- EURUSD remains vulnerable into Thursday with both potentially negative influences on the Euro side and possibly positive impacts on the US Dollar side.
- Today the focus will be on Jerome Powell’s second day of testimony to Congress, with Eurozone GDP earlier this morning.
- We continue to see risks for a more negative outcome on the Eurozone side and for a more hawkish leaning from Powell.
- This could see EURUSD challenge a key level at 1.0989 for a more negative shift.
EURUSD: Poised at key 1.0989
A Wednesday prod lower below 1.1000 after Tuesday’s failure from below our 1.1055 resistance (from 1.1043), to sustain bear forces evident since the early November plunge below 1.1071 for a Double Top pattern, to keep risks lower for Thursday.
- We see a downside bias for 1.0994 and then the key 1.0989 level; break here aims for 1.0959 and maybe critical 1.0939.
- But above 1.1020 opens risk up to 1.1043/55, maybe towards 1.1092/93.
- The mid-October surge through 1.1110 set an intermediate-term bull trend, BUT risk is growing for a push below 1.0989 for an intermediate-term shift to neutral, maybe to bearish below 1.0939.
- Upside risks: We see an upside risk for 1.1250. Higher targets would be 1.1322 and 1.1412.
- What changes this? Below 1.0989 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; through 1.0939 is needed for an intermediate-term bear theme.
4 Hour EURUSD Chart