Latest USD CAD Analysis and ForecastUpdated April 12th, 2021
US Dollar strength on higher relative yields
- The US Dollar rebounded after immediate weakness after the 7th March Fed Meeting
- This strength resumed through March, but has seen more of a consolidation theme from late March into April
- This US Dollar strength has been assisted by US Treasuries move to higher yields, alongside US yield spread widening versus many other government bonds
- The Canadian Dollar has been slightly weaker since the mid-March correction lower in the Oil price
Consolidation, looking for a rebound
Day trade update and view
A Monday consolidation after Friday's corrective dip below our initial support at 1.2560 and to probe the March-April up trend line, but to hold above 1.2498 and whilst above here we still hold onto upside pressures from the early April rally above 1.2610 resistance and the latter March prod above 1.2620/25 resistances up to 1.2647, to keep the bias higher for Tuesday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 1.2611 and key 1.2647; a break here maybe aims for 1.2700/03.
- But below 1.2498 quickly targets 1.2457 and possibly opens risk down towards 1.2417.
- Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 1.2250, 1.2061 and 1.1919.
- What changes this? Above 1.2647 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend straight to an intermediate-term bull trend.
USD CAD Calendar
13/04/21 Chinese trade data; UK GDP, Manufacturing & Industrial Production; German ZEW Survey; US CPI
14/04/21 RBNZ interest rate decision and statement
15/04/21 Australian Employment report; German CPI; US Retail Sales
16/04/21 Chinese GDP, Retail Sales & Industrial Production; EU CPIView Full Calendar
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Other major currency pairs
BUY - rate is expected to increase, i.e. the first currency gains value against the second currency.
SELL - rate is expected to go down, i.e. the first currency is expected to lose value against the second currency.