• A broad “risk off” scenario hit global markets Monday as US President Trump put tariffs on Steel and Aluminum imports from Brazil and Argentina, heightening the global trade war.
• This sent stocks lower, and in this scenario had a negative impact on the US Dollar within G3, with the greenback losing ground to both the Japanese Yen and Euro (EURUSD higher).
• This theme was reinforced by weaker than expected US ISM PMI data, which saw the US currency still lower and sent EURUSD back to the upper end of its recent range with a threat for a bullish signal

EURUSD Day trade outlook: Intermediate-term bull threat to key 1.1097

A Monday surge above 1.1028/32 and 1.1060 resistances, to reject Friday’s probe below key 1.0988 (to shift the intermediate-term outlook from bullish to a neutral range, now 1.0980 to 1.1037) to switch risks higher for Monday.

• We see an upside bias for key 1.1097; break here aims for 1.1140, maybe 1.1176/73.
• But below 1.1053/51 opens risk down to key 1.0980.

EURUSD Intermediate-term outlook

Range breakout parameters: Range seen as 1.0980 to 1.1037.

• Upside risks: Above 1.1037 sets an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 1.1186, 1.1250 and 1.1322.
• Downside risks: Below 1.0980 sees an intermediate-term bear trend to target 1.0878, 1.0570 and 1.0474.

4 Hour EURUSD Chart

Steve Miley

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued