- Global financial markets remain nervous and volatile due to trade war tensions and concerns regarding the global economic slowdown and recessionary fears for the US economy.
- Today’s FOMC Minutes from the last meeting could provide directional tone across asset classes in the short-term.
- Here we focus on the risk barometer from the Forex markets, the USDJPY currency pair.
USDJPY bias stays lower, whilst below 106.78
A setback Tuesday with the recent rebound effort capped as we had flagged at our 106.78 resistance, thereby sustaining a negative bias from last week’s push back lower (after the spike to 106.98), to keep risks lower for Wednesday.
The plunge below 106.75 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
- We see a downside bias for 105.93 and 105.60; break here aims for 105.02/00.
- But above 106.78 opens risk up to 106.98/107.09 and maybe towards 107.28.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 104.56.
- Lower targets would be 101.19, 100.00 and 99.00.
- What Changes This? Above 107.09 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above 107.57 is needed for an intermediate-term bull theme.
4 Hour USDJPY Chart