Rate cut concerns weigh on the Australian Dollar

Intermediate
  • A better than anticipated Employment report for the Australia on Thursday initially saw a more positive tone for AUDUSD, but then a note from the Australian Investment Bank, Westpac that forecast two rate cuts for 2019 saw a selloff for AUDUSD.
  • This price action, alongside ongoing concerns regarding global growth (despite positive soundings from US-Sino trade talks), has sustained an intermediate-term bearish theme for AUDUSD into latter February and likely on into March.

AUDUSD intermediate-term bear theme reenergising

An initial prod higher Thursday through .7177/80 resistances, but then a plunge back lower through supports at .7100/7097 and into the .7077/70 support area, plus through the up trend line from early/mid-February, fully rejecting recent upside forces and shifting the risks lower for Friday.

The early February push .7073 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see a downside bias through .7071/70; break here aims for the key swing low at .7050, then .7024, maybe even the .7000/6991 area.
  • But above .7122 opens risk up to .7168.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6916.

  • Lower targets would be .6829 and .6738
  • What Changes This? Above .7246 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

 


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