Latest EUR USD Analysis and Forecast

Aggressive bear extension, negative tone

Day trade update and view

An aggressive sell off on Thursday down through 1.1225/20 supports and the cycle low at 1.1185 to 1.1130xxxx, extending negative forces from the late January push down through key 1.1272/71 supports (for an intermediate-term bear shift), plus from the prior push down through 1.1313/11 supports, keeping risks lower for Friday.  

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1130 and 1.1102/01; a break here possibly aims for 1.1056, even 1.1000.
  • But above 1.1191 opens risk up to 1.1243  and possibly 1.1311.  

Intermediate-term outlook

The late January push below key 1.1272/7 supports signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.

Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 1.1185, 1.1000 and 1.0870.

What changes this? Above 1.1434 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend straight to an intermediate-term bull trend.

EUR USD Calendar

28/01/22 German GDP; US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)

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BUY - rate is expected to increase, i.e. the first currency gains value against the second currency.
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