- EURUSD saw a surge higher on Wednesday, primarily a reaction to an ongoing weakening US Dollar, as opposed to a particularly strong Euro.
- US Dollar weakness has been a theme for early 2019, given the more dovish tone from the Fed from late 2018 and in particular from FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell.
- The FOMC Minutes on Wednesday reinforced this dovish outlook and points to further weakness for the greenback in the short-term at least and aims EURUSD still higher.
EURUSD technical analysis outlook
We have stressed in our recent Market Chartist reports to our clients in early 2019 that “erratic early 2019 price action leaves an intermediate-term range theme defined as 1.1545 to 1.1268/62, BUT NOW with risks skewed towards an intermediate-term bull shift above 1.1545” and the Wednesday surge to probe above 1.1545 sets an intermediate-term bull theme.
Furthermore, this price action above 1.1545 has built on Monday’s firm advance above 1.1434 resistance, to keep the immediate risks higher for Thursday.
- We see an upside bias for 1.1570/80/81; break here aims for key 1.1621/25 and maybe then 1.1685.
- But below 1.1507 opens risk down to 1.1444 and 1.1421.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.1621.
- Higher targets would be 1.1815 and 1.2000.
- What Changes This? Below 1.1308 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.1268/62 is needed for a bear theme.
4 Hour EURUSD Chart