- The focus today is on the Federal Reserve in their last FOMC Meeting of 2019.
- No change in interest rates in anticipated but given the better than expected US Employment data last week, the risk is for the Fed to begin to shift away from a more dovish stance to slightly more hawkish.
- Such a shift in tone could see the EURUSD forecast shift lower with US Dollar strength.
- Thursday sees the first ECB Meeting with Christine Lagarde as President.
- The threat is for her to maybe move away from an ultra-dovish tone, which could aim the EURUSD Forex rate higher.
EURUSD day trade outlook
A positive tone Tuesday to push above 1.1079/80 resistances and build on Monday’s solid consolidation, after Friday’s selloff and rebound from new support established at 1.1038.
This sustains upside forces from last week’s spike above key 1.1097 (to signal an intermediate-term bullish shift), to keep risks higher Wednesday.
- We see an upside bias for 1.1101 and 1.1116/17; break here aims for 1.1140.
- But below 1.1054 quickly opens risk down to 1.1038, maybe 1.1001.
EURUSD intermediate-term outlook
An early December surge through the key 1.1097 peak signaled an intermediate-term bullish shift.
Upside risks: We see an upside risk for 1.1183, 1.1250 and 1.1322.
What changes this? Below 1.0980 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to an intermediate-term bear theme.
4 Hour EURUSD Forex Chart