AUDUSD and NZDUSD stay weak (despite equity market rebounds)

  • May has been dominated by a broad shift across global financial assets to a “risk off” phase, with the major global stock markets and equity averages lower, Bond markets rallying to lower yields, Gold higher.
  • This environment has also seen safe haven currencies strengthening (the Japanese Yen), whilst “risk currencies’, like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars have weakened.
  • Despite recovery efforts by global stock markets this week, this has only seen a modest corrective weakening of the Yen (USDJPY modestly higher), whilst the “risk” or “commodity currencies” have stayed weak.
  • In today’s report we spotlight the downside risks for the AUDUSD and NZDUSD Forex rates.

AUDUSD bear trend further reinforced

Yet another push lower Thursday through .6912 to reinforce the selloff already this week through various supports, and although an erratic tone over the past 24 hours still sustaining downside pressures from the earlier May rebound failures from below key .7069 resistance (from .7048 and .7027), to keep risks lower for Friday.

The early February push .7073 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see a downside bias for .6880; break here   quickly aims .6870/67, possibly towards a key level at .6829.
  • But above .6937 targets .6959 and maybe aims for .6986.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6916.

  • Lower targets would be .6829 and .6738
  • What Changes This? Above .7069 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7206 is needed for a bull theme.

4 Hour AUD USD Chart

audusd chart

NZDUSD downside risks intact

An erratic consolidation Thursday but capped by initial .6591 resistance having probed at the down trend line from March, then prodding lower to sustain negative pressures from the earlier May plunge after the RBNZ rate cut, to match this low at .6524, leaving the bias lower Friday.

The April push below .6716 set an intermediate-term bear theme.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6524/19; break here aims for .6524/19, maybe .6500 and even .6471.
  • But above .6591 aims for .6630 and maybe targets .6653.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6347 and .6195

  • What Changes This? Above .6682 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .6783 is needed for a bull theme.

4 Hour NZD USD Chart

nzdusd chart

Comments on this analysis

Latest News

Gold Chart
Golden Breakout: Potential for 1,486 for spot gold

We upgrade our neutral conviction on GOLD, mentioned in our prior post, to buy. Yesterday saw a solid 1.3% rise in XAUUSD on the back of a weaker USD, Middle East tensions and Ray Dalio comments. The precious metal broke above key 1,438.63 resistance and a consolidation pattern. A close near the top reinforces bull … Continued

GBPUSD Daily Chart
Elliott wave Analysis: GBPUSD On A Bearish Ride

Hello fellow traders! GBPUSD is looking bearish and can now be unfolding final stages of a sub-wave 3) of blue wave 1. We are observing minor leg 5 of 3) in progress, with possible support, and a turn into a corrective wave 4) around the Fibonacci ratio of 261.8 (1.235/1.223 region). GBPUSD, Daily On the … Continued

Forex News Category
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like ’95 or ‘07?

You should completely understand that the market is dangerously overvalued and that global economic growth has slowed to a crawl along with S&P 500 earnings. However, you must also be wondering when the massive overhang of unprecedented debt levels, artificial market manipulations, and the anemic economy will finally shock Wall Street to a brutal reality. … Continued

Gold Futures
Gold Getting a Boost as Fed Expresses Concern

As the Fed indicate rate cuts are coming gold will keep rising over the summer  There is a disconnect between asset price inflation and the real economy  Earnings will be flat or disappointing and too much debt has little or negative yield  I last looked at Gold on May 26, 2019 when I called for … Continued

Forex Brokers in your location