Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- US equities fell to seven-month lows, with the S&P 500 down 2.1%, the Nasdaq dropping 3.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping 0.9% for the week, as rising oil prices and Middle East tensions fuelled stagflation fears and weakened risk appetite. A rotation into energy and materials alongside higher bond yields and firm commodity prices added further pressure to equities, reinforcing a shift toward defensive positioning.
- Ongoing Middle East tensions continue to drive market volatility, with oil prices remaining elevated above $110 per barrel amid supply disruptions and a persistent geopolitical risk premium, particularly as uncertainty surrounds the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicting signals on potential US–Iran negotiations have further dampened sentiment, leaving investors sceptical of a near-term resolution and concerned about prolonged inflation pressures and slower global growth.
- This holiday-shortened week due to Good Friday will feature the US Employment reports (due Friday when the cash and future markets are closed) alongside ADP Employment, and Retail Sales. UK GDP figures and Global PMI readings will complement this picture, offering insight into how economies are coping with higher energy prices and geopolitical risks, and helping shape expectations for growth, inflation, and central bank policy.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were lower.
- US and European bond yields were higher on the week.
- The US Dollar Index pushed higher close to a recent multi-month high.
- Gold futures hit an intraday, multi-month low, before a bounce.
- Oil futures prices rallied again, to a multi-year high close.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: Central bank activity is expected to be relatively quiet this week, with market attention instead turning to a series of speeches from Federal Reserve officials for further policy signals.
Macro Data Watch: The key macro data focus this week will be on Global PMI releases later in the week and the US Employment reports on Friday, alongside notable updates including CPI data from China and the EU early in the week, UK GDP on Tuesday, and US Retail Sales on Wednesday.
Cash and future markets will be closed on Friday 3rd April due to the Good Friday bank holiday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 03/30/2026 | EU Business Climate, Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator; German CPI and HICP |
| 03/31/2026 | Japanese CPI, Retail Trade and Unemployment Rate; German Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate; UK GDP; EU HICP; Canadian GDP; US Housing Price Index, Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings |
| 04/01/2026 | Global Manufacturing PMI; EU Unemployment Rate; US Retail Sales and ADP Employment Change |
| 04/02/2026 | US Challenger Job Cuts and Initial Jobless Claims |
| 04/03/2026 | Good Friday bank holiday; US and Chinese Service and Composite PMI; US Employment Reports |
