“Risk currencies” dip, but stay bullish (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)

  • A corrective setback for the major “risk currencies” from the middle of this week, for the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars.
  • We see this as corrective in nature, with the underlying “risk on” theme intact, driven by:
    • The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine announcement
    • A Joe Biden victory
    • An expected split Congress, the Republicans likely holding the Senate
    • The slowing of the rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe, with lockdown measures kicking in
  • Here we look at the AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD Forex rates from a technical analysis perspective.

AUDUSD day trade outlook: Setback, looking for a rebound 

Again, a consolidation Thursday (as seen since Tuesday) having recently stalled at our .7318/19 resistance area but setting back below the .7236/28 support zone to hold above .7199, to thereby hold onto upside pressures from Monday’s surge higher, to keep risks higher for Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for .7318/19 and .7340/45.
  • But below .7199 aims for .7142.

AUDUSD intermediate-term outlook

The early November push above the key .7244 resistance signalled an intermediate-term shift to bullish.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for .7413 and .7677.
  • What changes this? Below .7046 sees the intermediate-term bull trend switch to neutral and below .6987 to a bear trend.
8 Hour AUDUSD Chart
8 Hour AUDUSD Chart

NZDUSD day trade outlook: Correction from another new multi-month high 

A pop higher Thursday to .6914 to build on Wednesday’s surge after the RBNZ, plus Monday’s aggressive rally above key resistance at a 2019 peak at .6837, and despite a setback below initial support at .683, whilst holding above .6792 to leave upside forces from the entire November rally, to keep the bias higher Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for .6877 and .6914.; a break here aims for 6923.
  • But below .6792 maybe opens risk down to .6759.

NZDUSD intermediate-term outlook

The late October push above .key .6682/88 resistances signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to target .6969/70 and maybe .7395/7400.
  • What changes this? Below .6486 sets an intermediate-term bear trend.
8 Hour NZDUSD Chart
8 Hour NZDUSD Chart

USDCAD day trade outlook: Clinging to a bear bias

A further rebound Thursday through 1.3097 and 1.3148 resistances to stall at 1.3170, and now whilst below 1.3200 we cling onto negative forces from this week’s earlier, significant sell-off through the key 1.2990 low from September and the critical 1.2948 low from December 2019, for a multi-year low at 1.2924, to keep the risk lower for Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3124 and 1.3081; a break here aims for 1.3026/23, maybe even 1.2982/72.
  • But above 1.3200 opens risk up to 1.3254 and possibly towards 1.3300.

USDCAD intermediate-term outlook

The April push below 1.3922 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see downside risk for 1.2799 and 1.2550.
  • What changes this? Above 1.3418/20 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to bullish.
8 Hour USDCAD Chart
8 Hour USDCAD Chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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