US dollar weakness has emerged through early November, primarily driven by the erosion to US (and global) equity markets in reaction to both concerns regarding the US Presidential election and also a far from encouraging earning season.
Daily S&P 500 Future Chart
This has allowed for AUDUSD to push towards the top end of a range environment and threaten a more bullish shift.
For NZDUSD, this activity has questioned the intermediate-term bearish theme, with risk of a shift back to a neutral tone, even potentially bullish into November.
A solid consolidation tone Friday, to reinforce the strong rebound effort since last Tuesday (having defended support at .7754/52 at the end of October), to keep the bias to the upside Monday.
- We see an upside bias for .7697; break here aims through .7709, maybe up to .7735 and key .7760
- But below .7633 aims for .7608 and opens risk down to .7580.
The early September plunge below the .7489/86/84 support area produced a shift in the intermediate-term view from bullish to neutral.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7438 and .7760.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside:Above .7760 aims higher for .7835/50/78, .8000 and .8164/66.
- Downside:Below .7438 sees risk lower for .7284 and .7141.
Daily AUDUSD Chart
A firm consolidation Friday to reinforce the solid advance in early November and Thursday through .7311 and .7330 resistances, to leave the risks for still further gains into Monday.
Although, the previous Head and Shoulders pattern maintains an intermediate-term bearish theme, this is only whilst below .7370.
- We see an upside bias for .7350; break here aims for key .7370, maybe .7382 and .7413.
- But below .7274 opens risk down to .7212.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- Whilst below .7370 we see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6948.
- Below here targets .6800 and .6676/64.
What Changes This? Above .7370 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7485.