- The Euro has come under broad negative pressures through mid-January, driven by continuing political turmoil in France and Italy, plus in Greece, Tsipras called and closely survived a vote of no confidence.
- Furthermore, the European Central Bank had been expected to begin to tighten up their very accommodative monetary policy and maybe start hiking rates by summer 2019. Disappointing inflation data is still the major concern for the ECB President, Mario Draghi and ahead of Thursday’s ECB Meeting, he cautioned markets last week that significant improvement would be required to see the rate hiking cycle commence.
- This sent the Euro lower and leaves the spotlight on further comments on the Thursday 24th January meeting.
EURUSD bear risks increasing to key 1.1308 and 1.1268/62 supports
A push lower Friday through 1.1369 support having stalled back from below 1.1455 resistance (from 1.1410), sustaining negative pressures from the selloff last week through various January supports, to keep the immediate risks lower for Monday.
The early January surge above 1.1545 set an intermediate-term bull theme, BUT risks is growing for an intermediate-term shift back to neutral below 1.1308 and even to bearish below 1.1268/62.
- We see a downside bias for 1.1344/36; break here aims for key 1.1308.
- But above 1.1455 opens risk up to 1.1490, maybe 1.1541/45 and 1.1570/81, maybe critical 1.1268/62.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.1621.
- Higher targets would be 1.1815 and 1.2000.
- What Changes This? Below 1.1308 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.1268/62 is needed for a bear theme.
4 Hour EURUSD Chart