Current Market Analysis

The analysis of markets is a critical part of the trading decisions of any trader or investor. The individual trader or trading group may have a preference for: Macroeconomic Analysis, Microeconomics Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Behavioural Analysis, Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis. But whichever approach is employed, it is through this analysis that the trader decides:

  • If to buy or sell an asset
  • At which levels to enter a trade
  • At which level to put the target to hopefully take profit on the trade
  • Or, if the analysis proves incorrect, when and where is the trade wrong and at which level to exit the trade.

In this section we provide daily, real time market views including currency pairs forecasts, primarily through the approach of Technical Analysis, but also by utilising other approaches to market analysis. Many of our analyses also contains a video explaining the analyses. Click here for all video analyses and here for all forex news.


Intermediate

S&P 500 rebound, bigger bear threat eased, for now – S&P 500 forecast

A rebound for global equity markets since last Friday and into late September. This has eased the bigger picture bearish pressures from the September selloffs. Modest setbacks were seen Tuesday, however, and also overnight in the wake of the US Presidential debate (which again raised concerns about the possible transfer of power). Here we view … Continued

Intermediate

Pound risk flips higher, for now – GBPUSD forecast

A more positive tone for the Pound to start this week, for now rejecting the more negative tone we highlighted in our report here last week. The broader “risk off” theme has eased as global stock indices have rebounded since Friday which has seen a slight weakening of the US Dollar. The Pound also benefited … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD Breaking The Channel

EURUSD Spot has broken below the  50-day moving average Market may see short-term Euro buying, this will not last Neither the U.S. nor Eurozone economy are in rude health No ECB support for the Euro as the region slipped into deflation during August EURUSD Spot ventured below the 50-day moving average (50dma) on September 22 … Continued

Expert

US Dollar strength fully resumes

Dollar Index reaches major upside target and is at a pivotal point (DXY forecast) Euro-Dollar futures has major support close (EURUSD forecast) Aussie breaks key support  (AUDUSD forecast) Kiwi posts major negative (NZDUSD forecast) USD-Loonie breaks up (USDCAD forecast)

Intermediate

Stocks stay weak, with Europe seeing record COVID-19 cases

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Another week of hesitant equity markets, with early weakness, then indecision and finally an end of week rebound, but which failed to have any real positive impact. This comes in the wake of growing COVID-19 cases across Europe and the U.K., with many countries experiencing record daily and weekly numbers of new … Continued

Intermediate

Euro stays vulnerable to a deeper setback – EURUSD forecast

A still negative EURUSD tone into latter September having confirmed a Head & Shoulders top pattern (see more details and chart below). US Dollar strength has been a key theme from mid-September and has accelerated this week as a global “risk off” theme takes hold, with global equity indices lower and looking weak. This global … Continued

Intermediate

S&P 500 poised for bigger bear signal (S&P 500 forecast)

A further plunge in global equity markets this week as we highlighted on Tuesday with our article on the DAX here. After Monday’s plunge and then a bounce Tuesday, the “risk off” theme has fully resumed through midweek. This is being driven by a combination of: Surging European and UK COVID-19 cases New lockdown/ restriction … Continued

Intermediate

Pound bear trend extends – GBPUSD forecast

The negative theme for the Pound Sterling that we highlighted here last week has fully resumed this week. With regards to the GBPUSD forex rate, the weakness has more notably been driven by a stronger US Dollar, with a “risk off” theme developing again. This “risk off” theme has resumed as global stock indices have … Continued

Intermediate

DAX bear threat – DAX forecast

A plunge in global equity markets to start this week after a weakened close last week has seen stock indices wipe out important support levels already. European equity averages are starting to play catch up with their US counterparts, having held in previously with Euro (EURUSD) weakness. Here we look at the German benchmark average, … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks looking vulnerable as European COVID-19 cases surge

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A week of wavering equity markets, with rebounds falling short of making more positive signals, whilst Friday’s losses highlighted ongoing vulnerability, as has been seen through September. On Wednesday we got the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision and statement, which highlighted the “lower for longer” theme as the market … Continued

