Longest US government shutdown ends, Nvidia earnings, FOMC Minutes and September Jobs report in focus

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

• US equities finished the week mixed, with the S&P 500 up 0.08%, the Dow rising 0.3%, and the Nasdaq down 0.45%, as investors rotated out of tech and AI names amid rising Treasury yields and global markets showed uneven performance.

• The longest US government shutdown ended after 43 days with a funding bill through January 30, 2026, allowing federal workers to return and receive back pay, restoring critical programs, and enabling delayed economic data including the September Jobs report to start being released, though gaps and potential imputation may limit the completeness of some datasets.
• Federal Reserve officials signaled a more cautious, hawkish stance on monetary policy amid persistent inflation and resilient economic activity, leading market expectations for a December rate cut to drop sharply to around 46% and highlighting deepening divisions within the FOMC.

• This week, investors will focus on Nvidia’s Q3 earnings on Wednesday, the delayed September US Jobs report on Thursday, and the October FOMC Minutes, as markets gauge AI demand, labor market conditions, and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts.

Global financial market developments

• US and global equity averages were choppy through the week, mostly posting modest gains.
• US and European bond yields were little changed, but slightly higher on the week
• The US Dollar Index was lower on the week.
• Gold futures rallied before plunging lower on high Friday.
• Oil futures prices were choppy, ending the week little changed.

Key this week

Central Bank Watch: This week’s central bank focus centres on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Meeting Minutes on Tuesday, followed by the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes on Wednesday, and the People’s Bank of China’s Interest Rate Decision on Thursday.

Macro Data Watch: With the US government shutdown now resolved, the key focus this week will be Thursday’s delayed September US jobs report. Other notable releases include Japanese GDP and Canadian CPI on Monday, UK CPI on Wednesday, and the Global Flash PMI on Friday.

Earnings Watch: The US earnings season is nearing its end, with Nvidia set to headline this week’s results on Wednesday, alongside notable reports from Home Depot on Tuesday and Walmart on Thursday.

Steve Miley (The Market Chartist)

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued