Current Market Analysis

The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis.

But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:

  • If to buy or sell an asset
  • At which levels to enter a trade
  • At which level to put the target to hopefully take profit on the trade
  • Or, if the analysis proves incorrect, when and where is the trade wrong and at which level to exit the trade.

In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.


Intermediate

Next bull leg resuming for share indices (DAX forecast)

A firm rebound for global stock averages Wednesday, after the late June-early July surge higher, to try to reject the corrective setback tone so far this week. This has resumed the more bullish threat we highlighted last week as stock indices have begun to resolve the consolidation theme from earlier in June to a more … Continued

Intermediate

Pound shifts to more bullish (GBPUSD Forecast)

GBPUSD day trade outlook: Intermediate-term shift to bullish and upside risks  A strong advance Tuesday through key 1.2542 resistance for an intermediate-term shift from neutral to bullish, to build on the strong, very early July rally above 1.2510 resistance and to now also overcome the 1.2580 level to 1.2592, to keep the risk to the upside into Wednesday.  Day trade setup We see an … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks averages sustain bull threats (S&P 500 forecast)

In Friday’s publication we highlighted the more bullish threat for the German benchmark stock index future, the DAX forecast. The gains so far this week by share indices globally have reinforced the surge higher last Thursday, after the far better than expected US Employment report for June, which produced bullish breakout attempts from multi-week range … Continued

Intermediate

Elliott Wave Analysis: EUR/GBP In Bearish Reversal

Hello traders, EURGBP started firmly dropping from the 0.918 level (also level of a Fib. ratio of 61.8), giving us first signs of a possibly completed A-B-C move in a higher degree wave B) correction. We are now observing a minimum three-wave decline in play, so be aware of possible corrections/setbacks within the decline (first … Continued

Beginner

“Risk on” resumes! Data wins over virus concerns

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial markets have started to resolve the indecisive theme that has been evident from the middle of June into more of a “risk on” bias to start July. Markets have been caught between two competing forces; increasingly positive economic data compared to consensus and the rise in COVID-19 cases (particularly in … Continued

Intermediate

Quiet conditions in Forex

Positives appear on Aussie and Kiwi (AUDUSD and NZDUSD) Whilst Euro-Pound posts a major negative (EURGBP)

Intermediate

Stocks averages signal bull trend threat (DAX forecast)

A surge higher for global stock averages on Thursday to start to resolve the indecisive tone across indices from the past 2-3 weeks to a more bullish outcome. This was driven by a far better than expected US Employment report for June, with the belief in a strong re-opening of the global economy outweighing the … Continued

Intermediate

Euro still exposed to renewed weakness – EURUSD forecast

The Euro versus US Dollar forex rate, EURUSD has been in an  erratic, but we would argue still negative consolidation range since our last report. This leaves the threat for further EURUSD losses into today, this week and early July. EURUSD day trade outlook: Further consolidation, bias stays lower to key 1.1166 Day trade update and … Continued

Intermediate

A bigger top still forming for stocks averages – FTSE forecast

An indecisive tone across global stock averages over the past 2-3 weeks. This has been as two competing influences have impacted markets; the belief in a strong re-opening of the global economy and ensuing demand for riskier assets versus the rise in new COVID-19 cases (particularly in the southern US states). Here we look at … Continued

Intermediate

These S&P Relative Developments Reinforce A Risk-Off Restoration

A great deal is going on in the macro department and this can make it difficult to understand where risk is flowing in broader market as well as the G-10 FX space. A constant back-and-forth between virus related risks and U.S.-China tensions is continuously squeezing equity rallies which has somewhat seeped into G-10 FX risk … Continued

Intermediate

Cable still more negative – GBPUSD Forecast

Ongoing Brexit trade deal concerns have kept negative pressures on the Pound (GBP). The US Dollar retains a safe haven bid, in the light of worries regarding the rise in COVID-19 cases in many southern US states, and also of new pockets of breakout globally This reinforces the negative GBPUSD forecast we published last Wednesday … Continued

