across major global equity averages over the past 24 hours, but the underlying theme stays bullish from the very strong November rallies. The ongoing “risk on” theme has been driven by: The announcement from Moderna and Pfizer of very positive COVID-19 vaccine trial results Lockdown measures taking hold in Europe, with falling/ plateauing … Continued

Intermediate

Bullish Euro and Pound (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts)

A weaker US Dollar tone through November remains the dominant short-term theme for Forex markets in a “risk on” environment. This is being driven by both the Biden Presidential election victory in the US and the positive news from both Pfizer and Moderna from their respective COVID-19 vaccine trials The Euro has rejected recent weakness … Continued

Intermediate

European share indices stay strong (DAX and EURO STOXX 50 forecast)

A solid rally for European (and global) chare markets to begin the week with news from Moderna that their COVID-19 vaccine trials had been extremely successful with a 95% success rate This on the back of similar results last week from Pfizer for their vaccine European stock indices were higher Monday with this news, though … Continued

Intermediate

Shares surge again as COVID vaccine cheer builds on Biden bounce

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The announcement last Monday from Pfizer that their COVID-19 vaccine had produced extremely positive trial results and is at a late stage of development saw the “risk on” theme reinforced. Value and “old economy” stocks surged higher on anticipation of a broad economic recovery, whilst “new era” tech stocks underperformed. This was … Continued

Expert

Mixed signals from the US Dollar in “risk on” environment

Positives on Dollar Index, but fails to develop – DXY forecast Euro fails at daily resistance – EURUSD forecast Yen stops at its daily resistance after buy signal and profit taking – USDJPY forecast Likewise on long Aussie and Kiwi positions – AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts US Dollar-CAD holds monthly support and rallies – USDCAD forecast

Intermediate

“Risk currencies” dip, but stay bullish (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)

A corrective setback for the major “risk currencies” from the middle of this week, for the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars. We see this as corrective in nature, with the underlying “risk on” theme intact, driven by: The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine announcement A Joe Biden victory An expected split Congress, the Republicans likely holding … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks strong, bull threats – S&P 500 and FTSE 100 forecast

Last week we headlined our report “Shares surge, looking for more” and the markets have certainly delivered more, lots more! The ongoing “risk on” theme has been driven by: The announcement from Pfizer of a very impressive 90% success rate for their CIOVID-19 vaccine Confirmation of a Joe Biden victory A probable split Congress, with … Continued

Intermediate

Pound bullish, with Euro positive (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts)

A broadly weaker US Dollar in the wake of Joe Biden US Presidential election victory and the positive news from the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trials This activity has seen a further move to a “risk on” theme and a move away from the “safe haven” currencies, the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar. The Euro … Continued

Intermediate

Bull surge for European stocks – DAX and EURO STOXX 50 forecast

A strong advance to start Monday with the declaration at the weekend of Joe Biden as President-elect. This saw global equity markets start the week on a very positive footing, with European averages gapping higher. Then, the breaking news from Pfizer that their COVID-19 vaccine trials had been extremely successful with a 90% success rate … Continued

Intermediate

Correction curtailed by Election – Market Turning Points

Cycles:  Looking ahead!  90-yr cycle – last low: 1932. Next low: 2022 7-yr cycle – last low: 2016.  Next low: 2023 New minor low about mid-November. Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts SPX-IWM weekly charts The forte of IWM as a leading indicator is to show relative weakness to SPX at the top of an … Continued

Intermediate

Shares surge as Biden is now President-elect

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The US election took centre stage on Tuesday and remained there all week and still now, with the Presidential vote extremely close. Joe Biden will be the next US President. But the Republicans look likely to hold the Senate, meaning a likely mixed government. The threat of a difficult transition of power … Continued

Intermediate

Money To Be Made Down Copperhead Road

Copper has been moving higher since November 1 The time based technicals are bright green once past Monday November 9 The U.S. political scene favours a softer Dollar Look for prices to test U.S. Dollars 3.36/lb as a first staging post “…You’d better stay away from Copperhead Road…” (“Copperhead Road” Steve Earle ) There may … Continued

Expert

US Dollar bear signals across the Forex markets

US Dollar Index posts negative and targets 91.76 weekly support (DXY forecast) DXY major level lies below at 91.06 (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar posts positive and closes at final resistance, to the pip (EURUSD forecast) Aussie creates positive signal from within weekly support zone (AUDUSD forecast)

Intermediate

“Risk currencies” surge – AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts

An aggressive advance has been seen across the major “risk currencies” (Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars) since the US election results started to come in. You can learn more about “risk currencies” in our report on “Which Forex markets and currencies should I trade?” This has been a reaction to a global shift to … Continued

Intermediate

Shares surge, looking for more – S&P 500 and FTSE 100 forecast

Only last week we headlined our report “Shares plunge, more to come”. What a difference a week can make in trading! Despite stock markets plunging lower at the end of October, a strong recovery rally at the start of this week was extended on Wednesday as the partial results came in from the US presidential … Continued

Intermediate

Shares plunge as second wave grips Europe; US election risks!

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Surging cases of COVID-19 cases in Europe and the U.K, alongside growing hospitalisations and deaths have seen far more aggressive lockdown measures imposed across the continent. In addition, spiking cases across the US have increased concerns that national and global economic recoveries will quickly falter. The failure in the US to reach … Continued