- The US Dollar stays weak in the ongoing “risk on” environment.
- “Risk on” is being driven by
- Vaccine hopes
- Biden bounce
- Improving global data
- The Euro has pushed to a new multi-month peak versus the US Dollar (EURUSD forecast)
- The Pound is looking at progress at the EU-UK trade talks for further upside gains against the USD (GBPUSD forecast)
EURUSD day trade outlook: Surge above key 1.2011 peak
A surging advance again Tuesday above the cycle high at 1.2011 and also 1.2043 and 1.2081 resistances, to build on Monday’s bounce from 1.1922, plus the latter November rally from our 1.1799/97/93 supports, and upside pressures from the whole November rally from 1.1601, to keep risks higher for Wednesday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for the new cycle high at 1.2083; a break here aims for a key target at 1.2140, maybe towards 1.2198.
- But below 1.2034 targets 1.2006/00 and maybe aims for 1.1958, which we would look to try to hold.
EURUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early November push above key 1.1881 resistance signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 1.2140 and 1.2556.
- What changes this? Below 1.1744 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.
GBPUSD day trade outlook: Bull breakout
A solid consolidation again for much of Tuesday and then an upside breakout above 1.3398/1.3403 resistances to stall just below the next barrier at 1.3444, at 1.3441, having held above 1.3263/49 supports to retain positive forces from the latter November rally above 1.3312/13 and 1.3359 resistances, plus from the earlier November rally above the key peaks at 1.3177, to keep risks higher for Wednesday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 1.3441/44; a break here aims towards the key cycle high at 1.3483, even 1.3500/15.
- But below 1.3315 aims for 1.3263/49, possibly even opens risk down towards 1.3195/93.
GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early November push above 1.3177 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 1.3483/1.3515 and maybe 1.3711.
- What changes this? Below 1.3106/1.3092 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.