- A plunge lower last week with global share markets plummeting in the wake of very negative, US ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing data, plus the heightened tension from the WTO ruling in favour of the US over the EU.
- However, the intraday rebound from last Thursday through Friday’s US Employment report and again to start this week has eased much of the negativity from last week’s selloff.
- This keeps risks higher in the very short-term, ahead of the US-Sino trade talks that are due to resume later this week.
- Here we focus on the US benchmark share average, the S&P 500.
S&P 500 E-Mini threat to the topside
A further rally Monday above 2953.25 resistance, to build on Friday’s strong recovery through key 2950.5 (that shifted the intermediate-term outlook back to a neutral range, switching the bias higher for Tuesday.
The early October strong recovery shifted the intermediate-term outlook back to a broader range, we see as 2995.0 to 2855.0.
- We see an upside bias for 2959.5 and 2965.5; break here aims for 2984/85, then maybe towards key 2995.0.
- But below 2933.75 opens risk down to 2928/23.25, maybe 2911/10.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 2995.0 to 2855.0.
- Upside Risks: Above 2995.0 sets an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 3025.75/3032.35, 3050.0 and 3095.5.
- Downside Risks: Below 2855.0 sees an intermediate-term bear trend to target 2811.0 and 2777.0.
4 Hour S&P 500 E-Mini Future Chart