- The US Dollar has renewed its slightly more negative theme this week, which has seen most major currencies rally in late September and early October against the greenback.
- This has been in reaction to global equity markets trying to rebound from late September towards more of a “risk on” phase.
- A slight “risk off” shift has been seen this morning, however, as President Trump has confirmed he has tested positive for COVID-19.
- However, we still see risks lower for USDCAD for today and into the second half of September.
USDCAD day trade outlook: Still negative
A Thursday prod lower and low-level consolidation after Wednesday sell-off below the 1.3321/12 support area, to further reject upside pressures from the latter September surge (to overcome various notable resistances), to keep the threat lower for Friday.
Day trade setup
- We see a downside bias through 1.3275 for 1.3237/26; a break here aims possibly towards 1.3168.
- But above 1.3334 opens risk up to 1.3418/20 and possibly key 1.3460.
USDCAD intermediate-term outlook
The April push below 1.3922 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
- Downside risks: We see downside risk for 1.2990/1.2948, 1.2799 and 1.2550.
- What changes this? Above 1.3460 shifts the intermediate-term outlook to neutral and above 1.3715 to bullish.