Intermediate

EURGBP Midpoint Breakthrough Threatens Mar-Apr Downtrend Structure

Regional cross EUR/GBP has widened its bullish management, infringing a bear Cloud Top and the Mar-Apr correction midpoint at 0.9085, to shift the attention to the vital 61.8% fib @ 0.9183; So far, mkt has surged 77pips, breaching its 70pip 10-day ATR value which could imply that prices have completed their sharp leg higher today … Continued

Intermediate

NASDAQ 100: Potential tech bubble burst incoming

From the last week’s analysis, we looked at the historic analysis of the NASDAQ 100 applying Elliott Waves. The chart above shows that we are waiting for the end of Expanded Flat wave (b). It seemed that the next burst of the tech bubble was coming soon. Now as Friday 26th closed, it is already … Continued

Intermediate

Is the bear market rally top in? US COVID-19 cases weigh on stocks

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Global financial markets continued the indecisive tone seen through mid-June into the end of the month, which has been in relation to competing forces; positive economic data/ strong retail demand/ support from the authorities on the one hand and the rise in COVID-19 cases on the other. The strong rally from mid-May … Continued

Intermediate

Airbus… Not Taking Off

Despite Airbus saying carriers are still paying, this is legacy payments pre COVID-19 Market sentiment is bearish as cash generation is deemed hard The top line will fall by 30% when we look at Q4 2020 versus Q4 2019 The recent price level is just a staging post ahead of a new leg lower. Airbus … Continued

Intermediate

GBPNZD and GBPAUD Still Bearish – Elliott wave analysis

GBPNZD can be trading in a big, bearish movement, down from March high. We see price in a third leg of a bigger decline, where price is unfolding a wave iv correction. Wave iv is a pause within the trend and can look for resistance/bearish turn at the 1.96/1.97 zone, where former swing high of … Continued

Intermediate

Euro looks very vulnerable again (EURUSD Forecast)

EURUSD day trade outlook: A roll back lower, still negative Day trade update and view A Thursday probe lower below 1.1231 to reinforce Wednesday’s roll back lower, to reject the Tuesday’s rebound that was capped by the solid 1.1353/79 resistance barriers. Whilst below 1.1281/85 we see negative pressures from the mid-June push below the 1.1211 swing low and 1.1193/82 … Continued

Intermediate

Is a bigger top going in for stocks? – DAX forecast

A meaningful selloff for global share averages over the past 24 hours as global stock averages have reacted to the rise in significant coronavirus cases in some US states, alongside a new outbreak in Australia alongside ongoing outbreaks in Japan, China and Germany. This has weighed on risk assets, already damaged by the mid-June selloffs … Continued

Intermediate

Embracing The Circular Economy

The circular economy is built on sustainability The aim is to design waste out of the system It eliminates the impact of negative externalities It drives energy efficiency and security New Times, New Challenges COVID-19 has destabilised both national economies and indeed the global economy. Even as societies and businesses take steps to reopen, the … Continued

Intermediate

BCHUSD Can See One More Leg Lower, Before A Recovery – Elliott wave

BITCOIN CASH is moving sideways since March-April, exactly after we noticed a five-wave rally into a wave A/1 from the lows. After every five waves, we expect to see a three-wave a-b-c pullback in wave B/2, which seems to be still in progress. We are currently tracking a big bearish triangle formation in wave »b« … Continued

Intermediate

NASDAQ 100: Will the bubble burst again?