Intermediate

Near-term Objective Reached – Market Turning Points

P&F:  Short-term projection: 3300-3260 – Objective reached on 9/18 with SPX 3292 intra-day low. Cycles:  Looking ahead!  90-yr cycle – last low: 1932. Next low: 2022 7-yr cycle – last low: 2016.  Next low: 2023 20-td – 9/17 – bottomed on 9/18 Nest of short-term cycle lows on about 10/15-20 Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of … Continued

Intermediate

Euro aiming back up at 1.20 (EURUSD forecast)

A more positive EURUSD tone again through mid-September (as we highlighted in our report last week), having probed down and rebounded from just below important 1.1754/53 support (to reject a possible Head & Shoulders top pattern). The subsequent bounce has reflected resurfacing US Dollar vulnerability since Wednesday’s Fed meeting (with a dovish tone from the … Continued

Intermediate

Pound stays negative despite rebound – GBPUSD forecast

The GBPUSD negative theme we highlighted here last week has been questioned by the rebound efforts this week. However, with regards to both the Internal Markets Bill and the trade negations with the EU we still see game theory, brinkmanship resuming. This could still leave the Pound vulnerable going forward. Here we look at GBPUSD … Continued

Intermediate

S&P 500 poised for bull signal into the Fed (S&P 500 forecast)

In a report last week we stated “S&P 500 rebound, looking to resume the party!” The party has not yet fully started again, but guests are turning up and the threat of the party ending have receded. The rebound efforts in the past week have eased the bearishness from the early September, tech driven rout. … Continued

Intermediate

Breakout Of A Triangle On USDMXN

Hello traders, In this analysis we will talk about a triangle pattern. Those who are familiar with them, will know that these are one of the most popular patterns by hundreds of traders. The reason why they are so interesting is because while they are unfolding, momentum is decreasing, volume is low, therefore everyone wants … Continued

Intermediate

Canadian Dollar trying a bull restart – USDCAD forecast

The US Dollar has renewed its slightly more negative theme, which has seen most major currencies advance already this week against the greenback. This has been in reaction to global equity markets trying to rebound, as the September tech rout has eased and stock indices have held support. In addition, the Canadian Dollar has tried … Continued

Intermediate

Overvalued Stocks Head into the Bunker

The overvaluation of stocks relative to the economy has placed them in such rarefied space that the market is subject to dramatic and sudden air pockets. Our Inflation Deflation and Economic Cycle model is built to identify both cyclical and secular bear markets and protect and profit from them. However, what it cannot do, nor … Continued

Intermediate

Gold Is Going To Trade Higher

Gold has been drifting sideways since early August Market is well supported at the 50-day moving average The market has a low degree of volatility There will be early weakness in the Spot price, that signals a buying opportunity Gold Spot has ventured toward the 50-day moving average (50dma) in recent days, as shown by … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks erratic, searching for direction; Pound plunges

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A solid start to last week for risk assets as European and Asian stocks staged rebounds with US markets closed for the Labour Day Holiday However, riskier assets turned south again Tuesday and traded heavy for much of last week (see the “Global financial market developments” section below for details. At the … Continued

Expert

Pound collapses!

Dollar Index fails to break up – DXY forecast Euro holds support – EURUSD forecast Pound collapses and breaks below weekly support – GBPUSD forecast EuroPound accelerates higher – EURGBP forecast

Intermediate

Euro rebound after ECB, bias stays higher (EURUSD forecast)

A more positive EURUSD tone into mid-September having held above notable above 1.1754/53 supports and then rebounded on Thursday through the ECB decision, statement and press conference. ECB President Lagarde said that the ECB does “not target the exchange rate”, which encouraged the Euro higher, after recent jawboning sae it drop from 1.2000. Although EURUSD dipped late Thursday … Continued

Beginner

Macro Watch: Bubble Trouble with Michael Pento

VIP Guest Interview with Michael Pento (of Pento Portfolio Strategies) In this in depth interview, Steve Miley and Michael Pento talk all things markets, looking at the potential bubbles in US (and global) stock markets and also in Bond markets They look at inflation risks, the threat for US and global asset prices and interest rates Could the US election be pin that pops … Continued

Intermediate

S&P 500 rebound, looking to resume the party! – S&P 500 forecast

On Monday in our weekly Macro Watch publication we posed the question “Stocks dip – a deeper correction or a buying opportunity?” having last week highlighting that “S&P 500 keeps the party going!” Well both were in fact somewhat correct, with a deeper correction lower on Tuesday (after the US Labour Day holiday Monday), then … Continued

