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Latest AUD USD Analysis and Forecast

US Dollar stays strong on higher relative yields; Australian Dollar weak with commodity prices consolidating  lower

  • The US Dollar rebounded after immediate weakness after the 7th March Fed Meeting
  • This strength resumed through March, but has seen more of a consolidation theme from late March into April 
  • This US Dollar strength has been assisted by US Treasuries move to higher yields, alongside US yield spread widening versus many other government bonds
  • The Australian Dollar is weak despite being a  "risk currency" and global equity markets retaining a "risk on" tone
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) retained a dovish tone in their April Meeting, despite a strong housing market 
  • This could encourage a further weakening of the Australian Dollar

Lacklustre bounce, looking for a deeper push lower

Day trade update and view

A modest bounce Monday after Friday's rebound failure from below our .7677/87 resistance area and still below the down trend line from latter February, sustaining negative pressures from the recent spike below .7597/91 supports to .7585, plus from the early April extension down to .7528 after plunging below notable .7560/59 supports, leaving a downside bias for Tuesday.

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for .7585 and .7528; a break here aims for .7510 and maybe towards the next key level at .7458.
  • But above .7677/87 aims for .7756 and maybe even towards .7804.

Intermediate-term outlook

The push below key .7721 support signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for .7560/54, .7458 and .7218.
  • What changes this? Above .7849 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend straight to an intermediate-term bull trend.

AUD USD Calendar

13/04/21 Chinese trade data; UK GDP, Manufacturing & Industrial Production; German ZEW Survey; US CPI

14/04/21 RBNZ interest rate decision and statement

15/04/21 Australian Employment report; German CPI; US Retail Sales

16/04/21 Chinese GDP, Retail Sales & Industrial Production; EU CPI

View Full Calendar

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