With tech companies doing even better thanks to the lockdown, as more people were forced to stay at home and rely on online purchases and services. NASDAQ keeps pushing higher despite other indices struggling to reach their highs again. Now let us looks at the technical analysis. 200SMA on a weekly chart is always a … Continued

Intermediate

Pound versus US Dollar threat stays lower, just – GBPUSD Forecast

GBPUSD day trade outlook: A negative bias, despite a rebound A Tuesday rally to build on Monday’s rebound but still just capped by 1.2549 resistance at 1.2542 and whilst these barriers we hang onto negative pressures from last week’s plunge below 1.2454 and the up trend line from mid-May, plus from the mid-June spike through … Continued

Intermediate

Shares post erratic bounce, but risks stay lower – S&P 500 Forecast

A rebound from early weakness by global stock averages to start this week. However, global stock averages remain damaged by the mid-June selloffs after the subdued outlook for the US economy from the Fed. Plus, the rise in coronavirus cases in some US states, alongside new outbreaks in China and Germany have weighed on risk … Continued

Intermediate

Intractable Inflation

The Fed mistakenly believes it can control the rate of inflation with relative ease. While it believes it is far easier to fight a rising rate of inflation than deflation, it is still completely convinced the puppet strings of extant price levels rest firmly in its hands. To start with, the academics that sit on … Continued

Expert

Dollar stays strong

Dollar Index breaks up (DXY) Euro and Pound breakdown with support distant (EURUSD and GBPUSD)

Intermediate

Hesitant: Caught between FOMO rally and second wave worries

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The strong “risk on” phase from mid-May into early June has stalled, and although last week saw a bounce it also produced another stall, to leave a hesitant more cautious tone across global financial markets into latter June. The Federal Reserve in the US has given further support to credit markets over … Continued

Intermediate

Pound lower, pre and post Bank of England (GBPUSD Forecast)

The Pound saw a notable selloff against most currencies even before the Bank of England’s (BoE’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announcement on Thursday. Despite the BoE being very slightly on the hawkish end of the spectrum compared to market expectations, the subsequent Pound bounce against the US Dollar (GBPUSD) was minor and short-lived. Furthermore, ongoing … Continued

Intermediate

Share indices cautious, but vulnerable – DAX Forecast

A consolidation for global stock averages since the rebound to begin this week. Markets are caught between the positive tone from the May-June upside extensions and the negative tone from the selloffs from last week, driven by downbeat outlook for the US economy from the Fed PLUS by the rise in coronavirus cases in some … Continued

Beginner

BoE Expected To Boost Asset Purchases

As the UK starts to emerge from the its Covid-19 lockdown, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to provide further assistance and support for the economy by ensuring maximum accommodation remains in place. Analysts expect the MPC to leave its main interest rate at 0.10pct while the policymakers expand the quantitative easing … Continued

Intermediate

Euro topping pattern leaves bias lower – EURUSD Forecast

Concerns regarding fresh outbreaks and a possible second wave of the COVID-19 coronavirus globally have seen Forex markets stay in more of a “risk off” phase since the middle of last week. This is alongside a more negative risk outlook since last Wednesday’s Fed meeting, in which their assessment for the US economy was more … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks rebound but bias stays lower – S&P 500 Forecast

A rebound effort for global stock averages to start this week after early weakness, driven back higher by the Fed announcement of the start of their corporate bond buying programme. However, global share indices have been damaged by the selloff from last week after the downbeat outlook for the US economy from the Fed and … Continued

Intermediate

Gold…A Market Marked by Time & Temperament

Gold sentiment is evenly divided Market sentiment is short-term bearish…giving way to a bullish disposition The U.S. Fed has painted a poor economic outlook; soft rates near zero till Q4 2022 Europe looks to be in a deeper economic dislocation than the U.S., so gold trumps $ and € The are many great debates in … Continued

Intermediate

Risk rallies questioned – Macrowatch

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The strong “risk on” phase from mid-May into early June, stalled last week after Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and press conference, in which they highlighted commitment to at or near zero interest rates into 2022, BUT also highlighted concerns about the deeper impacts of the economic lockdowns in the … Continued

