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Latest EUR USD Analysis and Forecast

Recovery stalling, bear forces intact

Day trade update and view

A Thursday rebound stall back from 1.1625, still capped by 1.1640/45 resistances, after Wednesday's push above resistances at 1.1587/95, but whilst below 1.1640/45 we see bear pressures from the early October plunge to another new 2021 low through 1.1561, plus from the sell off since the mid-September surrender of key 1.1781 support (for an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend), keeping risks lower for Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1522 and 1.1507; a break here maybe aims towards 1.1465, even 1.1423.
  • But above 1.1640/45 opens risk up to 1.1690 and possibly 1.1756.

Intermediate-term outlook

The September push below key 1.1781 support signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 1.1369 and maybe 1.1166.
  • What changes this? Above 1.1909 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend straight to an intermediate-term bull trend.

EUR USD Calendar

15/10/21 China Retail Sales; US Retail Sales

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BUY - rate is expected to increase, i.e. the first currency gains value against the second currency.
SELL - rate is expected to go down, i.e. the first currency is expected to lose value against the second currency.