“Risk currencies” dip, but stay bullish (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)

Intermediate
  • A corrective setback for the major “risk currencies” from the middle of this week, for the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars.
  • We see this as corrective in nature, with the underlying “risk on” theme intact, driven by:
    • The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine announcement
    • A Joe Biden victory
    • An expected split Congress, the Republicans likely holding the Senate
    • The slowing of the rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe, with lockdown measures kicking in
  • Here we look at the AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD Forex rates from a technical analysis perspective.

AUDUSD day trade outlook: Setback, looking for a rebound 

Again, a consolidation Thursday (as seen since Tuesday) having recently stalled at our .7318/19 resistance area but setting back below the .7236/28 support zone to hold above .7199, to thereby hold onto upside pressures from Monday’s surge higher, to keep risks higher for Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for .7318/19 and .7340/45.
  • But below .7199 aims for .7142.

AUDUSD intermediate-term outlook

The early November push above the key .7244 resistance signalled an intermediate-term shift to bullish.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for .7413 and .7677.
  • What changes this? Below .7046 sees the intermediate-term bull trend switch to neutral and below .6987 to a bear trend.
8 Hour AUDUSD Chart
8 Hour AUDUSD Chart

NZDUSD day trade outlook: Correction from another new multi-month high 

A pop higher Thursday to .6914 to build on Wednesday’s surge after the RBNZ, plus Monday’s aggressive rally above key resistance at a 2019 peak at .6837, and despite a setback below initial support at .683, whilst holding above .6792 to leave upside forces from the entire November rally, to keep the bias higher Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for .6877 and .6914.; a break here aims for 6923.
  • But below .6792 maybe opens risk down to .6759.

NZDUSD intermediate-term outlook

The late October push above .key .6682/88 resistances signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to target .6969/70 and maybe .7395/7400.
  • What changes this? Below .6486 sets an intermediate-term bear trend.
8 Hour NZDUSD Chart
8 Hour NZDUSD Chart

USDCAD day trade outlook: Clinging to a bear bias

A further rebound Thursday through 1.3097 and 1.3148 resistances to stall at 1.3170, and now whilst below 1.3200 we cling onto negative forces from this week’s earlier, significant sell-off through the key 1.2990 low from September and the critical 1.2948 low from December 2019, for a multi-year low at 1.2924, to keep the risk lower for Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3124 and 1.3081; a break here aims for 1.3026/23, maybe even 1.2982/72.
  • But above 1.3200 opens risk up to 1.3254 and possibly towards 1.3300.

USDCAD intermediate-term outlook

The April push below 1.3922 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see downside risk for 1.2799 and 1.2550.
  • What changes this? Above 1.3418/20 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to bullish.
8 Hour USDCAD Chart
8 Hour USDCAD Chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

Comment on this video

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Latest Related News

Markets keep the party going, despite surging US COVID-19 cases

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A fairly quiet week on the macroeconomic and geopolitical front, with the holiday shortened session in the US on Thursday and Friday because of Thanksgiving.The main development was on the US political side, as the Presidential transition of power has started properly, and although the Trump administration continues dispute the election result, they have allowed Biden’s team to start the transition. Also,… Continued

US Dollar stays weak as AUDUSD and USDCAD approach key levels

Dollar Index reaches final major support (DXY forecast)Euro breaks up (EURUSD forecast)Pound posts negative (GBPUSD forecast)Aussie reaches major monthly resistance (AUDUSD forecast)Dollar-CAD approaches its major support zone (USDCAD forecast) Continued

NZD leads “risk” currencies higher – NZDUSD, AUDUSD, and USDCAD forecasts

A solid consolidation tone since midweek, but November strength seen across the major “commodity” or “risk” currencies (the New Zealand, Australian and Canadian Dollars) remains intact.The “risk on” price action is still being assisted by:Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca/ Oxford COVID-19 vaccine hopesExtension of the Biden bounceMixed, but marginally positive economic data compared with consensusHere we look at the NZDUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD charts and… Continued

AUDUSD Expects to See More Upside Activity – Elliott wave analysis

On the 4h chart of AUDUSD we can see market trading in a bullish price move, commonly named an impulse. An impulse is a five-wave move, that trades into the direction of the stronger trend (in our case this is to the upside). That said, we know that nothing moves in straight lines, which means that after an 1-2-3-4-5 move develops, a temporary A-B-C correction… Continued

“Risk on” mode reflected by “commodity currency” resilience

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The announcement last Monday from Moderna that their COVID-19 vaccine produced very positive trial results sustained the prior “risk on” theme, evident after the similar announcement from Pfizer the Monday before. This “risk on” tone was further reinforced by another positive statement from the Astra Zeneca/ Oxford University trial in the week.On the US politics side, there is still a negative impact… Continued

Forex Brokers in your location


SIGN UP

72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.


SIGN UP

74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.


SIGN UP

75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.


SIGN UP

76.4% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.