BTCUSD has been making new highs; again The time based technicals are mixed; they suggest more upside The U.S. level of debt : GDP is a driver, as are the turbulent final days of Trump Many once sceptical voices are now becoming converts “…You gotta take it up a level and go up higher Put … Continued
Stephen Pope is the Managing Partner of Spotlight Group. He has worked in the world of finance since 1982 and has performed duties as a market making trader, salesman and analyst. Stephen brings this wealth of experience gained at American, British, French, and Japanese institutions to bear in his analytical work.
He traded Euro Dollar Bonds for Japanese, Scandinavian and Supranational names, using risk weighted analysis to hedge the trading books. As a trader he often had telephone calls from Tokyo in the early hours to make prices for Far East clients.
He has a broad base of client service and his career progressed rapidly as he rejected a “smile and dial” approach in favour of methodical client profiling and building an open exchange of information with traders. This led to actively scanning the markets for “Rich/Cheap” analysis for relative value trades that could maximise portfolio switches either in a similar maturity or via modified duration weighted yield curve plays.
This progress led him to being a leading figure in the world of central banks bond sales as he advised national agencies such as the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Bahrain Ministry of Finance, The Central Bank of Kuwait, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Central Bank of Oman, State General Reserve Fund of Oman, Bank of Botswana and South African Reserve Bank.
Portfolio management by state authorities actively uses the repo market. In this area, Stephen provided all clients with an active list of repo opportunities, especially highlighted issues that were on “Special” as against just “General Collateral”. Indeed, he brokered the first repo trade with the Central Bank of Iran and Nordic Investment Bank.
In an active career clients have been covered in all geographic regions and time zones embracing 36 nations.
As an analyst/strategist Stephen was a regular speaker at investor meetings and conferences as well as a much-sought guest on global financial television: ABC (Australia), ABC (U.S.), Al-Jazeera, BBC, Bloomberg, BNN (Canada), CNBC, CNN, Fox, New Delhi Markets, Reuters and Saxo Bank TV. With Reuters Stephen was the first guest to be interviewed for a “live” broadcast into The People’s Republic of China.
In addition to FxExplained.co.uk, Stephen is also currently writing for Forbes and previously for Saxo Bank. His insight into the tobacco industry is regularly used by The Winston Salem Journal. On the radio he is a regular guest on the Resonance FM programme that covers the hedge fund industry, “The Naked Short Club”.
Stephen gained his BA (HONS) Economics (II.I) from the University of Warwick in 1982 and his MBA from Henley Management College in 1995.
He gained professional examination awards from the Association of International Bond Dealers (Now called the International Capital Markets Association) in 1988, is a member of the Financial Conduct Authority and has been a Fellow of the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment.
He currently lectures as an adjunct Professor with the University of Maryland in the field of Business Management and Economics. In addition, he is a guest lecturer for Economics at the London Academy of Trading and the London School of Wealth Management as well as training summer interns and new graduate recruits at leading commercial and investment banks in Europe and the U.S.
