Euro vulnerable, at key support into GDP release

  • EURUSD remains vulnerable into Thursday with both potentially negative influences on the Euro side and possibly positive impacts on the US Dollar side.
  • Today the focus will be on Jerome Powell’s second day of testimony to Congress, with Eurozone GDP earlier this morning.
  • We continue to see risks for a more negative outcome on the Eurozone side and for a more hawkish leaning from Powell.
  • This could see EURUSD challenge a key level at 1.0989 for a more negative shift.

EURUSD: Poised at key 1.0989

A Wednesday prod lower below 1.1000 after Tuesday’s failure from below our 1.1055 resistance (from 1.1043), to sustain bear forces evident since the early November plunge below 1.1071 for a Double Top pattern, to keep risks lower for Thursday.

  • We see a downside bias for 1.0994 and then the key 1.0989 level; break here aims for 1.0959 and maybe critical 1.0939.
  • But above 1.1020 opens risk up to 1.1043/55, maybe towards 1.1092/93.

Intermediate-term outlook

  • The mid-October surge through 1.1110 set an intermediate-term bull trend, BUT risk is growing for a push below 1.0989 for an intermediate-term shift to neutral, maybe to bearish below 1.0939.
  • Upside risks: We see an upside risk for 1.1250. Higher targets would be 1.1322 and 1.1412.
  • What changes this? Below 1.0989 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; through 1.0939 is needed for an intermediate-term bear theme.

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

EURUSD chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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