Stocks averages signal bull trend threat (DAX forecast)

Intermediate
  • A surge higher for global stock averages on Thursday to start to resolve the indecisive tone across indices from the past 2-3 weeks to a more bullish outcome.
  • This was driven by a far better than expected US Employment report for June, with the belief in a strong re-opening of the global economy outweighing the threats from the global rise in new COVID-19 cases (particularly in the southern US states).
  • Here we look at the German benchmark stock index future, our DAX forecast for today and into July.

DAX day trade outlook: Aiming to the topside 

Day trade update and view

An aggressive rally on Thursday above the topping trend line from mid-June and numerous resistance barriers as high as the 12591 swing peak, up to 12644.5, to reject short-term bearish pressures from the indecisive consolidation phase from mid-June, to switch the risks higher for Friday.

Day trade setup

  • We see an upside bias for 12644.5 and 12770.5; a break here aims for 12855, maybe the cycle peak at 12934, even 13000.
  • But below 12423.5 opens risk down to 12303.5 and possibly 12218/210.

DAX intermediate-term outlook

The late May rally above 11417.5 signalled an intermediate-term shift from a bear trend to a broad, neutral range and the acceleration above the 12275.5 swing peak from early March, sets an intermediate-term bull trend.

  • Upside risks: We see an intermediate-term bull trend and risk for 13824 and 15000.
  • What changes this? Below 11589.5 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.
6 Hour DAX Chart
6 Hour DAX Chart

Editor in chief

Steve Miley has 29 years of financial market experience and as a seasoned expert now has many responsibilities. He is the founder, Director and Primary Analyst at The Market Chartist, the Editor-in...continued

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