Canadian Dollar trying to turn back positive – USDCAD forecast

Intermediate
  • The US Dollar has renewed its slightly more negative theme this week, which has seen most major currencies rally in late September and early October against the greenback.
  • This has been in reaction to global equity markets trying to rebound from late September towards more of a “risk on” phase.
  • A slight “risk off” shift has been seen this morning, however, as President Trump has confirmed he has tested positive for COVID-19.
  • However, we still see risks lower for USDCAD for today and into the second half of September.

USDCAD day trade outlook: Still negative

A Thursday prod lower and low-level consolidation after Wednesday sell-off below the 1.3321/12 support area, to further reject upside pressures from the latter September surge (to overcome various notable resistances), to keep the threat lower for Friday. 

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias through 1.3275 for 1.3237/26; a break here aims possibly towards 1.3168.
  • But above 1.3334 opens risk up to 1.3418/20 and possibly key 1.3460.

USDCAD intermediate-term outlook

The April push below 1.3922 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see downside risk for 1.2990/1.2948, 1.2799 and 1.2550.
  • What changes this? Above 1.3460 shifts the intermediate-term outlook to neutral and above 1.3715 to bullish.
8 Hour USDCAD Chart
8 Hour USDCAD Chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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