- The Euro has managed a decent rebound effort from early April, having been setting up last week to try to make a more bearish signal into the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve Meeting last week (see our report here).
- The EUR USD currency pair recovery through resistance levels has partly reflected a renewal of risk appetite, with European equity averages responding particularly well to some improvement in European data through the first part of April (after economic data weakness seen in March).
- Although the EURUSD Forex rate remains caught within a broader range environment, in the short-term the risks are to the upside.
EURUSD risks still higher
A Wednesday rebound as expected after Tuesday’s dip just below our initial support at 1.1280 but to bounce from 1.1277, to sustain a positive tone from the earlier April firm advance (through 1.1295 resistance) and rebound from 1.1248 (above the 1.1228 support), to aim higher for Thursday.
We see a broader, intermediate-term range as 1.1448 to 1.1175.
- We see an upside bias for 1.1324 and 1.1332/41; break here aims towards 1.1390.
- But below 1.1280/77 opens risk down to 1.1248 and maybe 1.1228.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1448 to 1.1175.
- Upside Risks: Above 1.1448 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1509, 1.1570/1.1621, 1.1815/52 and 1.1996/1.2000.
- Downside Risks: Below 1.1175 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 1.0839.
4 Hour EUR USD Chart