Initial Parameters: Chart analysis is technical and taken from medium-term historical pattern Technical projections based on a twelve-month time horizon Targets set are based on the most recent, significant technical adjustment Analysis is based on Elliot Wave and Fibonacci techniques Technical analysis only guides; exogenous factors can shock any market Markets, being capricious, forecasts are … Continued
Copper has been moving higher since November 1 The time based technicals are bright green once past Monday November 9 The U.S. political scene favours a softer Dollar Look for prices to test U.S. Dollars 3.36/lb as a first staging post “…You’d better stay away from Copperhead Road…” (“Copperhead Road” Steve Earle ) There may … Continued
Corn has been on a rip since August 9 The time based technicals are all flashing bright green Market sales are strong and a new opening in Brazil is beckoning Look for prices to test US Cents 500/Bushel “…There’s a bright golden haze on the meadow, There’s a bright golden haze on the meadow … Continued
GBPUSD Spot is driven by COVID-19, Brexit and the U.S. election Is the President in rude health? There is not any consistency in his message Market sentiment will swing behind Sterling as the election draws near Sterling will soar to challenge the 200-day moving average GBPUSD Spot endured a sideway pattern of trading on Friday … Continued
EURUSD Spot has broken below the 50-day moving average Market may see short-term Euro buying, this will not last Neither the U.S. nor Eurozone economy are in rude health No ECB support for the Euro as the region slipped into deflation during August EURUSD Spot ventured below the 50-day moving average (50dma) on September 22 … Continued
Gold has been drifting sideways since early August Market is well supported at the 50-day moving average The market has a low degree of volatility There will be early weakness in the Spot price, that signals a buying opportunity Gold Spot has ventured toward the 50-day moving average (50dma) in recent days, as shown by … Continued
Coffee has pushed higher so negating the March to late April decline Market sentiment is bullish at every time measure The market has a high degree of volatility There is a mild sentiment of being overbought, however, look to be contrarian Coffee has staged a break higher of 14.51% since June 23 when spot managed … Continued
USD will start next week in the ascendency against the CAD This will not last long and be ready to reverse the view as the week drew on The U.S. response to COVID-19 is poor and the economy is under paced The USDCAD pair is used as a vehicle to express a view on oil … Continued
Despite COVID-19 and a slowing economy GBPUSD pushed higher Market sentiment is bearish in the very near-term, this will give way The impact of any Chinese retaliation will not be as bad as feared The muddle in the U.S. suggests Sterling can find a new leg higher Sterling drove higher during the last week on … Continued
Despite Airbus saying carriers are still paying, this is legacy payments pre COVID-19 Market sentiment is bearish as cash generation is deemed hard The top line will fall by 30% when we look at Q4 2020 versus Q4 2019 The recent price level is just a staging post ahead of a new leg lower. Airbus … Continued
The circular economy is built on sustainability The aim is to design waste out of the system It eliminates the impact of negative externalities It drives energy efficiency and security New Times, New Challenges COVID-19 has destabilised both national economies and indeed the global economy. Even as societies and businesses take steps to reopen, the … Continued
Gold sentiment is evenly divided Market sentiment is short-term bearish…giving way to a bullish disposition The U.S. Fed has painted a poor economic outlook; soft rates near zero till Q4 2022 Europe looks to be in a deeper economic dislocation than the U.S., so gold trumps $ and € The are many great debates in … Continued
Spain is in recession Too many people chasing too few jobs Business and consumer sentiment evaporated Lockdown may be lifting, however, tourism will be a pale shadow of past years Trade the DAX/IBEX 35 Global Equities Improve Since a low point on March 20 at 99.58, a fall of 30.40% from the start of the … Continued
Key members of the Eurozone crash into recession Business and consumer sentiment evaporated Every nation/region of the world faces a deep economic dislocation None more so than the Eurozone; the long game is not Euro Index friendly Kaputte Wirtschaft (Broken Economy) Germany is the leading economy of the Eurozone accounting for 28.25% of the regions … Continued
Since the 1960’s supply chains have gone global Cost control and profitability were key drivers Coronavirus has crashed the global economy There is a new drive to build local chains In the traditional teaching of economic theory, the argument suggests that global GDP will increase when the principle of comparative advantage  is applied by … Continued
Euro Dollar has edged higher over the week Market sentiment is short-term Euro bullish The early Monday bounce in EURUSD will not last, even if U.S. jobs data is poor Europe looks to be in a deeper economic dislocation than the U.S. The Euro has made up part of the ground conceded over the past … Continued
