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Author

Stephen Pope

Macroeconomic Strategist
http://spotlightideas.net/

Stephen Pope is the Managing Partner of Spotlight Group. He has worked in the world of finance since 1982 and has performed duties as a salesman, market maker trader and analyst. Stephen brings this wealth of experience gained at American, British, French, and Japanese institutions to bear in his analytical work.

He has a broad base of client service having advised national agencies such as Central Banks, Government Ministries, and Sovereign Wealth Funds and from the private sector, Commercial and Investment Banks, Insurance Companies, Pension Funds and Publicly Listed Corporations.
Clients have been covered in all geographic regions and time zones embracing 36 nations.

Stephen gained his BA (HONS) Economics (II.I) from the University of Warwick in 1982 and his MBA from Henley Management College in 1995.
He gained professional examination awards from the Association of International Bond Dealers (Now called the International Capital Markets Association) in 1988, is a member of the Financial Conduct Authority and has been a Fellow of the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment.


Intermediate

A Parliament Of Preening Pharisees Can Scupper Sterling

Posted on by Stephen Pope

EURGBP slipped across the board on Friday and hit 3-day lows There is every prospect that PM May’s deal will be defeated on Tuesday In that event of one should see Sterling tumble Bearish Sterling sentiment will prevail if UK muddles on to a delay, no-deal or another vote The market for EURGBP rose in … Continued

Intermediate

Natural Gas Market Outlook Looks Bleak

Posted on by Stephen Pope

Natural Gas looks oversold after a 33% decline since December 10th Any recovery in prices should be capped at $3.16/Mm BTU In the event of stronger short-covering place a stop Bearish sentiment prevails and will take prices lower to $2.70 area The market for the natural gas market on the Nymex endured moderate week and … Continued

Intermediate

Gold Can Gain As A Savage Bear Stalks Stocks

Posted on by Stephen Pope

US equities undermined as shutdown and trade standoff spooks the market This has allowed a recovery in gold prices Shorts have been squeezed out of the gold market Bullish sentiment will dominate prices toward 1265 Gold slipped on Friday, December 21st, 2018 by $8.95 or 0.71% to close at $1258.95/Troy Oz. This may have been … Continued

Intermediate

Whoever is Short the Euro Has The Upper Hand

Posted on by Stephen Pope

ECB comments on the 13th undermined the Euro Any recovery in prices on Monday morning will be short lived No major reaction expected after FOMC on December 19th Bearish sentiment prevails and will take prices lower toward 1.1100 The Euro slipped on Thursday, December 13th when ECB President, Mario Draghi indicated that the central bank … Continued

Intermediate

Wheat Technicals Are Bullish Across The Board

Posted on by Stephen Pope

USDA reports may reveal wheat planting is somewhat low this season A recovery in prices looks likely given positive technicals The quality of Russian product is declining Look for the bullish sentiment to prevail and will take prices higher If the whispers on the street are to be believed, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture … Continued

Intermediate

Oil market outlook looks bleak

Posted on by Stephen Pope

WTI is not at the bottom of its decline Any recovery in prices needs the Russians and Saudi’s to drive further output restrictions OPEC meets on December 6th, but all members are hurting Bearish sentiment prevails and will take prices lower The market for crude oil has not yet found a bottom and has exceeded … Continued

Intermediate

Dollar Bulls must be patient, Selling pressure will be overcome

Posted on by Stephen Pope

Selling of the U.S. Dollar Index on Friday may persist through Monday As the week pushes on, this will yield to new buying momentum The technical sentiment for the Dollar Index is strong up to the next FOMC New bullish sentiment will prevail and will take prices higher The investor base certainly lost no time … Continued

Intermediate

Gold – Silver ratio looking ready to reverse

Posted on by Stephen Pope

The Gold-Silver ratio meanders slowly in channels As the major players in precious metals increase the bullish position on both The technical sentiment for both is almost identical Look for the reversal of silver shorts to be the more significant play There is a ratio in financial markets that is sometime overlooked in the western … Continued

Intermediate

No Fireworks in the Oil Market; Prices Fizzle Out on over Supply

Posted on by Stephen Pope

Iran appears to be getting off a U.S. sanctions hook As the Russians, Saudi’s and U.S. ramp up oil production, the market has excess supply The technical sentiment for oil has spun around since my last note on WTI Bearish sentiment prevails and will take prices lower The market for crude oil has enjoyed a … Continued

Intermediate

EURUSD: Can New Euro Strength Be Sustained?

