Author

Stephen Pope

Macroeconomic Strategist
http://spotlightideas.net/

Stephen Pope is the Managing Partner of Spotlight Group. He has worked in the world of finance since 1982 and has performed duties as a salesman, market maker trader and analyst. Stephen brings this wealth of experience gained at American, British, French, and Japanese institutions to bear in his analytical work.

He has a broad base of client service having advised national agencies such as Central Banks, Government Ministries, and Sovereign Wealth Funds and from the private sector, Commercial and Investment Banks, Insurance Companies, Pension Funds and Publicly Listed Corporations.
Clients have been covered in all geographic regions and time zones embracing 36 nations.

Stephen gained his BA (HONS) Economics (II.I) from the University of Warwick in 1982 and his MBA from Henley Management College in 1995.
He gained professional examination awards from the Association of International Bond Dealers (Now called the International Capital Markets Association) in 1988, is a member of the Financial Conduct Authority and has been a Fellow of the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment.


Intermediate

Sterling shows the extent of Market frustration with Brexit

Sterling slipped to four-month lows on Friday Conservative and Labour cannot agree a Brexit path FX markets are focused on the risk of a new hard Brexiteer Prime Minister Third target now set at 1.2432 I know my note covered the market for Sterling Dollar (GBPUSD) last week, however, if a week is a long … Continued

Intermediate

Sinking Sterling Is Going To Suffer Further Setbacks

Sterling levelled out on Friday after a slippery week U.K. grew but on a large build of inventories FX markets are focused on the U.S. trade talks Polls show rising risk of a Labour Government Target a summer decline to 1.2536 Sterling pulled back during the course of the week against the U.S. Dollar, closing … Continued

Intermediate

Natural Gas Chariot To Swing Low

Natural gas collapsed on Friday There is no weather-related buying There is a large build of inventories Target a summer decline to 2.379 Natural gas futures crashed lower last Friday (May 3) as traders who held onto longs acquired between April 23 and 26 succumbed to the clear absence of any weather-driven demand. There was … Continued

Intermediate

U.S. Dollar Index Waits For Fed; Should Push Higher

Dollar bulls are in full cry, they like the positive economic tone The strength of the Dollar will continue, even if the Fed are on hold There is no economic need for a rate cut; pricing is incorrect Target 98.70 This past week saw the U.S. Dollar trade at better levels against most of the … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY Breaking To Higher Ground

Dollar bulls are in full cry, there are positive background noises The strength of the Dollar will continue, even if the Fed are on hold There is no economic outperformance from Japan Target USDJPY rising to 114.55 USDJPY broke above the 112 level this past Friday and in so doing printed a month high at … Continued

Intermediate

EUR/USD – Speculators Increasingly Dollar Bullish

Dollar bulls are in full cry The strength of the Dollar will continue, even after mixed jobs data There was no Euro gain on Friday afternoon A Euro bounce on Monday should be sold, targeting 1.1184 On Friday, April 5th, 2019 U.S. job growth returned to trend last month as several variables that had dampened … Continued

Intermediate

Gold Hunted By Bears

Gold has endured a dreadful week The strength of the Dollar will continue to fetter gold There was a small bounce on Friday afternoon It was short-covering, the downtrend will resume on Monday Gold prices endured the worst week of March by the time trading in the U.S. had closed. The metal was weighed down … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD Still stumbles at the 200-day MA

The Euro was the weakest currency on Friday The EURUSD cannot break above to 200-Day Moving Average There may a small bounce on Monday morning As European slides into recession EURUSD will fall to 1.1000 The 200-day moving average (200 DMA) has continued to prove a stubborn barrier to the upward path of EURUSD. This … Continued

Intermediate

WTI’s weekly focus is supply

Oil market is focused on supply OPEC and OPEC + have controlled the high level of production Oil demand is expected to grow at a moderate pace in 2019 Technical sentiment is positive in the short-term The oil trading community is going to remain focused on global crude supplies amid signals that the surprisingly robust … Continued

