- A corrective setback for the major “risk currencies” from the middle of this week, for the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars.
- We see this as corrective in nature, with the underlying “risk on” theme intact, driven by:
- The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine announcement
- A Joe Biden victory
- An expected split Congress, the Republicans likely holding the Senate
- The slowing of the rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe, with lockdown measures kicking in
- Here we look at the AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD Forex rates from a technical analysis perspective.
AUDUSD day trade outlook: Setback, looking for a rebound
Again, a consolidation Thursday (as seen since Tuesday) having recently stalled at our .7318/19 resistance area but setting back below the .7236/28 support zone to hold above .7199, to thereby hold onto upside pressures from Monday’s surge higher, to keep risks higher for Friday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for .7318/19 and .7340/45.
- But below .7199 aims for .7142.
AUDUSD intermediate-term outlook
The early November push above the key .7244 resistance signalled an intermediate-term shift to bullish.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for .7413 and .7677.
- What changes this? Below .7046 sees the intermediate-term bull trend switch to neutral and below .6987 to a bear trend.
NZDUSD day trade outlook: Correction from another new multi-month high
A pop higher Thursday to .6914 to build on Wednesday’s surge after the RBNZ, plus Monday’s aggressive rally above key resistance at a 2019 peak at .6837, and despite a setback below initial support at .683, whilst holding above .6792 to leave upside forces from the entire November rally, to keep the bias higher Friday.
Day trade setup
- We see an upside bias for .6877 and .6914.; a break here aims for 6923.
- But below .6792 maybe opens risk down to .6759.
NZDUSD intermediate-term outlook
The late October push above .key .6682/88 resistances signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.
- Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to target .6969/70 and maybe .7395/7400.
- What changes this? Below .6486 sets an intermediate-term bear trend.
USDCAD day trade outlook: Clinging to a bear bias
A further rebound Thursday through 1.3097 and 1.3148 resistances to stall at 1.3170, and now whilst below 1.3200 we cling onto negative forces from this week’s earlier, significant sell-off through the key 1.2990 low from September and the critical 1.2948 low from December 2019, for a multi-year low at 1.2924, to keep the risk lower for Friday.
Day trade setup
- We see a downside bias for 1.3124 and 1.3081; a break here aims for 1.3026/23, maybe even 1.2982/72.
- But above 1.3200 opens risk up to 1.3254 and possibly towards 1.3300.
USDCAD intermediate-term outlook
The April push below 1.3922 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
- Downside risks: We see downside risk for 1.2799 and 1.2550.
- What changes this? Above 1.3418/20 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to bullish.