Intermediate

Inflation by Fiat

The Fed has now officially changed its inflation target from 2%, to one that averages above 2% in order to compensate for the years where inflation was below its target. First off, the Fed has a horrific track record with meeting its first and primary mandate of stable prices. Then, in the wake of the … Continued

Intermediate

Pound shifts far more bearish – GBPUSD forecast

The GBPUSD positive theme we highlighted here a week ago has been rejected by the negative price action this week. Far more negative developments from EU/UK trade negotiation with more aggressive brinkmanship have weighed on the Pound against both the US Dollar and Euro. In addition, US Dollar strength in the wake of the US … Continued

Intermediate

Looking for a FTSE 100 rebound – FTSE forecasts

European equity indices posted solid rebounds on Monday on the US Labour Day holiday with US markets closed. The FTSE 100 produced a particularly strong advance, assisted by Pound (GBP) weakened against both the US Dollar and Euro (GBPUSD lower and EURGBP higher). The Pound Sterling weakness was driven by concerns regarding the EUR-UK trade … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks dip – a deeper correction or a buying opportunity?

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A strong start to last week for risk assets as Warren Buffet announced the purchase of Japanese trading companies, starting Asian stock higher for the week and the US stock market took the Apple and Tesla stock splits in its stride. Strong Manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday kept risky assets higher and … Continued

Intermediate

Mixed US Dollar signals

Dollar Index posts positive, but fails to break up (DXY forecast) Euro posts major negative but has not yet broken down  (EURUSD forecast) Aussie reaches major monthly upside target and reverses  (AUDUSD forecast)

Intermediate

Euro looks vulnerable to a further correction lower – EURUSD forecast

A more negative EURUSD tone for early September after a strong tone in late August and early September (primarily driven by a still broadly weak US Dollar). With EURUSD touching 1.20 earlier this week, ECB members have been trying to “jawbone” the Euro back lower. This has worked to an extent with a dip back … Continued

Intermediate

10 year US Yields- More Weakness?

The Treasury yields are seen in a corrective, sideways price action. It looks like a triangle that is a continuation pattern, so more weakness here means higher prices on the 10 year US notes, so at the same time there might be new support coming on metals. 1800 is nice level for XAUUSD while XAGUSD … Continued

Intermediate

S&P 500 keeps the party going!

Last week we looked at the S&P 500 cash and futures push above the February 202- peaks to a new record (plus through the psychological/ option target at 3400.0). Since then, the US equity indices have seen a relentless push higher with the S&P 500 keeping the party going marching through 3500 and now approaching … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD Top looks Compelling | Eyes on 21-EMA @ 1.1816

A top in EUR/USD is looking a lot more compelling now after a pathetic spike through 1.20 quickly fizzled out. Typically, the breach of a key psychological level which contains a wealth of option barriers and triggers is exaggerated, but with expectations of this break running high for weeks, mkts were able to hedge and … Continued

Intermediate

Pound aiming higher, dip presents buy opportunity – GBPUSD forecast

A positive theme has continued since we highlighted GBPUSD bullish threats here last week . This despite the still negative soundings from EU/UK trade negotiations. The US Dollar has renewed its more bearish theme, which has seen most major currencies benefit against the greenback. A dip over the past 24 hours, but we see this … Continued

Intermediate

DAX trying to rebound and resume bull forces – DAX forecast

Last week we highlighted upside risks for the DAX and despite subsequent erratic activity and setbacks, we maintain this view. The US equity averages remain very strong with global financial markets remaining in “risk on” mode. Although European equity averages are continuing to underperform their US counterparts, we look for them to try to play … Continued

Intermediate

Coffee Grinds Higher

Coffee has pushed higher so negating the March to late April decline Market sentiment is bullish at every time measure The market has a high degree of volatility There is a mild sentiment of being overbought, however, look to be contrarian Coffee has staged a break higher of 14.51% since June 23 when spot managed … Continued

Intermediate

Stocks surge, Dow erases 2020 losses

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments Last week began with a perceived “risk on” development with President Trump announcing the fast tracking of COVID-19 plasma treatment and also fast tracking the Astra Zeneca/ Oxford University vaccine trials. Also, early in the week it was announced that a call had taken place between U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin/ US … Continued

