Euro and Pound outlooks mixed as EU-UK talks continue (EURUSD and GBPUSD forecasts)

Intermediate
  • A mixed US Dollar theme over the past 24 hours across Forex markets, echoing the more indecisive tone over the past 1-2 weeks as the correlation with stock indices has shifted.
  • We still see a positive technical tone and upside risks for EURUSD having last week neutralised the Head & Shoulders topping pattern with the push above 1.1870 up to 1.1881.
  • You can learn more about Head & Shoulders topping patterns here.
  • But the Pound remains still vulnerable against the US currency, with a negative GBPUSD forecast for today whilst below 1.3080 (but shifting positive above this level).

EURUSD day trade outlook: Upside bias

A slightly negative consolidation on Tuesday to prod this morning below our flagged support at 1.1785, but whilst holding at 1.1751 we hang onto upside forces from last week’s strong advance above key 1.1870 resistance (to shift the intermediate-term outlook to a broader range, seen as 1.1917 to 1.1687), to keep the bias to the upside Wednesday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for 1.1839; a break here aims for 1.1881, 1.1900 and maybe critical 1.1917.
  • But below 1.1751 opens risk down to 1.1687/83.

EURUSD intermediate-term outlook

The latter October push above 1.1870 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a broader range seen as 1.1917 to 1.1687, having neutralised the bigger Head & Shoulders Top pattern.

  • Upside risks: Above 1.1917 sets an intermediate-term bull trend to target 1.2000/11, 1.2140 and maybe 1.2413.
  • Downside risks: Below 1.1687 sets an intermediate-term bear trend to target 1.1539, 1.1369 and maybe 1.1166.
8 Hour EURUSD Chart
8 Hour EURUSD Chart

GBPUSD day trade outlook: Bias only just lower

A Tuesday rebound to just prod above our 1.3075 resistance to the quickly stall back from 1.3080, and whilst below here we hang onto negative pressures from the setback from last week from 1.3177 to 1.2993, to just keep the threat lower for Wednesday.

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2993 and 1.2970; a break here aims for 1.2910 and maybe 1.2861.
  • But above 1.3080 opens risk up to 1.3122 and possibly 1.3177.

GBPUSD intermediate-term outlook

The early October push above 1.3007 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a range, seen as 1.3239 to 1.2687/75.

  • Upside risks: Above 1.3239 sets an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 1.3359, 1.3486/1.3515 and maybe 1.3711.
  • Downside risks: Below 1.2687/75 sets an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 1.2644, 1.2480 and maybe 1.2251.
8 Hour GBPUSD Chart
8 Hour GBPUSD Chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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