- An aggressive selloff by EURUSD over the past 24 hours, primarily reflecting US Dollar strength, with a thirst for the US currency given a funding and liquidity panic, plus as a safe haven in these times of crisis.
- The global US Dollar shortage has seen the US currency rallying against the usual, go to safe haven, the Japanese Yen.
- EURUSD is now poised at a key support, as highlighted below.
EURUSD day trade outlook: Bear threat to key 1.0949
A plunge lower Tuesday through numerous supports as low as 1.0988, to then hold just above key 1.0949 (at 1.0952), to thereby reinforce negative pressures from last week’s plunge through 1.1094 support (for an intermediate-term shift to neutral from bullish), to keep the bias lower for Wednesday.
- We see a downside bias for 1.0982, 1.0952 and key 1.0949; a break below aims for 1.0901, then maybe 1.0853.
- But above 1.1080/90 targets 1.1145, which we would look to try to cap; above opens risk up towards 1.1189.
EURUSD intermediate-term outlook
The mid-March selloff through key 1.1094 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a range, seen as 1.0949 to 1.1496.
- Upside risks: Above 1.1496 see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 1.1570/1.1621 and 1.1852
- Downside risks Below 1.0949 sees an intermediate-term shift to bearish for 1.0853 and 1.0776.
Daily EURUSD Chart