Expert

US Dollar looking vulnerable

Pound Breaks up (GBPUSD) Dollar-Yen close to breaking down (USDJPY) Aussie and Kiwi get close to major monthly upside targets (AUDUSD and NZDUSD) Euro-Pound breaks down (EURGBP)

Intermediate

Bullish trend resumption risks for the Euro (EURUSD forecast)

An erratic consolidation theme over the past 1-2 weeks for EURUSD since we published a bull view here in mid-August. US Dollar losses over the past 24 hours since Fed Chairman Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium have indicated potential for the US Dollar bear theme to resume. Powell’s comments have been seen … Continued

Intermediate

Cable (GBPUSD) bull threats – GBPUSD forecast

Last week we highlighted a GBPUSD buying opportunity and a positive theme has prevailed since then. This is despite the more negative tone coming from the EU/UK trade negotiations. The US Dollar has fallen into range environments against most major currencies over the past 1-2 weeks, but the speech from Jerome Powell at the Jackson … Continued

Intermediate

European share indices following the US higher – DAX forecast

Yesterday we highlighted the S&P 500 future hitting a new record high and through the psychological/option level at 3400. Despite European equity averages underperforming their US counterparts in August, they have tried to play catchup in the past week. The more positive tone for the European indices has been assisted by the fact that the … Continued

Intermediate

The Economy Needs More Than a Vaccine

The hype and hope being promulgated by Wall Street and D.C. is that the imminent and well-advertised approval of vaccines will bring the economy back to what they characterize as its pre-pandemic state of health. However, even if these prophylactics are very efficient in controlling the pandemic and lead the economy back to “normal”, the … Continued

Intermediate

S&P 500 future joins the cash index with surge to record high

Last week we highlighted that the S&P 500 cash index had hit a new record high on Tuesday 18th August and that he S&P 500 future was poised to test its all-time high at 3397.5 (from February 2020). The past 24-36 hours has seen a surge in the S&P 500 future through this high to … Continued

Intermediate

Continued Topping Behavior – Market Turning Points

P&F target for near-term top:  3365/3390 (projection met) Cycle cluster ahead:  45-td cycle ~8/18, 26-day ~8/25, 36-td ~8-31 Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts) SPX-TRAN daily charts:  I have sought to make clearer the divergences warning of a top between the TRAN and SPX by marking on the SPX chart with a red vertical line, … Continued

Intermediate

Fed Minutes leave markets mixed

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The US stock market “risk on” theme has extended into latter August, with the US benchmark average, the S&P 500 prodding to a new all-time high. Wednesday’s meeting minutes from the FOMC saw another downbeat assessment of the US economic recovery and notes of caution. Plus, the Fed also backed away from … Continued

Expert

Major reversal on Dollar Index (DXY)

Negative signals on the Euro and Pound (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts) Aussie and Kiwi remain in sideways phase (AUDUSD and NZDUSD forecasts) Euro-Pound approaches major support (EURGBP forecast)

Intermediate

Bulls taking care of silver

Hello traders, Silver started trading bullish in March of 2020, and as we see price started unfolding an impulse. An impulse is a five-wave pattern, that moves within the current trend. In our case, this means to the upside. We can see three legs of an impulse: 1, 2, and 3 as completed, so latest … Continued

Intermediate

European stocks poised to follow the US higher (DAX forecast)

In our article here last week we tried to spotlight European stock averages trying to play catch up won the upside with their US counterpart. The S&P 500 cash index made a new record high this week (with the future poised for a similar signal going into today), whilst the Nasdaq 100 continues its march … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD buying opportunity – GBPUSD forecast

Still a positive tone for GBPUSD despite a recent dip, as we had highlighted previously. The selloff in the past 24 hours has been driven by a “flight to quality” to the safe haven US Dollar, with the Fed Meeting Minutes highlighting FOMC concerns about the UIS economic recovery. Although this US Dollar rebound has … Continued

Intermediate

S&P 500 index hits all-time high, future poised for a similar signal

The S&P 500 cash index hit a new record high on Tuesday 18th August and the S&P 500 future is now poised to test its all-time high at 3397.5 (from February 2020). The broad “risk on” environment points the way still higher into today latter August. Here we spotlight the future on the US benchmark, … Continued