“Risk currencies” plunge (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD forecasts)

  • The major “risk currencies”, the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars have sold off against the US Dollar, as global equities have plunged, renewing the correlation we would expected, which had to some extent broken down in October (as we looked at in our article here last week).
  • The still further aggressive shift to a “risk off” scenario is still being driven by:
    • An ongoing surge in COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths in Europe and the US
    • More forceful regional/ national lockdowns in Europe.
    • Practically no hope of a US economic COVID-19 package ahead of the US election next Tuesday
    • Concerns as to the aftermath of the US election and a potential lengthy process.
  • Here we look at AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD from a technical analysis perspective, for today and into early November.

AUDUSD day trade outlook: Intermediate -term bearish shift below .7002/00

Again, a sell-off on Thursday through .7035 and .7017 supports and to just prod at key .7002/00 (to 6999), to signal an intermediate-term shift to bearish, to reinforce Wednesday’s plunge down from our .7158 resistance, to renew bigger negative forces from the erratic breakdown from early September, to keep the threat to the downside for Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for .6999 and .6959; a break here aims for .6920/18 and maybe even .6874.
  • But above .7076 opens risk up to .7109/10 and possibly .7158.

AUDUSD intermediate-term outlook

The late October push below the key .7002/00 support area signalled an intermediate-term shift to bearish.

  • Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for .6829 and .6773.
  • What changes this? Above .7244 see the intermediate-term bear trend switch straight to a bull trend.
8 Hour AUDUSD Chart
8 Hour AUDUSD Chart

NZDUSD day trade outlook: Threat to the downside

A probe lower Thursday below .6626 and .6605/6599 supports to .6594, to reinforce Wednesday’s sell-off through .6668/60, to further reject upside forces from last week’s push above key .6682/88 resistances (that shifted the intermediate-term view to bullish), to keep the threat lower for Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see a downside bias for .6594; a break here aims for .6549/43 and maybe even .6508.
  • But above .6660 aims for .6689/90 and maybe opens risk up to .6724.

NZDUSD intermediate-term outlook

The late October push above .key .6682/88 resistances signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend to target .6798, .6969/70 and maybe .7395/7400.
  • What changes this? Below .6486 sets an intermediate-term bear trend.
8 Hour NZDUSD Chart
8 Hour NZDUSD Chart

USDCAD day trade outlook: Surge keeps risks higher for key 1.3418/19

A Thursday spike higher above 1.3334/41 and 1.3381 resistances to 1.3390, to build on Wednesday’s surge higher and Tuesday’s bounce from 1.3138, sustaining positive pressures from Monday’s strong rally to reverse the down trend line from late September, to keep the risk higher for Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3390; a break here maybe aims for key 1.3418/19, even towards 1.3460/83.
  • But below 1.3273 quickly opens risk down to 1.3231 and possibly towards 1.3141/38.

USDCAD intermediate-term outlook

The April push below 1.3922 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

  • Downside risks: We see downside risk for 1.2990/1.2948, 1.2799 and 1.2550.
  • What changes this? Above 1.3418/20 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to bullish.
8 Hour USDCAD Chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

Comment on this video

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Latest Related News

Markets keep the party going, despite surging US COVID-19 cases

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments A fairly quiet week on the macroeconomic and geopolitical front, with the holiday shortened session in the US on Thursday and Friday because of Thanksgiving.The main development was on the US political side, as the Presidential transition of power has started properly, and although the Trump administration continues dispute the election result, they have allowed Biden’s team to start the transition. Also,… Continued

US Dollar stays weak as AUDUSD and USDCAD approach key levels

Dollar Index reaches final major support (DXY forecast)Euro breaks up (EURUSD forecast)Pound posts negative (GBPUSD forecast)Aussie reaches major monthly resistance (AUDUSD forecast)Dollar-CAD approaches its major support zone (USDCAD forecast) Continued

NZD leads “risk” currencies higher – NZDUSD, AUDUSD, and USDCAD forecasts

A solid consolidation tone since midweek, but November strength seen across the major “commodity” or “risk” currencies (the New Zealand, Australian and Canadian Dollars) remains intact.The “risk on” price action is still being assisted by:Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca/ Oxford COVID-19 vaccine hopesExtension of the Biden bounceMixed, but marginally positive economic data compared with consensusHere we look at the NZDUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD charts and… Continued

AUDUSD Expects to See More Upside Activity – Elliott wave analysis

On the 4h chart of AUDUSD we can see market trading in a bullish price move, commonly named an impulse. An impulse is a five-wave move, that trades into the direction of the stronger trend (in our case this is to the upside). That said, we know that nothing moves in straight lines, which means that after an 1-2-3-4-5 move develops, a temporary A-B-C correction… Continued

“Risk on” mode reflected by “commodity currency” resilience

Macroeconomic/ geopolitical developments The announcement last Monday from Moderna that their COVID-19 vaccine produced very positive trial results sustained the prior “risk on” theme, evident after the similar announcement from Pfizer the Monday before. This “risk on” tone was further reinforced by another positive statement from the Astra Zeneca/ Oxford University trial in the week.On the US politics side, there is still a negative impact… Continued

Forex Brokers in your location


72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.


74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.


75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.


76.4% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.