EURUSD and GBPUSD still point to further losses

  • The current “risk on” phase that continues to be displayed by the major European and US equity indices has been accompanied by a strong US Dollar.
  • The US currency has been steadily advancing through the second half of April and more erratically since March against many major global currencies, which has been at least partially in reaction to strong US economic data, but with ongoing concerns of a slowing global economy.
  • Here we highlight this US$ strength, by underscoring ongoing weakness in the EURUSD and GBPUSD Forex rates.

EURUSD bear forces intact

An erratic session Friday with another push lower to 1.1109, to reinforce Thursday’s probe through an important support level from June 2017 at 1.1119, plus Wednesday’s plunge through the multi-month low at 1.1175, and despite a rebound effort, whilst below 111.74 to keep risks lower for Monday.

The latter April plunge through 1/.1175 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.1109 and 1.1081; break here aims towards 1.1039.
  • But above 1.1174 opens risk up to 1.1192, maybe towards 1.1229.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.1119.

  • Lower targets would be 1.1000 and 1.0839.
  • What Changes This? Above 1.1324 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

eurusd chart

GBPUSD bear theme

A consolidation Friday after Thursday’s push down through February support at 1.2890, that reinforced last week’s failure from resistance at 1.2964 and prior surrender of key 1.2947 support, to keep risks lower for Monday.

The latter April probe below 1.2947 signalled an intermediate-term Double Top pattern and set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:                                              

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2864; break here aims for 1.2830/25, maybe 1.2771.
  • But above 1.2964 opens risk up to 1.3019, maybe 1.3050.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2771.

  • Lower targets would be 1.2437, 1.2366 and 1.2109
  • What Changes This? Above 1.3196 is needed to shift straight to a bull theme.

4 Hour GBPUSD Chart

gbpusd chart

Latest News

nikkei 225
Global equity index vulnerabilities

Global financial markets continue to react negatively to global trade war concerns. Asian, European and US equity averages have all rolled back lower this week into late May, damaging rebound effort made from mid-May. This sets the immediate risks lower and starts to resume the negative tone set during the significant selloff in the first … Continued

USDNOK and EURNOK mixed short-term outlooks

USDNOK retains a positive short-term tone within a broader, intermediate-term range. EURNOK has a negative short-term bias, also in a neutral, intermediate-term environment. This tells us more about EURUSD than anything else, that the risks for EURUSD are to the downside. USDNOK upside threat A resilient consolidation for much of May, digesting the later April-early … Continued

Dow Jones
US equity averages cling to a positive tone

A consolidation theme has emerged for the major US (and in fact European) equity averages over the past 1-2 weeks, with no significantly new bad news emerging from the ailing US-Sino trade negotiations. This has allowed equity markets to rebound and ease bear forces from the aggressive selloffs seen in the first half of May. … Continued

USDPLN breaking out for renewed bullish theme

Another push higher Tuesday and again into Wednesday, reinforcing the previous tentative breakout from the Ascending Triangle pattern above 3.8594 and 3.8644 resistances, leaving both short- and intermediate-term bull themes intact and aiming higher for Wednesday. The intermediate-term outlook is bullish, sustained by 2019 solid consolidation above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 rally. … Continued

Forex Brokers in your location