Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- U.S. equities extended their rebound for a second straight week, with major indexes posting solid gains on the back of strong earnings and easing trade tensions, though year-to-date losses persist.
- Signs of progress in U.S.–China trade relations, including tariff rollbacks by President Trump and China’s willingness to engage in talks, have lifted market sentiment and revived hopes for a broader deal.
- Microsoft and Meta led a strong first-quarter earnings season with standout results last week, while Apple and Amazon posted mixed performances amid trade-related concerns, as overall S&P 500 earnings growth surpassed expectations despite cautious outlooks for the months ahead.
- Despite a first-quarter GDP contraction driven by a surge in imports, stronger-than-expected job growth and cooling inflation data have reinforced the resilience of the U.S. economy.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady on May 7, with markets watching closely for any signals on future cuts amid economic uncertainty and cautious policymaker messaging.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages moved notably higher.
- US and European bond were little changed on the week
- The US Dollar Indexwas slightly higher on the week.
- Gold futures sold off from a new all-time high in April.
- Oil futures sold off..
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activities this week are the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday and the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, Minutes and Monetary Policy Statement on Thursday.
Macro Data Watch: The main macro data releases this week are the Global Service and Composite PMI data on Monday and Tuesday, EU Retail Sales on Wednesday, and Chinese Trade Report on Friday.
Earnings Watch: The US Q1 2025 earning season slows down this week with most of the major companies already releasing their earnings. The main earnings this week will come from Palantir on Monday and Uber Tech on Wednesday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 05/05/2025 | Global Service and Composite PMI |
| 05/06/2025 | UK Retail Sales; global Service and Composite PMI; EU PPI |
| 05/07/2025 | Fed Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement; EU Retail Sales; German Factory Orders |
| 05/08/2025 | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; German Industrial Production; BoE Interest Rate Decision, Minutes and Monetary Policy Statement |
| 05/09/2025 | Chinese Trade Report; Canadian Employment Report |
