EURUSD plunge post-ECB

In their meeting on Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) slashed GDP and inflation forecasts and shifted to a still more dovish stance, with a new round of monetary stimulus for banks.
This unsettled European (and global) equity markets, saw a rush into safe haven Bunds (German Government Bonds) and saw a plunge in the Euro versus most major currencies.
Here we focus on a more bearish tone for EURUSD and downside risks for the pan-European equity benchmark, the Euro STOXX 50.

EURUSD intermediate-term bearish shift

We have stressed in a February reports here that “we see an intermediate-term range theme as 1.1214 to 1.1570, BUT with risks for an intermediate-term bear shift below the lower level” and the post-ECB plunge through 1.1214 has seen an intermediate-term move to a bear trend.

Furthermore, this plunge below 1.1214 alongside prior negative forces from early march through various supports keeps risks lower for Friday.

For Today:

We see a downside bias for 1.1175/71; break here aims for 1.1143 and 1.1119.
But above 1.1243 opens risk up to 1.1288.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.1119.

Lower targets would be 1.1000 and 1.0839
What Changes This? Above 1.1420 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.1509 is needed for a bull theme.

4 Hour EUR/USD Chart

Euro STOXX 50 risk shift to the downside

A selloff through our 3306 support on Thursday to reject recent rebound activity and then break further notable supports at 3298/96, to damage the immediate bull theme and shift risks lower for Friday.

The mid-January surge above 3105 set an intermediate-term bull theme, BUT risk is growing to test 3258 for an intermediate-term shift to neutral.

For Today: