Rate cut concerns weigh on the Australian Dollar

Intermediate
  • A better than anticipated Employment report for the Australia on Thursday initially saw a more positive tone for AUDUSD, but then a note from the Australian Investment Bank, Westpac that forecast two rate cuts for 2019 saw a selloff for AUDUSD.
  • This price action, alongside ongoing concerns regarding global growth (despite positive soundings from US-Sino trade talks), has sustained an intermediate-term bearish theme for AUDUSD into latter February and likely on into March.

AUDUSD intermediate-term bear theme reenergising

An initial prod higher Thursday through .7177/80 resistances, but then a plunge back lower through supports at .7100/7097 and into the .7077/70 support area, plus through the up trend line from early/mid-February, fully rejecting recent upside forces and shifting the risks lower for Friday.

The early February push .7073 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see a downside bias through .7071/70; break here aims for the key swing low at .7050, then .7024, maybe even the .7000/6991 area.
  • But above .7122 opens risk up to .7168.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6916.

  • Lower targets would be .6829 and .6738
  • What Changes This? Above .7246 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

 


Latest News

usdjpy
Yen stays strong in risk off scenario

Last Friday’s very weak German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data was another blow to the global economic backdrop, with concerns throughout this year of a global slowdown in China, through Asia Pacific and increasingly also in Europe. This has seen riskier asset classes come under negative forces over the past week into latter March, with … Continued

Euro vulnerability

A Euro plunge in the latter part of last week, on Friday driven by very weak German Purchasing Managers’ Index data. Furthermore, the US Dollar has seen broader strength again on Thursday-Friday against many major currencies, after US$ weakness was seen immediately after a far more dovish Federal reserve at their meeting on Wednesday. This … Continued

EURUSD Still stumbles at the 200-day MA

The Euro was the weakest currency on Friday The EURUSD cannot break above to 200-Day Moving Average There may a small bounce on Monday morning As European slides into recession EURUSD will fall to 1.1000 The 200-day moving average (200 DMA) has continued to prove a stubborn barrier to the upward path of EURUSD. This … Continued

Current Market Analysis
Euro breaks down, GBPCAD threatens upside

US Dollar Index holds support and rebounds EURUSD seeds multiple negative signals, downside risks GBPUSD sends buy signal GBPCAD sets up more bullish AUDUSD negative and USDCAD buy signal USDTRY and USDBRL surge

Leave a Reply

Your e-mail address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Forex Brokers in your location