- A more bearish tone for global equity indices over the past 24 hours after a more erratic theme this week, as markets now shift back towards the late February “risk off” fear phase.
- This has seen the rebound and basing attempts that began March starting to be dismantled.
- The risk is for the current bear move lows to be retested, if not today, going into next week.
- Here we focus on future on the German benchmark equity index, the DAX.
DAX future day trade outlook: Plunge, aiming lower
A Thursday plunge back lower through notable 11841.5 support, to completely reverse the Wednesday recovery attempt (just above resistance at 12269 to 12275.5), then still lower overnight/ this morning through the notable 11731/698 supports, further damaging the early March rebound and base effort, to aim back lower Friday.
· We see a downside bias for 11646; a break below aims for the bear move low at 11617 and the 11500/474, maybe 11416 and even 11257.
· But above 11862 targets 11988/12004.5, which we would look to try to cap; above opens risk up towards 12119, 12219.5 and 12269/275.5.
DAX future intermediate-term outlook
The late February plunge below 13219 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.
· Downside risks: We see an intermediate-term bear trend and risk for 11474 and 11257, maybe 10000.
· What changes this? Above 13158.5 sees an intermediate-term range and through the bear gap at 13421-492.5 an intermediate-term bull trend.
Daily DAX future Chart