Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments
- Global indices ended the week lower and volatile as escalating Middle East tensions and a surge in oil prices dampened investor sentiment. U.S. indices declined, led by a 3% drop in the Dow and pushing U.S. crude above $90 per barrel.
- Oil prices surged sharply amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, with U.S. crude jumping 36% to around $90 per barrel and Brent rising 28%, as disruptions to supply through the Strait of Hormuz heightened global energy concerns
- U.S. economic data sent mixed signals, with ISM surveys showing continued expansion in both manufacturing and services during February, suggesting underlying resilience in economic activity. However, the labor market weakened as nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 and unemployment rose to 4.4%, complicating the outlook for Federal Reserve policy amid rising energy prices and persistent inflation pressures.
- Markets will closely monitor developments in the Middle East this week, with elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions likely to remain key drivers of sentiment. Attention will also focus on upcoming U.S. inflation data, both CPI and PCE.
Global financial market developments
- US and global equity averages were notably lower.
- US and European bond yields were notably higher on the week
- The US Dollar Index moved to a multi-month high.
- Gold futures were lower.
- Oil futures prices surged to a multi-year peak.
Key this week
Central Bank Watch: Central bank activity is relatively limited this week.
Macro Data Watch: A busy week for macro data releases, with the main highlights being US CPI figures on Wednesday followed by US PCE Inflation data on Friday. Other notable updates include Chinese CPI and Japanese GDP on Monday, alongside US GDP and the Canadian Employment Report due on Friday.
| Date | Major Macro Data |
| 03/09/2026 | Chinese CPI and PPI; German Industrial Production; EU Investor Confidence |
| 03/10/2026 | Japanese GDP; UK Retail Sales; Chinese Trade Report; US ADP Employment Change 4-week average and Existing Home Sales Change |
| 03/11/2026 | German HICP; UK Consumer Inflation Expectations; US CPI |
| 03/12/2026 | UK Industrial Production; US Building Permits, Housing Starts; Initial Jobless Claims and Monthly Budget Statement |
| 03/13/2026 | UK GDP and Manufacturing Production; EU Industrial Production; Canadian Employment Reports; US PCE, GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Spending, Personal Income, JOLTS Job Openings, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Inflation Expectations |
