- A weaker US Dollar tone through November remains the dominant short-term theme for Forex markets in a “risk on” environment.
- This is being driven by both the Biden Presidential election victory in the US and the positive news from both Pfizer and Moderna from their respective COVID-19 vaccine trials
- The Euro has rejected recent weakness and resumed the broadly positive tone seen in early November, with EURUSD aiming higher into November.
- The Pound continues to strengthen with apparent positive progress rumours from EU-UK trade talks (alongside the negative US Dollar tone), with GBPUSD aiming higher in the short- and intermediate-term.
EURUSD day trade outlook: Bias higher with push above 1.1865/70 resistance area
A further rebound Tuesday as seen from late last week now above our flagged 1.1869/70 resistance area up to 1.1894, to reject the negative tone from last week’s setback through supports to 1.1744, to switch risks higher for Wednesday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 1.1894 and 1.1920; a break here maybe aims for 1.1966.
- But below 1.1797/93 opens risk down to 1.1744 and possibly 1.1709.
EURUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early November push above key 1.1881 resistance signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 1.2011, 1.2140 and 1.2556.
- What changes this? Below 1.1709 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend to neutral; through 1.1601 to an intermediate-term bear trend.
GBPUSD day trade outlook: A further rebound, bull tone
A further advance Tuesday as seen since late last week, now above 1.3243/53 resistances to stall at 1.3272, to resume upside forces from the earlier November rally above the key peaks at 1.3177 (to set an intermediate-term bull trend), to keep risks higher for Wednesday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 1.3272; a break here aims for 1.3313, maybe 1.3359.
- But below 1.3193 aims for 1.3150 and possibly opens risk down towards 1.3106/1.3092.
GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early November push above 1.3177 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 1.3359, 1.3486/1.3515 and maybe 1.3711.
- What changes this? Below 1.2854 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.