Greek economy to contract by 10% in 2020 Unemployment will soar over 22% Debt to GDP will break 200% The cost of lockdown is EUR5 Billion a month At a time when much of the focus in Europe has been directed onto the plight of Italy and Spain or the debate of mutualising debt through … Continued
Dollar Index has edged higher over the week Markets appear to support the Dollar on good and not so good economic prints Europe looks to be in a deeper economic dislocation than the U.S. The right trade is to short any early Monday bounce in EURUSD as a push toward parity beckons The Dollar traded … Continued
Natural Gas demand has fallen heavily as result of COVID-19 Markets initially tried to rally during the week but there were no buyers in the ring Even if home heating demand rises there will be no lasting upside The right trade is to short any early Monday bounce The level of global demand for natural … Continued
The move to working at home is in full cry It will not be long before a full lockdown is in force across all major economies The wheels of business and education have to keep turning amid coronavirus fears The stay at home stock of Zoom, still has room to well….ZOOM PLEASE NOTE…TRYING TO CALL … Continued
Markets are in turmoil after Trump’s travel ban Coronavirus pandemic spreads recession fear Short selling blamed for accelerating the collapse Markets will, in time recover much of the losses I am starting to write this note at 14:20 GMT on Thursday, March 12, 2020. Once again all I see in the equity markets is a … Continued
The Opec meeting wanted to cut production Russia, blocked such a move, claiming it can cope The market is falling as demand forecasts plummet on Coronavirus fears The price of WTI is in decline, it will break below $37 OPEC and non-OPEC allies (OPEC +) gathered in Vienna on March 5th and 6th looking to … Continued
The market has begun to show genuine concern about coronavirus Is it really contained in China? It appears to be spreading elsewhere! There are calls for extra fiscal stimulus to take up economic slack The price trends of late last week will continue On Friday, February 21 global investors adopted a serious sense of concern … Continued
The Opec meeting wanted to cut production Russia, blocked such a move, calling for more consideration The market is falling as Coronavirus has not been dealt with quickly enough The price of WTI can decline toward $44.50 As February got underway the Joint Technical Committee (JTC) of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) … Continued
U.S. Services are in expansionary mode Market likes that even if manufacturing is in a slump The ECB is likely to spend the year pondering inflation…or the lack of it The EURUSD rate will slide to 1.0800 in Q1 2020 The U.S. Dollar climbed against its rivals Friday on data that showed evidence of ongoing … Continued
Media anticipates a great spending year in 2020 Political spending in the U.S. will rise 59% There are risks for static corporates and agencies from digital growth The perennial weak spot will be advertising in newspapers The advertising, communications and media sectors endured a torrid time during 2017 and 2018. This was not to be … Continued
Boris Johnson has won an incredible election victory The U.K. will leave the EU on January 31st, 2019 The market was euphoric as the risk of Corbyn was dispatched GBPUSD pair will dip first thing, but then start building new strength Throughout the 2019 U.K. general election the Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson held … Continued
Eurozone inflation picked up in November Broader economic picture does not indicate pricing pressure The market is showing a greater disposition to the Dollar The EURUSD pair cannot break out from a long running bear channel Despite signs of recovery in recent Eurozone data the Euro to U.S. Dollar (EURUSD) exchange rate ended the week … Continued
OECD growth expectations have deteriorated Weak trade flows are a serious concern There is a need for greater urgency on a global basis to tackle climate change The U.S. will turn inwards in election year, so growth in China will be crucial The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has said in a new … Continued
Non-Farm Payrolls in October exceeded expectations The only concern is manufacturing which continues to struggle The Fed seems justified in pausing on rates for now The declines durable goods orders and a build of excess capacity will need watching Non-Farm Payrolls in the U.S. is arguably the most important economic statistic in the world. It … Continued
The IMF have downgraded their global economic forecasts The European economy is struggling so driving the ECB to relaunch QE The U.S. economy has grown well, however, it has a feel of recession on the horizon There is an urgent need for a rethink as to how macroeconomics provides solutions GDP growth forecasts for the … Continued
U.S. Services PMI is at its weakest for three-years The growth in new business is stalling Job creation averaged 161,000 per month in 2019, cf. 223,000 in 2018 The re-election prospects of the president are taking a tumble Meeting minutes from the Fed will be keenly watched in the week ahead for further indications as … Continued
