- A further selloff for the Euro over the past 24 hours, leaving risks lower.
- Global financial markets have seen aggressive volatility so far in 2020 given Middle Eastern tensions, with Gold and Oil markets swinging aggressively, as well as stock averages seeing notable selloffs and recoveries.
- On the currency side, FX markets have seen a choppy tone for Japanese Yen cross rates (with the Japanese Yen a safe haven currency), with the US Dollar generally firming against most other major currencies.
- For EURUSD, this positive US Dollar bias leaves EURUSD risks negative.
EURUSD day trade outlook: Negative theme intact
A Thursday probe lower to hit and just stop at our 1.1092 target, to reinforce Wednesday’s selloff through 1.1123 and losses since Monday’s rebound stalled just above the 1.1203/04 resistance area (at 1.1206), to leave downside risks into Friday.
- We see a downside bias for 1.1092; a break below aims for key 1.1068/65 and maybe towards 1.1038.
- But above 1.1131 opens risk up towards 1.1168 and maybe towards 1.1203/06.
EURUSD intermediate-term outlook
An early December surge through the key 1.1097 peak signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.
Upside risks: We see an upside risk for 1.1250 and 1.1322.
What changes this? Below 1.1065 shifts the intermediate-term outlook neutral and below 1.0980 to an intermediate-term bear theme.
4 Hour EURUSD Chart