Latest EUR USD Analysis and ForecastUpdated April 12th, 2021
US Dollar broadly firm on higher relative yields; Euro now positive with vaccine rollout accelerating and lockdown measures starting to ease
- The US Dollar rebounded after immediate weakness after the 7th March Fed Meeting
- This strength resumed through March, but has seen more of a consolidation theme from late March into April
- This US Dollar strength has been assisted by US Treasuries move to higher yields, alongside US yield spread widening versus many other government bonds
Euro is now more positive with the previously slow vaccine rollout improving and lockdown measures being eased in some nations
Solid consolidation sustains positive theme
Day trade update and view
A solid, sideways consolidation on Monday dip after Friday's rebound from above new, initial support at 1.1859, to reinforce the early April rally from 1.1736 to push above our 1.1895/1.1900 resistance area to 1.1927, to keep risks higher for Tuesday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 1.1927 and 1.1947/50 and maybe towards key 1.1989/1.2001; a break here maybe aims 1.2054.
- But below 1.1859 opens risk down to 1.1794 and possibly 1.1736.
The early March sell off signalled an intermediate-term shift to bear trend.
- Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to target 1.1799 and 1.1627.
- What changes this? Above 1.1989/1.2001 sets an intermediate-term bull trend.
EUR USD Calendar
13/04/21 Chinese trade data; UK GDP, Manufacturing & Industrial Production; German ZEW Survey; US CPI
14/04/21 RBNZ interest rate decision and statement
15/04/21 Australian Employment report; German CPI; US Retail Sales
16/04/21 Chinese GDP, Retail Sales & Industrial Production; EU CPIView Full Calendar
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