- A firm rally by global stock indices on Wednesday, to build on this week’s advance and the late June-early July surge higher.
- This has sustained the more bullish threat we highlighted last week as stock indices have resolved the June consolidation theme in to a more bullish view.
- The “risk on” bias has been assisted over the past 48 hours by positive tests from Oxford University and Moderna for a COVID-19 vaccine.
- Here we look at the German benchmark share average future, our DAX forecast for today and into the second half of July.
DAX day trade outlook: Bull theme
Day trade update and view
A bull gap into Wednesday (12791-782, subsequently closed), to overcome various resistances, including the cycle peak at 12934, up to 12989, to build on Tuesday’s rebound from within our 12520/509 support area, from 12515, to keep the risks to the upside for Thursday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for 12938.5 and the new cycle peak at 12989 and then 13000; a break here aims for February swing resistance at 13158.5 and 13250.
- But below 12758 opens risk down to 12612; a break here targets 12515/509, possibly 12384.5.
DAX intermediate-term outlook
The late May rally above 11417.5 signalled an intermediate-term shift from a bear trend to a broad, neutral range and the acceleration above the 12275.5 swing peak from early March, sets an intermediate-term bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend and risk for 13824 and 15000.
- What changes this? Below 11589.5 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.