- With US yields moving to record lows recently, the US Dollar remains weak.
- The US continues to struggle with significantly rising COVID-19 cases, with the pockets of rising cases in Europe not seen as negative.
- In addition, the EU recovery fund has been agreed, whilst US lawmakers are still debating the next course of fiscal stimulus.
- This leaves the threat for further EURUSD gains today and for August.
EURUSD day trade outlook: Bullish bias
A firm, impulsive rally on Wednesday through 1.1851/53 resistances to build on Tuesday’s resilient consolidation after Monday’s setback to just prod below 1.1697 support and bounce from 1.1694 support, to resume the positive tone from the late July surge through the key 1.1815 and 1.1852 peaks from September and June 2018 respectively to a new cycle high at 1.1909, to keep the risk higher into Thursday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 1.1909; a break here aims maybe towards 1.1952 and maybe key 1.1996/1.2000.
- But below 1.1798 opens risk down to 1.1697/94 and possibly 1.1641.
EURUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early June rally above 1.1147 set an intermediate-term bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend for 1.1996/1.2000 and 1.2414
- What changes this: Below 1.1539 switches the intermediate-term bull trend straight to bearish.