Intermediate

WTI is Weakening on Growth & Supply Concerns

Oil market is focused on weakening growth Sellers are similarly concerned about the high level of production A survey of oil analysts is not optimistic on an upside resurgence Technical sentiment is broadly negative The oil trading community is going to remain focused on global crude supplies and the outlook for energy demand in the … Continued

Intermediate

USDJPY Could Bounce Lower off the 200-day Moving Average

USDJPY prices look set to break lower as sellers will appear at the 200dma The Japanese economy is stronger than has been acknowledged Technical sentiment start positive, however is turning negative The rolling 12-Month chart for USD/JPY illustrates that the spot price may encounter resistance at the 200-day moving average mark as is illustrated below. … Continued

Intermediate

Technicals suggest EURUSD Testing a support break

EURUSD prices look set to break lower within the corrective Sellers are growing in both number and volume A weak economic outlook has a heavy influence in dragging the Euro lower Technical sentiment is negative The rolling 12-Month chart for EURUSD illustrates that the Euro has been locked in a gently declining corrective channel since … Continued

Intermediate

What’s “Moo”ving Beef?

Live Cattle prices look set to break out of the long-term corrective Packers finally accepted higher pricing on Friday A cold weather period has a heavy influence Technical sentiment is positive From 2016 through to the end of 2018 it appeared that the price of Live Cattle was rotating with a regular cycle in a … Continued

Intermediate

Gold Rally Poised To Pause

Gold prices look limited over the short term USD tiredness at the end of the week helped push gold prices higher Technical sentiment is mixed A tightening labour market could suggest another Fed move   Gold prices have surged roughly 1.25% to the $1,320 area over the past week. The market was lifted by a … Continued

Intermediate

A Euro Breakout Against The Dollar: Or False Alarm?

EURUSD recouped broken support on Friday There is every prospect that has placed a small upside back in play Fed and ECB signals not the easiest to decipher Buy Euro to seek small upside gains, be ready to trade back and forth The market for EURUSD during last Friday, i.e. January 25th, 2019, saw the … Continued

Intermediate

With Oil, Keep Looking at Trade Data and News

WTI boosted by two clear driving forces, trade and supply Any recovery in trade relations between the U.S. and China not until end of January The decline in operating oil rigs in the U.S. will be reversed Selling will be the early form after a 3% gain on Friday The market’s WTI Crude Oil traders … Continued

Intermediate

A Parliament Of Preening Pharisees Can Scupper Sterling

EURGBP slipped across the board on Friday and hit 3-day lows There is every prospect that PM May’s deal will be defeated on Tuesday In that event of one should see Sterling tumble Bearish Sterling sentiment will prevail if UK muddles on to a delay, no-deal or another vote The market for EURGBP rose in … Continued

Intermediate

Natural Gas Market Outlook Looks Bleak

Natural Gas looks oversold after a 33% decline since December 10th Any recovery in prices should be capped at $3.16/Mm BTU In the event of stronger short-covering place a stop Bearish sentiment prevails and will take prices lower to $2.70 area The market for the natural gas market on the Nymex endured moderate week and … Continued

Intermediate

Gold Can Gain As A Savage Bear Stalks Stocks

US equities undermined as shutdown and trade standoff spooks the market This has allowed a recovery in gold prices Shorts have been squeezed out of the gold market Bullish sentiment will dominate prices toward 1265 Gold slipped on Friday, December 21st, 2018 by $8.95 or 0.71% to close at $1258.95/Troy Oz. This may have been … Continued

Intermediate

Whoever is Short the Euro Has The Upper Hand

ECB comments on the 13th undermined the Euro Any recovery in prices on Monday morning will be short lived No major reaction expected after FOMC on December 19th Bearish sentiment prevails and will take prices lower toward 1.1100 The Euro slipped on Thursday, December 13th when ECB President, Mario Draghi indicated that the central bank … Continued