- This week’s “risk on” theme extended on Thursday, and despite an overnight dip in Asian stock indices into Friday, we still see an overall positive tone to global financial markets into the end of the week and month.
- In the Forex space, the US Dollar stays weak, still a safe haven during the current global health crisis, so looking vulnerable in the “risk on” environment.
- Furthermore, the “risk currencies” amongst the Majors, the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars have all sustained an underlying positive tone.
- Here we spotlight the positive technical outlook fr the Canadian Dollar, with a negative USDCAD forecast.
USDCAD day trade outlook: Negative and aiming lower
A negative Thursday consolidation, after Wednesday’s push into and rebound from within our 1.3726/04 support area from March (bouncing from 1.3718), but capped by 1.3849 initial resistance, to retain negative forces from Tuesday’s plunge through key 1.3846 support, to keep the risk back lower Friday.
- We see a downside bias for 1.3718/04; a break below here maybe aims for 1.3637.
- But above 1.3849 targets 1.3938, maybe even towards 1.4003.
USDCAD intermediate-term outlook
The April push below 1.3922 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
- Downside risks: We see downside risk for 1.3513 and 1.3198
- What changes this? Above 1.4349 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to an intermediate-term bull theme.
4 Hour USDCAD Chart