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Latest USD JPY Analysis and Forecast

Further sell off, bear bias intact

Day trade update and view

A Thursday sell off to reinforce Wednesday's setback and Tuesday's failure back from 115.05, to retain bear pressures from the mid-January plunge through the key 114.64 level (to shift the intermediate-term outlook to a bear trend) down to 113.45, keeping risks lower for Friday. 

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for 113.93/77 and 113.45; a break here maybe aims for 113.11.
  • But above 114.79 targets 115.05 and possibly opens risk up to 115.48 and key 115.68. 

Intermediate-term outlook

The push below the key 114.64 level signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 112.50, 110.79 and 109.08/108.69.
  • What changes this? Above 115.68 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend straight to an intermediate-term bull trend.

USD JPY Calendar

21/01/22 BoJ Meeting Minutes; UK Retail Sales; Canadian Retail Sales

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Other major currency pairs

BUY - rate is expected to increase, i.e. the first currency gains value against the second currency.
SELL - rate is expected to go down, i.e. the first currency is expected to lose value against the second currency.