NZDUSD and AUDUSD Look To Re-Energise Bear Themes

Intermediate

Both the New Zealand and Australian Dollars have produced modest recovery effort from late November into early December against the US Dollar, but late last week these rebounds versus the US currency have started to fade.

This leaves the technical analysis FX forecasts still very negative for NZDUSD and AUDUSD on intermediate-term outlooks.

We anticipate the both these spot Forex rates will move to new setback close for Q4 before the end of the year. Furthermore, the risk is for the bearish seems to extend into early 2017 as the US Dollar continues its bullish trend.

NZDUSD

The mid-November breakdown through the multi-month “neckline” of the Head and Shoulders top from July, signalled an intermediate-term bearish shift, confirmed below .7030.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6948.
  • Below here targets .6800 and .6676/64.

What Changes This? Above .7403 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7485.

A negative tone down to probe .7123 support, to reinforce the Shooting Star pattern Thursday back from ahead of the .7228 level (back from .7222), favouring a negative theme into Monday.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias through .7121; break here aims for .7098/93, maybe as deep as .7066.
  • But above .7189 aims for .7222/28 and opens risk up to .7260.

Daily NZDUSD Chart

Daily NZDUSD chart

AUDUSD

The mid-November break of .7438 completed a multiple peak topping pattern, which leaves an intermediate-term bearish theme.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7284 and .7141.
  • Below here targets .7000, .6971 and .6825.

What Changes This? Above .7630 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7778.

A recovery failure Friday with a setback from ahead of .7508 resistance (from .7496), to again highlight reluctance to signal a better basing structure and a more bullish tone, leaving the risk back to the downside into Monday.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7431; break here aims for .7413/08 and .7396, maybe as deep as .7367/60.
  • But above .7496 opens risk up to .7508, maybe .7542

Daily AUDUSD Chart

Daily AUDUSD chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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