- A move to higher yields for European Government Bonds given the tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has seen the Euro rally over the past 24 hours.
- In addition, we see a still vulnerable US Dollar, as the deteriorating US economic data in October has been reflected by a perception of a more dovish Fed, with expectations for another rate cut from the US before the end of the year.
- This has pushed EURUSD to the top of its recent range and sets risks higher for the EURUSD Forex rate in the very short-term.
EURUSD: Risks to the topside
A positive consolidation tone Wednesday after Tuesday’s setback held and rebounded exactly from our 1.0939 support, to hang onto upside forces from the early October advance above notable 1.0948 and 1.0967 resistances, to keep risks higher for Thursday.
The late August selloff through 1.1025 shifted the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.
- We see an upside bias for 1.1001; break here aims for 1.1024/26 and maybe 1.1082.
- But below 1.0939 opens risk down to 1.0909 and maybe 1.0878.
4 Hour EURUSD Chart