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Latest USD CAD Analysis and Forecast

US Dollar strength on higher relative yields

  • The US Dollar rebounded after immediate weakness after the 7th March Fed Meeting
  • This strength resumed through March, but has seen more of a consolidation theme from late March into April 
  • This US Dollar strength has been assisted by US Treasuries move to higher yields, alongside US yield spread widening versus many other government bonds
  • The Canadian Dollar has been slightly weaker since the mid-March correction lower in the Oil price

Consolidation, looking for a rebound 

Day trade update and view

A Monday consolidation after Friday's corrective dip  below our initial support at 1.2560 and to probe the March-April up trend line, but to hold above 1.2498 and whilst above here we still hold onto upside pressures from the early April rally above 1.2610 resistance and the latter March prod above 1.2620/25 resistances up to 1.2647, to keep the bias higher for Tuesday.  

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for 1.2611 and key 1.2647; a break here maybe aims for 1.2700/03.
  • But below 1.2498 quickly targets 1.2457 and possibly opens risk down towards 1.2417.

Intermediate-term outlook

  • Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 1.2250, 1.2061 and 1.1919.
  • What changes this? Above 1.2647 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend straight to an intermediate-term bull trend.

USD CAD Calendar

13/04/21 Chinese trade data; UK GDP, Manufacturing & Industrial Production; German ZEW Survey; US CPI

14/04/21 RBNZ interest rate decision and statement

15/04/21 Australian Employment report; German CPI; US Retail Sales

16/04/21 Chinese GDP, Retail Sales & Industrial Production; EU CPI

View Full Calendar

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