- A shift to “risk off” into Friday morning as global stock averages have setback and the US Dollar has broadly gained, with the Yen also a strong performer.
- This is due to rising tensions regarding Hong Kong, with China stating that they strongly oppose any interference by foreign countries in Hong Kong affairs and will take countermeasures against interference
- Although the US Dollar has pushed higher against most currencies, sending EURUSD slightly lower, we currently look for a EURUSD rebound.
EURUSD day trade outlook: Rebound bias
A Thursday setback after an initial prod higher to 1.1009, but whilst holding above 1.0900 support we still see a positive outlook from the latter May rally to push above 1.0896 for a Double Bottom, having held at the significant support trend line that comes from the March cycle low, to keep the risk back higher Friday.
- We see an upside bias for 1.0969, then 1.1009/19; a break above here aims for key 1.1039 and 1.1106.
- But below 1.0900 targets 1.0849, maybe even towards 1.0798.
EURUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early April selloff below 1.0782 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
- Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend for 1.0633 1.0500, 1.0340, maybe 1.0000.
- What changes this? Above 1.1039 sees an intermediate-term shift from bearish to neutral, and above 1.1147 to an intermediate-term bull trend.
4 Hour EURUSD Chart