Intermediate

A Return to Sanity – Market Turning Points

Important Cycles Did the 4.5-year cycle bottom in March instead of waiting for its ideal low point in July?  This is a possibility according to a Hurst analyst.  Perhaps we should not be too eager to call for an early low in the 4.5-year cycle.  Of course, the 40-wk cycle is also due in mid-July, … Continued

Intermediate

US Dollar rebounds, looking firmer

Fresh positive on the US Dollar Index with major zone of support just below (DXY forecast) Euro holds above critical daily support (EURUSD forecast) Big negatives on Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD forecast)

Intermediate

Stocks plunge for deeper correction risks – FTSE 100 Forecast

A more aggressively negative theme for risk assets over the past 24-36 hours as markets have reacted to a downbeat outlook for the US economy from the Fed on Wednesday. This, alongside increases in the numbers of deaths and cases for the COVID-19 coronavirus is some US States has seen the major global chare indices … Continued

Intermediate

EURNZD and EURGBP Intra-day Updates – Elliott wave

EURNZD is usually a perfect indicator for risk-on or risk-off sentiment. Currently it’s coming nicely higher as we expected two days back, ideally within wave »c« or »iii«, while stocks are in the sharp fall. So, if it stops here around 1.76 area and turns sharply down, then stocks would probably see a recovery and … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks wobble, correction risks now lower – DAX Forecast

A more negative tone for riskier assets over the past 24 hours as markets have reacted to a more sombre tone on the future for the US economy from the Fed (despite committing to likely keeping rates near zero into 2022). The major global stock averages had already dipped lower on Tuesday and the subsequent … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks stay resilient in consolidation; aim higher (S&P 500 Forecast)

A resilient and sideways theme this week so far for the major global stock averages, with markets dipping and bouncing Tuesday. This sustains the underlying “risk on” phase from May, that has extended into early June. Here we look at the futures contract for the US benchmark share index, the S&P 500 forecast for today … Continued

Intermediate

What Drives The Gold Price?

The sad truth is that few people really know very much about gold, especially when it comes to investing in the metal. They don’t understand what makes it so valuable and unique, and they know even less what moves its price. Since I don’t want to spend an hour on why it is so precious, … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays firm – GBPUSD Forecast

The US Dollar remains broadly weak, as the “risk on” phase that extended into early June has continued this week, with the US currency still seen as a safe haven. Despite concerns regarding a lack of progress in EU/ UK trade talks, the Pound has managed to advance against the greenback. Here we look at … Continued

Intermediate

EURJPY weekly trend analysis

Weekly outlook EURJPY retested the broken uptrend line on a weekly chart again on Friday, also perfect test and bounce of the line and 200SMA. Today JPY is strong, gaining back some of the ground lost on Friday. The uptrend line was confirmed multiple times and retested before, showing how strong and valid it still … Continued

Intermediate

V-shape stock rally extends. Is the global economy following?

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The strong “risk on” phase that resurfaced from mid-May into the end of last month has been further reinforced in early June, driven by further positive macroeconomic data and fiscal and monetary policy stimulus announcements from Europe, alongside geopolitical developments. Better than expected economic data in early June is now pointing to … Continued

Intermediate

Dollar bounce

Positive appears on Dollar Index, signalling the end of the downtrend – DXY Euro posts negative – EURUSD Aussie and Pound remain strong – AUDUSD and GBPUSD

Intermediate

Euro surges after ECB PEPP expansion (EURUSD Forecast)

The “risk on” theme that has extended into early June has kept the safe haven US Dollar in a weakened position, sending EURUSD higher since latter May. The acceleration higher over the past 24 hours was driven by the European Central Bank (ECB) confirming larger than expected increase of EUR600bln for its Pandemic Emergency Purchasing … Continued

ECB’s Lagarde Goes Big, Adds EUR600bln To PEPP

ECB’s Lagarde overdelivered today as the central bank announced a further expansion of its Pandemic Emergency Purchasing Programme; adding EUR600bln more asset buys until at least June 2021. Read more here.