New US equity markets records, as Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” is passed

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments

• Major U.S. indexes extended their rally as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh all-time highs and the Dow approached its record, with small-cap stocks outperforming amid optimism over resilient growth, improving trade relations, and strong jobs data.
• June’s jobs report showed strong gains of 147,000 payrolls and a dip in Unemployment to 4.1%, defying expectations despite emerging pockets of weakness and employer caution amid tariff uncertainty.
• President Trump signed his massive tax and spending package after Congress narrowly approved it along party lines, celebrating sweeping tax cuts and defense spending despite fierce criticism over cuts to healthcare and social programs.
• Investors are watching closely for the Fed’s June Meeting Minutes and the July 9 expiration of the U.S. tariff suspension, with markets weighing the risk that resilient jobs data and potential tariff hikes could delay rate cuts and unsettle equities heading into earnings season.

Global financial market developments

• US and global equity averages were mixed, with US averages nudging to new records, European averages marked time, whilst some Asian indices dipped..
• US and European bond yields were little changed, but slightly higher on the week
• The US Dollar Index rebounded slightly from a multi-year low.
• Gold futures posted modest gains, still within a wider range.
• Oil futures prices posted a modest rebound, from the June plunge from a multi-month peak.

Key this week

Central Bank Watch: The main central bank activities this week are the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement, Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference on Tuesday and the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes on Wednesday.

Macro Data Watch: Macro data is light this week, with the main macro data releases to look out for the EU and UK Retail Sales on Monday, Chinese CPI on Wednesday and the Canadian Employment Report on Friday.

Steve Miley (The Market Chartist)

Editor in chief

Steve Miley is the Market Chartist and has 32 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Mar... Continued