OECD has a gloomy economic outlook for 2019 and 2020 The only inflation is in financial assets It is time to put all banks through a series of radical stress tests and let the weak fail The required reforms do not include nationalising the banking system The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recently … Continued
The world economy is slowing President Trump is driving a trade war The Eurozone is suffering from fading growth and confidence The writing is on the wall as far as the yield curve is concerned Be in no doubt, the world’s financial markets are in a funk as bond yields race to a bottom that … Continued
As the Fed indicate rate cuts are coming gold will keep rising over the summer There is a disconnect between asset price inflation and the real economy Earnings will be flat or disappointing and too much debt has little or negative yield U.S. Natural Gas futures look to be ready to break below the $2.00 … Continued
ECB should have acted now; not delayed The economic data in the Eurozone is weak and getting worse The U.S. economy is coping incredibly well The Fed will cut rates, but the ECB has a more urgent need to act The ECB held interest rates unchanged at their meeting on Thursday July 25, 2019 with … Continued
Sterling has little positive technical sentiment beyond the very opening on July 22nd The benefits Sterling may gain from a Fed rate cut are overwhelmed by Brexit The future of Sterling will be dictated by the way Brexit is conducted Target Sterling to drop as amid the uncertainty the path of least resistance is lower … Continued
As the Fed indicate rate cuts are coming gold will keep rising over the summer There is a disconnect between asset price inflation and the real economy Earnings will be flat or disappointing and too much debt has little or negative yield I last looked at Gold on May 26, 2019 when I called for … Continued
Dollar bulls are indicating a positive technical sentiment The jobs data for June has diminished the chances of too loose a Fed policy The U.S. economy is coping ith trade disputes Target the USD Index to dip, before rallying beyond its current channel The U.S. Dollar rose on Friday to a three-week high when it … Continued
Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to extend their oil restrictions The oil price was pushed higher over U.S. – Iran tensions The level of U.S. production means America does not need to engage in the Arabian Gulf Target WTI down to 56.39 The Saudi Arabian Energy Minister, Khalid al-Falih said on Saturday, June 29, 2019 … Continued
FedEx will announce results after the close on Tuesday The last dividend offered no increase in payment value The stock is going to suffer if the U.S. and China are engaged in a trade dispute Sustained upside depends on Trump and Xi =making progress at the G20 If one were to look at the picture … Continued
Dollar bulls are looking for further gains against the Euro The ECB has recognised the weakness of the Eurozone economy The desirability of the Eurozone as a place to do business is shockingly low Target EURUSD down to 1.0936 EURUSD posted losses over the past week and the chart at the end of this article … Continued
Coffee bulls are scattered as bad weather in Brazil recedes Global stocks are high after a bumper crop in 2018 The sugar market is set to slip into a deficit Sugar production in India could fall as much as 15 per cent in 2019-20 I look at the one-year chart for coffee and find it … Continued
Dollar bulls are scattered The Dollar is reeling after Trump’s tariff attack on Mexico There is no economic outperformance from Japan, but still Yen rises Target USDJPY down to 107.45 USDJPY posted losses on Friday after two positive sessions to close the month at 108.28 (-1.21%). Source: www.tradingeconomics.com, Spotlight Ideas This came amid a widespread … Continued
After a quiet week, do not think gold will sleep over the summer U.S. / China and U.S./Iran are potential flash points Fed policy now looks neutral to easier…a good plus for gold The market for gold closed on Friday at $1284.30 (-1.10 or -0.09%); this was nearly $10 higher than at Monday’s opening. Much … Continued
Sterling slipped to four-month lows on Friday Conservative and Labour cannot agree a Brexit path FX markets are focused on the risk of a new hard Brexiteer Prime Minister Third target now set at 1.2432 I know my note covered the market for Sterling Dollar (GBPUSD) last week, however, if a week is a long … Continued
Sterling levelled out on Friday after a slippery week U.K. grew but on a large build of inventories FX markets are focused on the U.S. trade talks Polls show rising risk of a Labour Government Target a summer decline to 1.2536 Sterling pulled back during the course of the week against the U.S. Dollar, closing … Continued
Natural gas collapsed on Friday There is no weather-related buying There is a large build of inventories Target a summer decline to 2.379 Natural gas futures crashed lower last Friday (May 3) as traders who held onto longs acquired between April 23 and 26 succumbed to the clear absence of any weather-driven demand. There was … Continued
Dollar bulls are in full cry, they like the positive economic tone The strength of the Dollar will continue, even if the Fed are on hold There is no economic need for a rate cut; pricing is incorrect Target 98.70 This past week saw the U.S. Dollar trade at better levels against most of the … Continued