Euro stays vulnerable

Intermediate
  • The Euro remains vulnerable, particularly versus the US Dollar, with recent rebound effort fading.
  • Ongoing concerns regarding a global economic slowdown are intensifying, with signals from the European Central Bank that a still more dovish approach to monetary policy could be seen in 2019.
  • Although the Federal Reserve in the US have also shifted to more dovish, given global economic worries, the US Dollar remains a safe haven of choice.
  • This leaves the EURUSD Forex rate vulnerable, see below.

EURUSD downside bias

A fading rebound Monday after the Friday bounce, capped by 1.1341 resistance after an initial push lower Friday below 1.1256/47 supports to 1.1233, sustaining negative forces from last week’s failure from the 1.1341/60 resistance area and the breaks below the previous key 1.1268/62 support area, keeping risks lower for Tuesday.

We see an intermediate-term range theme as 1.1214 to 1.1570, BUT with risks for an intermediate-term bear shift below the lower level.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1281; break here aims for 1.1233, maybe the key 1214 support.
  • But above 1.1341 targets 1.1360 and maybe aims for 1.1402.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1268/62 to 1.1570.

  • Upside Risks: Above 1.1570 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1621, 1.1815 and 1.2000.
  • Downside Risks: Below 1.1268/62 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 108.39.

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

 eurusd chart


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