- Last Monday 25th March we highlighted Euro vulnerability here previously driven lower by very weak German Purchasing Managers’ Index data.
- This weakness has continued in late March with dovish comments from European Central Bank members and the ongoing weakening of economic data across the Eurozone.
- Furthermore, the US Dollar has seen broader strength through latter March and into early April, despite a shift to a more “risk on” phase, with global equity markets setting a more positive tone.
- This combination of a weakening Euro and firming US$ leaves EURUSD risks to downside and aims at the 2019 low at 1.175 into early April, as we look at below.
EURUSD risks remain lower
A Monday failure back lower from within our 1.1247/61 resistance area (from 1.1250), to push below 1.1213/08 supports, sustaining bear pressures from the aggressive March selloffs down from 1.1448 and 1.1390, to keep risks lower for Tuesday.
The latter March surge post-Fed Meeting above 1.1420 set a broader range we see as 1.1509 to 1.1175, BUT with risks skewed towards an intermediate-term bearish shift through 1.1175.
- We see a downside bias through 1.1195; break here aims for key 1.1175 and maybe towards 1.1144.
- But above 1.1247/61 aims for 1.1286/95 and maybe 1.1332/41.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1509 to 1.1175.
- Upside Risks: Above 1.1509 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1570/1.1621, 1.1815/52 and 1.1996/1.2000.
- Downside Risks: Below 1.1175 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 1.0839.
4 Hour EURUSD Chart