Latest EUR USD Analysis and Forecast

US Dollar broadly firm on higher relative yields; Euro now positive with vaccine rollout accelerating and lockdown measures starting to ease 

  • The US Dollar rebounded after immediate weakness after the 7th March Fed Meeting
  • This strength resumed through March, but has seen more of a consolidation theme from late March into April 
  • This US Dollar strength has been assisted by US Treasuries move to higher yields, alongside US yield spread widening versus many other government bonds
  • Euro is now more positive with the previously slow vaccine rollout improving and lockdown measures being eased in some nations

Solid consolidation sustains positive theme  

Day trade update and view

A solid, sideways consolidation on Monday dip after Friday's rebound from above new, initial support at 1.1859, to reinforce the early April rally from 1.1736 to push above our 1.1895/1.1900 resistance area to 1.1927, to keep risks higher for Tuesday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1927 and 1.1947/50 and maybe towards key 1.1989/1.2001; a break here maybe aims 1.2054.
  • But below 1.1859 opens risk down to 1.1794 and possibly 1.1736.

Intermediate-term outlook

The early March sell off signalled an intermediate-term shift to bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to target 1.1799 and 1.1627.
  • What changes this? Above 1.1989/1.2001 sets an intermediate-term bull trend.

EUR USD Calendar

13/04/21 Chinese trade data; UK GDP, Manufacturing & Industrial Production; German ZEW Survey; US CPI

14/04/21 RBNZ interest rate decision and statement

15/04/21 Australian Employment report; German CPI; US Retail Sales

16/04/21 Chinese GDP, Retail Sales & Industrial Production; EU CPI

View Full Calendar

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