- The US Dollar has tried to rebound over the past 24 hours, as Fed Speakers have tried to curb market enthusiasm for more aggressive rate cuts.
- However, the US$ weakness from last week which push the EURUSD Forex Rate through important resistances leaves the bias for EURUSD to the upside.
- Clearly, this weekend’s G20 summit could be critical for the future path of the EURUSD FX pair, but the technical bias is higher.
EURUSD upside risk intact
A spike lower and a rebound Tuesday from just below our 1.1360 support (from 11343), to sustain upside forces from Monday’s probe up through 1.1386/90 resistances after last Friday’s surge and intermediate-term bull shift above 1.1348, to keep risks higher for Wednesday.
We see an intermediate-term bull trend since the push above 1.1348
- We see an upside bias for the 1.1410; break here aims for the key 1.1448 peak, maybe towards 1.1488.
- But below 1.1343 opens risk down to 1.1315.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.1448.
- Higher targets would be 1.1509 and 1.1570.
- What Changes This? Below 1.1180 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; through 1.1106is needed for an intermediate-term bear theme.
4 Hour EURUSD Chart