Risk on theme resumes – S&P 500 Forecast

  • A surge higher by US and global equity averages to start this week, with the US board benchmark index future, the S&P 500 E-Mini hitting another new record level on Monday and in overnight trading.
  • This has reflected a rejection by markets of fears and negative pressures from an escalation of the conflict that began 2020 between the US and Iran.
  • In addition, with the US and China due to sign the phase one trade deal on Wednesday this week, some further positive sounding regarding trade relations between these countries was highlighted by the US on Monday dropping the term “currency manipulator” in regard to China.
  • This helped stock higher, alongside positive anticipation for earnings season, which kicks off in the US in earnest this week, with major US financials reports today.

S&P 500 E-Mini Futures day trade outlook: Bull threats

A Monday rebound through 3277.25 resistance and then the Friday record high at 3287.0, overnight up to 3296.75, and despite a setback from here. to reinforce bull pressures from last week’s aggressive selloff and recovery from new key support at 3181.0, to aim higher for Tuesday.

  • We see an upside bias for the new cycle high at 3296.75; break here quickly aims for 3300.0 and maybe 3309.5.
  • But below 3268.0 quickly targets 3260.75, then aims for 3252.0.

Intermediate-term outlook

A December surge through the key 3158.0 peak signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.

Upside risks: We see an upside risk for 3337.75 and 3500.0.

What changes this? Below 3181.0 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to an intermediate-term bear theme.

4 Hour S&P 500 E-Mini Future Chart

S&P 500 chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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