Posted on by Stephen Pope

Any hint of good news re Brexit helps the Euro in the short-term If Theresa May compromises with the EU there will be pressure on her at home There is too much hostility to the leading array of contenders…she is safe for now Beyond Brexit, it will be Italy that drags the Euro down The … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD: Two Curious Currencies

Posted on by Stephen Pope

U.S. equity declines have tripped the Dollar Last time the market had such loses was when the UK voted to leave the EU Who has the control over the economy, Chairman Powell or President Trump? There is a small matter of Brexit negotiations, they should put Sterling on the backfoot In the past week, over … Continued

Intermediate

Oil Traders to focus on Disruptions

Posted on by Stephen Pope

Iran will soon face more U.S. sanctions President Trump wants to force Iran to renegotiate its nuclear deal The technical sentiment for oil is as good as the week wears on There is a good chance of new prices hitting the $90 level…and beyond   In the week ahead oil traders will stay firmly focused … Continued

Intermediate

Hi Yo Silver, Away!

Posted on by Stephen Pope

Silver started Friday to the downside, this was quickly reversed It rose 2.98% in the session, the best one day move in Q3 this year The technical sentiment is as good as it could be, until the end of the week There is renewed interest in the metal; a push to $15.72 is likely   … Continued

Intermediate

GBPUSD suffers as UK faces up to a “No-Deal” risk

Posted on by Stephen Pope

  When is seemed that the UK might get a Brexit breakthrough Cable hit 1.3300 That was rapidly reversed as the EU27 rejected Chequers outright The technical sentiment is poor across all time measures The opposition are not offering any credible alternative solution…so sell Sterling Friday was a chance for the foreign exchange markets to … Continued

Intermediate

Sorry Soybeans Slump, Time to Seek a Bean Bounce

Posted on by Stephen Pope

Approximately 50% of U.S. soybeans were shipped to China in 2016 Trumps tariffs led to a retaliatory 25% levy being slapped on the U.S. crop The technical sentiment is as poor as it could be There is renewed whispers of further trade talks, so maybe a contrarian trade is in order In 2016 the leading … Continued

Intermediate

Dollar Loves Jobs Data; Not Thrilled

Posted on by Stephen Pope

Dollar was moved by the solid August jobs report Dollar driven by expectation of Fed action in September and December Trumps tariff tirade is still a cause for concern The short-term outlook for the Dollar Index to rally and test old resistance points The U.S. Dollar traded higher against other currencies on Friday, as better-than-expected … Continued

Intermediate

WTI Looks to the U.S. – Canada Trade

Posted on by Stephen Pope

Crude oil markets were unable to hold the high ground this week It has become bewitched by Dollar strength and U.S. – Canada trade talks Given 99% of Canada’s oil exports go to the U.S. … …The short-term outlook for oil is positive for a new test of $72/Barrel WTI crude oil broke through the … Continued

Intermediate

AUDUSD on Collision Course with Resistance

Posted on by Stephen Pope

Australia’s new PM is Scott Morrison as moderate Malcolm Turnbull is forced out The pair is pulled by commodity prices and Chinese trade Market trend is currently to head lower This can change on a break above 0.7400 The Politics Australia has a new Prime Minister (PM) after Scott Morrison mounted a late challenge during … Continued

Intermediate

EURGBP looking to press past 0.9100

Posted on by Stephen Pope

EUR/GBP is up for the third consecutive day The pair is resuming its main bull trend Market is trading above its key moving averages The target to the upside is located above and beyond 0.9000 Eurozone annual inflation rate was confirmed at 2.1% in July 2018, up from 2.0% in the previous month and the … Continued